We have seen many value chain mapping examples. We have seen good value chain mapping, bad value chain mapping, incomplete value chain mapping. Ultimately, given the nature how value chain mapping will work, it can only do few things and it cannot do a few things. So if value chain mapping is presented to do things it cannot do it is flawed. When you do value chain analysis it is far more useful to see where profits are going to shift over time, that is one thing you have to do. Two, assign some probabilities of what are the odds of this happening. And 3, what influences those probabilities. You are analyzing the entire sector, the entire industry. A lot of things influencing a sector. Consumer spending can change with the recession. Recession can change things. Different legislation could cause profits move from point x to point y. Competitor making a misstep could cause it, new competitor entering, competitor going bankrupt. So whenever someone says I am so certain this will happen you should question their business judgement because you cannot predict the future.

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