2026 Real Estate and Non-Performing Notes Predictions

In this episode of the Paper Trail Podcast, Chris shares his top 10 predictions for the real estate and lending markets in 2026. He discusses tighter lending standards, rising defaults, and the importance of being a disciplined operator. Key trends include the tightening of investor space lending conditions, challenges in the multifamily sector, struggles for sponsors operating outside their expertise, a slowdown in fix-and-flip activity, the rise of build-to-rent, increased defaults on investor loans, the complexities of judicial foreclosures, potential declines in home prices in booming states like Florida and Texas, and the predicted growth of 7E Investments. Chris emphasizes the necessity for consistency, strategic focus, and disciplined underwriting in navigating the year ahead.

00:00 Introduction and Recap

00:12 2026 Real Estate Predictions Overview

01:05 Trend 1: Tightening Lending Conditions

04:07 Trend 2: Multifamily Market Challenges

05:42 Trend 3: Struggles of Inexperienced Sponsors

09:01 Trend 4: Decline in Fix and Flip Activity

10:15 Trend 5: Build to Rent Opportunities

13:31 Trend 6: Rising Defaults on Investor Loans

15:59 Trend 7: Owner-Occupied Market Insights

19:10 Trend 8: Judicial Foreclosure Challenges

23:52 Trend 9: Home Price Declines in Key States

26:18 Trend 10: Growth Projections for 2026

27:47 Conclusion and Final Thoughts