Melody Wright, author of M3 Melody Substack, returns to the show for episode 284 where she delivers a stark assessment of the housing market.

Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals.

https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:

YouTube; https://www.youtube.com/@m3_melody

X: https://x.com/m3_melody

Substack: https://m3melody.substack.com/

Timestamps

0:00 Welcome and introduction - Melody Wright returns to the show

1:26 Big picture housing outlook - abysmal spring and summer selling seasons

3:42 New vs existing home price inversion - builders offering major incentives

5:02 First-time home buyers at record lows since 1980s tracking

7:17 Investment-driven housing market - not about homeownership anymore

9:33 Owner occupancy fraud - FHA program abuse by investors

12:06 Mortgage fraud prevalence - 30% chance when investors involved

13:46 Julia's first-time homebuyer dilemma - waiting for prices to correct

15:04 Demographics and housing supply - 15.6 million boomers leaving by 2035

17:52 North Carolina housing market turning - hope for buyers

19:15 The "Zest effect" - emotional attachment to home value estimates

20:20 Housing bubble worse than 2008 - fueled by speculation

22:13 Insurance crisis - 50% increases tipping people into delinquency

23:05 October 1st FHA changes - loan modification program ending

23:25 Spring/summer seasons characterized as "abysmal"

24:20 Tracking 2008 patterns - seasonal price peak already passed

26:28 Fed rate cuts unlikely to impact housing significantly

28:13 Where to find Melody's work and parting thoughts