Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research, a research and analytics firm, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 250 where she reiterates her view that the US is already in recession, explains the "collapse in confidence" spreading through markets, and evaluates the growing tension between President Trump and Fed Chair Powell. Booth reveals concerning trends in consumer credit, employment data, and housing that mainstream statistics aren't capturing.

Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals.

https://monetary-metals.com/julia

A global thought leader in monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded QI Research in 2015. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets. Prior to QI Research, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy. DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed-income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.

Links:

QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/subscriptions/

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth

Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/

Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

Timestamps:

00:00 - Introduction

03:31 - Discussion on US exceptionalism and capital migration out of US dollar assets

06:50 - Exploring the implications of collapsing confidence

08:35 - Trump's Truth Social post about Powell and interest rates

11:59 - Federal Reserve's independence and potential rate cut decisions

15:20 - Discussion on whether rate cuts are necessary and timing

16:02 - Explanation of Fed blackout period and limitations on communication

17:59 - Analysis of Trump's strategy regarding Fed commentary

19:17 - Consumer

22:20 - CEO confidence decline, reduced capital expenditures, and potential layoffs

23:47 - Discussion on high unemployment claim rejection rates (44%)

25:19 - Effects on gig economy and discretionary spending like rideshare services

27:03 - Confirmation that we are in a recession

31:34 - Housing market assessment and discussion of market conditions

34:05 - Housing price outlook and structural issues

36:00 - Closing thoughts