The UK had local elections at the start of May and the results are not overly surprising in my opinion. I’m sure that Frank Wright would agree with my sentiment when I say that it appears that some common sense seems to have returned to the political spectrum in the UK.

Results

Source

Therefore, seeing the results from the local elections was very pleasing. Reform are NOT perfect (no person, politician or political party is) but it seems as though people are ready for a change.

Our friends over at Polymarket.com have got just a 4% chance of current Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer being out before July. Personally, I think that this is quite high as Labour currently has a majority in parliament. You can follow that market here.

The next General Election will be in 2029 - still 4 years away. Of course, this could all change between now and then if a GE is called, although I suspect that this will be incredibly unlikely given these recent results.

People are calling out for change, and it is no wonder why!

The same BBC article had the following main bullet points.

Why has this happened?

The people look like they have had enough and for some very good reasons, including:

* Council tax and utility bill hikes (Poor energy policies/potentially Bankrupt councils etc contributing to this)

* Challenges with immigration (going back to the 1990’s)

* Major crack downs on free speech

* Two-tiered policing achieving two-tiered results

* Governments continually focusing on the wrong things

All of the above is leading to a more fractured country.

The results from the 23 local elections show areas where there has been a change in control of the local council! Light Blue = Reform. Orange = Liberal Democrats

3 Contrarian Capitalist takeaways

1 - This could be the end of 2 party politics for now

The Conservatives took an absolute beating. Labour did not fare any better. Reform are on the march and the Liberal Democrats likely benefited from people that wanted a change but did NOT want to vote for Reform. Whilst it is personally difficult to take Ed Davey seriously, the results speak for themselves and we could be seeing a shift in political power.

2 - If you are promising a change then you are in the driving seat

This is where Reform stand out. They want change. You want change. They are promising change. What a political party says and does are 2 different things most of the time, yet if Nigel Farage and Reform take power in the next general election, then they will have to deliver.

For now, they have control of a lot of local councils and a couple of mayorships. It is imperative that they deliver in their local areas as this could then springboard 2029 and beyond.

3 - The results are damning for the Labour + Conservative parties

A lot of this can be placed at the feet of Sir Keir Starmer and the government decision on the winter fuel allowances for pensioners. We have also been various Labour run councils go bankrupt in the last few years. This first test of the polls was an absolute failure for Labour.

The Conservatives continue to go from bad to worse. The were reduced to their fewest MP’s ever last July and now this trend is continuing as they lost 674 local seats. This is an annihilation and it seems as though there is no way back at present.

Summary

These results provide a big hope for 2029. Reform and the Liberal Democrats have to deliver in the local areas. Should they achieve this then the 2029 General Election is going to be one of the most interesting elections that we have ever had.

No party is perfect, yet these results show that people are ready for a change and that they are more than willing to vote for it.

NB - I would personally like to see a UK DOGE. This would help to shape things up.

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