We are likely in another year of mixed fortunes in South Africa’s agriculture. At an aggregate level, we believe that the sector is likely to see some growth this year. However, the subsector view will show significant divergence, as various parts of the sector face an array of pressures. One of these is the ongoing spread of animal diseases, which remains a big risk for livestock farmers. Another source of strain is the recent floods, which will put pressure on some industries. That said, conditions remain favourable for some subsectors. Listen to the note for broad reflections.

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Richard Humphries, Sam Mkokeli, Nelisiwe Tshabalala, and Aamanda Murimba produce this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website

The South African agricultural sector continues to create more jobs. In the first quarter of 2026, farm jobs increased by 3% from the same period a year earlier to 960k jobs (up by 1% from the last quarter of 2025).

This uptick in agricultural employment is unsurprising as the sector has generally enjoyed favourable production conditions in 2025 through to the start of this year. The industries that have faced challenges are beef, dairy, and pork producers due to foot-and-mouth disease, and the pork industry due to African swine fever.

Other subsectors have generally experienced favourable production conditions, partly due to La Niña-induced rains and the expansion of agricultural activity. The provinces that have shown annual job growth are the Western Cape, Eastern Cape, Free State, North West, and Limpopo. The job gains in these provinces helped to overshadow the decline registered in other provinces of the country.

But going into 2027, there are risks ahead. The higher input costs, fuel and fertiliser, because of the Middle East war, along with expected El Niño drought, are some of the risks that could weigh on the sector and on employment conditions from now on.

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Agricultural machinery sales remain robust in South Africa, supported by orders some farmers likely placed before the current global challenges.

The farmers’ finances over the past few months were boosted by the ample harvest in the 2024-25 season, on the back of beneficial La Niña rains.

Therefore, in our interpretation of these recent sales, we ought to be careful not to view the data as an indication that the agricultural sector is unaffected by rising input costs, lower agricultural commodity prices, and lingering uncertainty about the weather outlook heading into the 2026-27 season.

In April, tractor sales totalled 548 units, up 4% from the same period a year ago, according to data from the South African Agricultural Machinery Association.

The combine harvest sales amounted to 52 units, up by 13% from April 2025. This uptick in sales comes after a slight slump in March 2026 sales, a change from a 14-month period of strong tractor sales on the back of better harvests in the past few seasons.

But the path ahead is uncertain. We explain more in here. Wandile Sihlobo website

Firstly, there’s a growing likelihood that we’re entering the onset of an El Niño event. This will likely begin around October 2027, which is the start of the 2026-27 summer season. The South African Weather Service (SAWS) highlighted this in their report today, 1 May 2026. Depending on the severity of the El Niño, it will likely negatively affect agricultural activity in South Africa and across Southern Africa.

Secondly, South Africa has experienced favourable rainfall at the start of the 2026-27 winter crop season. However, we may encounter below-normal rainfall later in the season, which could impact the production of wheat, barley, canola and oats this year.

Overall, in the coming weeks and months, we’ll need to closely monitor weather developments. The outlook is concerning across the board. Wandile Sihlobo website

Many agricultural crops and value chains have shown dramatic progress in recent years. They should serve as an inspiration for further growth of this sector.

I often write about South Africa's soybean success story, whose production increased from 67,700 tonnes in the 1993-94 production season to an expected record harvest of 2,8 million tonnes in 2025-26. This, in turn, has been driven by increased demand for high-protein foods, particularly poultry products.

But soybeans aren't the only success story in South Africa's vegetable oils cluster.

Canola is one of South Africa's agricultural success stories. Since South African farmers began commercial planting of the crop on 17,000 hectares in 1998-99, the area has increased to an estimated 174,515 hectares in 2025-26. For the 2026-27 season, the farmers plan to increase the area to 189,175 hectares.

Like soybeans, the catalyst behind the increase in canola plantings, among other things, is a rise in domestic demand or usage for oils and oilcake. There has also been a switch in some areas from wheat to canola due to higher profitability in recent times. South Africa is now a net canola exporter, having shipped to countries such as Germany and Belgium in recent years.

Canola is a winter crop. Hence, production is primarily in the Western Cape, a winter-rainfall region in South Africa.

Considering the farmers' intentions to plant 189,175 hectares, up by 8% from the previous season. If we assume relatively favourable weather conditions and a decent yield, applying a five-year average yield of 1,89 tonnes per hectare, South Africa could harvest 357,541 tonnes, up 16% from the previous season. This could be a fresh high.

Admittedly, it is still too early to tell with certainty where the canola crop harvest will be and whether farmers will successfully plant the area they intend to till. The key determinant will be the weather conditions, amongst other things.

Placing the current weather forecasts aside, I think it's fair to say that canola is one of the success stories of South Africa's agriculture, alongside the soybean industry and many of our fruits.

Listen to the podcast for more information. Wandile Sihlobo website

We are late in the 2025-26 summer grains and oilseed season. Farmers in some regions have already started harvesting the crop. South Africa is set to have its largest grain harvest on record, about 20.8 million tonnes. But will the recent rains not cause quality issues? Or will they help supplement soil moisture ahead of the start of the 2026-27 season? Listen to the podcast for more. Wandile Sihlobo website

Last week, the South African Agricultural Machinery Association released its monthly agricultural machinery sales report for March 2026.

To some observers of the South African agricultural sector, the report signalled a change from the long period of strong tractor and combine harvesters sales to a much slower pace. Tractor sales declined for the first time in 14 months, down 8% year-on-year, to 618 units. At the same time, combine harvester sales fell by 22% from March 2025 to 29 units.

While such a decline is not desirable, it is also not alarming, and we should be careful not to read too much into the state of the sector from a one-month slowdown in agricultural machinery sales.

Moreover, the March 2026 tractor and combine harvest sales levels remain well above the long-term averages. Therefore, the base effects are also another factor to consider when interpreting these data.

Indeed, the Middle East war and concerns about fuel prices have, to an extent, negatively impacted the sector, as reflected in the first-quarter results of the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI).

Listen to the podcast for more information. Wandile Sihlobo website

In these times of conversations about the impact of high fuel and fertiliser prices on agriculture, the region of South Africa I find myself thinking about the most right now is the Western Cape.

The Western Cape produces much of our winter crops: half of South Africa’s winter wheat, and the majority of our barley, canola and oats. Planting of these crops begins at the end of this month.

Some farmers likely bought their fertiliser before the start of this war and benefited from better prices. But some may not have bought it then and will have to start planting at these higher fertiliser prices.

As I have said before, fertiliser accounts for 35% of South African grain farmers’ input costs, and fuel accounts for about 13%, meaning roughly half of the input cost component is exposed to the challenges posed by the ongoing war in the Middle East.

It is unclear how many farmers also managed to secure fuel before the recent hikes. But the core point is that South Africa is starting the 2026-27 winter crop season at a challenging time.

Things would have been better if the previous winter crop season in 2025-26 had been excellent. But it was not. Farmers across the Western Cape had to replant their crops twice or more. There was a snail infestation that attacked the seedlings.

Spraying and replanting meant farmers incurred even higher input costs than in normal seasons. What made things worse is that these commodities are traded on the global market, where their prices are determined.

Farmers don’t have the market power to pass on costs directly to consumers. Therefore, they were strained from the previous season. We are now starting the 2026-27 season from that back foot.

We will know how much area they intend to plant at the end of this month when the Crop Estimates Committee releases the farmers’ intentions-to-plant data.

As bleak as these views are, from a consumer perspective, there should be no cause for concern in the near term.

The world is awash with wheat, keeping prices under pressure. But the downside for farmers is that it weighs on their profitability, in a season when input costs are already higher due to the war.

For example, the International Grains Council forecasts 2025-26 global wheat production at a record 842 million tonnes, up 5% year-on-year. This is due to ample harvests in the EU, Russia, the U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan, among others.

It is partly these ample global supplies and lower global wheat prices that have led to calls to increase the domestic wheat import tariff.

The wheat import tariff exists to provide some level of protection for domestic wheat producers while ensuring that consumer welfare is not sacrificed in the process. The key is to find some level of balance. At this time, when farmers are under pressure, we will be thinking more about this at the policy level.

Ultimately, we are entering a stressful season for farmers, but consumers are getting a breather from ample global wheat supplies.

-Wandile Sihlobo

Presidential Envoy on Agriculture and Land Wandile Sihlobo website

When we consider exports in South Africa’s agriculture, we typically overlook the importance of the African continent. Such an approach is wrong; the continent is central to our agricultural export success so far. In 2025, South Africa’s agriculture exported a record US$15.1 billion, up 10% from a year ago. Nearly half of these exports went to the African continent.

Indeed, the continent’s prominence differs product by product. Still, there is no way we would have been able to enjoy this export success, where we are now ranked 32nd among global agricultural exporters and the only African country in the top 40, without the preferential access to the broader continent.

As we continue to work to access more of Asia, the Middle East, and various parts of the world, it's equally important to take a step back and acknowledge the value this continent has played in our agricultural success journey.

We discuss more in this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website

South Africa's agricultural exports to the Middle East, worth US$1.3 billion in 2025, or 8% of overall agricultural exports, are at risk from this crisis.

Shipping costs are rising. Agricultural businesses that export to the Middle East will now be exploring whether other markets can absorb their products. South Africa's citrus, strawberry, and maize harvest seasons will soon begin across the country, and as the conflict in the Middle East drags on, trade interruptions will persist.

While the conflict will impose major costs on businesses, South Africa must remain focused on its long-term agricultural export growth strategy, which targets the Middle East as a key market. In times of peace and reconstruction, this region would be a key agricultural export market. We believe there remains room to increase exports in peacetime. Wandile Sihlobo website