2026 Real Estate and Non-Performing Notes Predictions

In this episode of the Paper Trail Podcast, Chris shares his top 10 predictions for the real estate and lending markets in 2026. He discusses tighter lending standards, rising defaults, and the importance of being a disciplined operator. Key trends include the tightening of investor space lending conditions, challenges in the multifamily sector, struggles for sponsors operating outside their expertise, a slowdown in fix-and-flip activity, the rise of build-to-rent, increased defaults on investor loans, the complexities of judicial foreclosures, potential declines in home prices in booming states like Florida and Texas, and the predicted growth of 7E Investments. Chris emphasizes the necessity for consistency, strategic focus, and disciplined underwriting in navigating the year ahead.

00:00 Introduction and Recap

00:12 2026 Real Estate Predictions Overview

01:05 Trend 1: Tightening Lending Conditions

04:07 Trend 2: Multifamily Market Challenges

05:42 Trend 3: Struggles of Inexperienced Sponsors

09:01 Trend 4: Decline in Fix and Flip Activity

10:15 Trend 5: Build to Rent Opportunities

13:31 Trend 6: Rising Defaults on Investor Loans

15:59 Trend 7: Owner-Occupied Market Insights

19:10 Trend 8: Judicial Foreclosure Challenges

23:52 Trend 9: Home Price Declines in Key States

26:18 Trend 10: Growth Projections for 2026

27:47 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

In this episode of the Paper Trail podcast, Chris reviews his 2025 predictions and evaluates his accuracy, covering essential aspects such as interest rates, home prices, mortgage defaults, and the overall economy. He reflects on the media's portrayal of real estate, assesses the impact of interest rates and home pricing, and provides an in-depth analysis of mortgage defaults and delinquencies. The episode also predicts future market trends and emphasizes the importance of real estate experience.

Additionally, Chris touches on short-term rentals, multifamily properties, seller financing, and the economic pressures facing households. This reflective analysis sets the stage for understanding current market dynamics and future forecasts in real estate.

00:00 Introduction and Episode Overview

00:42 Reflecting on 2025 Predictions

02:01 Interest Rates Analysis

04:08 Home Prices Trends

07:38 Mortgage Defaults and Delinquencies

11:41 Economic Pressures and Household Impact

15:58 Short-Term Rentals and Market Shifts

23:34 Fix and Flip Investor Loans

27:24 Macro Observations and Real Estate Trends

31:43 Conclusion and Future Predictions

In this episode of the Paper Trail Podcast, Chris Seveney breaks down the most common misconceptions surrounding DSCR (Debt Service Coverage Ratio) loans. Whether you’re a first-time real estate investor or looking to scale your portfolio, this no-fluff episode is packed with insights that could save you time, money, and frustration.

00:00 Introduction and Overview

01:04 Understanding DSCR Loans

01:55 Myth 1: Credit Score Doesn't Matter

04:13 Myth 2: 100% Financing

05:56 Myth 3: Only for Commercial Properties

07:55 Myth 4: No Documentation Required

10:06 Myth 5: Funding Rehabs or Fix and Flips

11:59 Myth 6: Quick Closures

13:31 Myth 7: Prepayment Penalties

18:11 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Understanding Recent Changes in Credit Scores and Mortgage Terms

In this episode of the Paper Trail podcast, Chris discusses two significant topics affecting the note investing space: the potential for 50-year mortgages and changes in the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac credit score requirements. The host explains how the removal of the 620 credit score floor could impact loan qualification and why the idea of 50-year mortgages may not gain widespread traction. Emphasizing the importance of understanding the 'rules of the game,' the host advises investors to stay focused on their business fundamentals and not get distracted by industry hype and external chatter.

00:00 Introduction and Episode Overview

01:01 Credit Score Changes and Their Impact

03:18 The 50-Year Mortgage: Pros and Cons

06:03 Focus: The Key to Successful Investing

11:15 Understanding the Rules of the Game

19:55 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

In this episode of the Paper Trail Podcast, host Chris shares insightful stories from his years of experience in note investing. He reflects on his journey since rebranding from the Good Deeds Note Investing Podcast and delves into two detailed case studies involving complex loan situations.

Chris discusses the importance of patience, direct involvement, and the value of understanding both consumer and investor laws. He also emphasizes the necessity of proactive management and communication with borrowers to protect investment interests. As always, listeners are encouraged to interact and learn more about investment opportunities with 7E Investments.

00:00 Introduction and Podcast Rebranding

00:29 Early Podcast Days and Lessons Learned

01:51 The Slow Pace of Note Investing

02:21 Case Study 1: Investor Loans and Extensions

09:24 Case Study 2: Builder Loans and Foreclosure

12:39 Dealing with Difficult Borrowers

18:08 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

In this episode of The Paper Trail Podcast, Chris shares what he calls the biggest mistake of his note investing career: buying a 0% interest loan. Despite acquiring it at a steep discount, the loan turned into a frustrating and time-consuming challenge. Chris breaks down what went wrong—from unpredictable borrower behavior and high servicing fees to the illusion of “cheap” deals that aren’t worth the effort.

He explains how low monthly payments can erode returns, why understanding your servicing contract is critical, and how certain borrowers exploit the system. Through this candid story, Chris illustrates the hidden dangers of loans that seem too good to be true and why discipline, due diligence, and realistic pricing matter more than chasing a bargain.

This episode is an unfiltered look at the mistakes, frustrations, and lessons that come with real-world note investing—offering valuable takeaways for anyone entering the business or managing a portfolio today.

In this episode of The Paper Trail Podcast, Chris breaks down one of the most overlooked mistakes in pricing non-performing loans—underestimating the risk of reinstatement on low-interest loans. He shares how even experienced investors can misprice assets by focusing too heavily on foreclosure-based models without considering what happens if a borrower resumes payments.

Chris also offers a real-world update from 7e Investments’ record-breaking third quarter, previews upcoming educational seminars, and introduces 7e’s new private lending program offering DSCR and fix-and-flip loans. Whether you’re a seasoned note buyer or new to the space, this episode offers practical, experience-based lessons to refine how you analyze loan tapes and avoid common valuation errors.

In this episode, Chris breaks down one of the most misunderstood aspects of mortgage note investing—how to price non-performing loans correctly. Drawing from real case studies, he explains why assuming a fast foreclosure timeline can lead to major miscalculations, how borrower behavior (like filing for bankruptcy) impacts your timeline and return, and why the biggest risks often come from what you can’t predict.

Chris also shares how 7e models downside risk using IRR and scenario planning, why adding just one month to your assumptions can save your entire deal, and what to do when legal errors, borrower beliefs, or delays threaten your outcome. This episode is a must-listen for investors who want to move beyond surface-level deal sourcing and understand what it really takes to manage notes profitably.

This is part one of a multi-part series on loan pricing fundamentals.

In this episode of The Paper Trail Podcast, Chris recaps the recent Paper Trail Conference and the intentional decision to keep sessions unrecorded for candid discussions. He then dives into the latest foreclosure and REO data from ATTOM and USFN, comparing national trends with the 7e Investments portfolio. Foreclosure activity is climbing, REOs are surging, and certain markets like Florida, Nevada, and South Carolina are experiencing significant distress. Chris explains how these trends affect investors, why understanding local markets matters, and how note buyers should factor price declines and holding costs into bids. He also previews an upcoming 10-part series on bidding strategies for non-performing loans, highlighting the need to look beyond calculators and consider external factors. The episode closes with thoughts on rising non-performing loans in commercial and multifamily sectors and what these shifts mean for upcoming opportunities in distressed debt.

A casual chit-chat unfolds as George and Chris dive into the coffee-fueled world of commercial real estate. They kick things off with some light banter about their coffee preferences—George's straight black versus Chris's adventurous mushroom blend, a nod to the quirky side of their industry. From there, George shares his unexpected journey into the realm of real estate, which started as a part-time gig just after college and spiraled into a decades-long career. They explore the nuances of commercial brokerage, touching on everything from retail and office spaces to the importance of being adaptable in an ever-changing market.

George emphasizes the need for real estate agents to stay educated and embrace new technologies—because in the wild world of commercial real estate, it's survival of the fittest, or in their case, the most adaptable! They tackle the question of what truly adds value to a property, with George sharing some killer insights on how strategic upgrades can lead to significant returns. A highlight of the convo is their take on the current market, aptly dubbed the 'fog of war,' reflecting the uncertainty and myriad influences affecting investors today. Chris and George offer a refreshing take on how to navigate the tricky waters of real estate, blending wisdom with a sprinkle of humor.