Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog and author of "Inflated: Money, Debt and the American Dream," returns to the show with a monthly update on markets and the economy.

Sponsors:

Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia

In this episode, Whalen argues the Fed's easy money era is over, with no rate cuts coming this year and traditional monetary policy failing to help Main Street. He warns of a "silent subprime crisis" brewing in multifamily real estate and sees stagflation ahead - low growth with persistent inflation eating away at real purchasing power. Whalen advocates for gold as protection against currency debasement and explains why recession odds have dropped to 27% despite structural economic challenges from commercial real estate to student loan repayments as pandemic-era programs wind down.

Links:    

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/   

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Timestamps:

00:10 - Introduction of Chris Whalen

02:11 - Big picture market outlook and elevated interest rates

04:30 - No rate cuts coming this year discussion

05:38 - Trump's "big beautiful bill" and Senate dynamics

06:17 - Fed balance sheet reduction and inflation persistence

08:02 - Silent subprime crisis in multifamily real estate

09:13 - Mixed bag stock market outlook explanation

10:42 - Recession probability

13:20 - Real estate opportunities and putting deals together

14:04 - Jay Gould and Jim Fisk arbitrage between gold and paper

16:57 - Fed's 2% inflation policy and its impact on savers

18:20 - Gold as anti-dollar hedge discussion

19:38 - Fall of fiat and return to sound money debate

21:00 - Why dropping rates no longer stimulates Main Street

22:13 - Chris's proposal to freeze government spending

24:11 - Banking system fluff and lack of credit demand

25:46 - Real vs nominal growth and stagflation

27:43 - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac conservatorship discussion

30:00 - Closing thoughts and where to find Chris's work