South Africa, the only African country that is a member of the G20, holds the

presidency of the grouping until the end of November 2025. During this time, it could help drive the African continent’s food security agenda.

For agriculture, South Africa has set four G20 priorities:

* the promotion of policies and investments that can lead to improved food and nutrition security

* empowering youth and women to participate in agrifood systems

* fostering innovation and the transfer of useful technologies in agriculture

industries

* building climate resilience for sustainable food production.

These priorities could benefit the African continent, especially as many other African countries have long struggled with food insecurity and low agricultural productivity.

Based on my work as an agricultural economist, I would argue that South Africa could make use of its G20 presidency to support other African countries in building food security and raising the productivity of their agricultural sector.

Listen to the podcast for more insights.

Richard Humphries and Sam Mkokeli produce this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website

South Africa was not spared of the "Liberation Day" tariffs announced by US President Trump against various countries. South Africa will face tariffs between 10% and 31% in the US for all products. The specificity of by-products is not yet clear.

We know now that a baseline tariff of 10% will apply to imports from all countries. It remains unclear if there are differences in the remaining 21% (that makes up the rest of the 31%) duties levied against South Africa.

Under this environment, it is prudent to assume that South Africa will be out of the AGOA (the African Growth and Opportunity Act), which afforded us duty-free access to the US for a range of products, including the auto industry and agriculture.

We suspect there may be some differences product by product, but that will be clear as soon as the US authorities release more information. We know that the reciprocal tariffs will generally range from 10% to 60% (and to 31% in the case of South Africa). The exact levy will be based on what the White House Council of Economic Advisers thinks is the sum of tariffs and non-tariff barriers on US goods to a specific country.

Indeed, some products face higher tariffs in the South African market, but there are rebates through the International Administration Commission of South Africa (ITAC) to assist any country that requires relief. South Africa is arguably amongst the countries with the lowest tariffs, which some local stakeholders have previously argued was a policy mistake at the onset of South Africa rejoining the global economy after 1994, following years of isolation.

The details of how the various domestic industries engage with this will also be precise in the coming days and weeks. But what I must stress regarding agriculture is that the US accounted for 4% of the total US$13,7 billion in exports in 2024. While this may seem small, it is significant for specific industries, particularly citrus, grapes, wine, and fruit juices. Since the inception of AGOA, South Africa's share of agricultural exports to the US has remained at similar levels.

With a 31% tariff now, while South African agricultural competitors such as Brazil, Chile, and Australia will face only 10% of the tariff, we will surely face a competitiveness problem in the US market. And yes, the tariff is a tax on the US consumer, not South Africa. However, it affects South African products' penetration rate in these markets.

It may not be easy, and diverting products to other friendly markets will take time. Still, this should be the main preoccupation of the Department of Agriculture, assisted by the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition. The Middle East and Asia should be the primary focus for South Africa to build access, mainly in China, India, and Saudi Arabia.

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Richard Humphries and Sam Mkokeli produce this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website

South Africa's agriculture is recovering after a challenging mid-summer drought that led to significant crop losses in the 2023-24 season. The Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) 's data released at the end of March 2025 paints an encouraging picture of this new season's summer crop production prospects.

For example, the 2024-25 summer grain and oilseeds production is forecast at 18,0 million tonnes, up 5% from the previous month's estimate and 16% of the prior season's crop. This comprises maize, sunflower seed, soybeans, groundnuts, sorghum and dry beans.

Listen to the podcast for more insights.

Richard Humphries and Sam Mkokeli produce this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website

We have a challenging year like this one where there remains discomfort about the Expropriation Act in some sections of South Africa and rising geopolitical tensions; we were pleasantly surprised to see rising optimism in South Africa’s agriculture.

The Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) – a sentiment indicator in South Africa’s agriculture -- increased 11 points from Q4 2024 to 70 in Q1 2025. This is the third consecutive improvement, placing the ACI at its highest level since Q4 2021, a year of La Niña rainfall that boosted agricultural output.

The current level of the ACI implies that South African agribusinesses remain optimistic about business conditions in the country. This optimism is a result of a combination of factors, including La Niña rains that support the 2024-25 agricultural season, improvements in port efficiency that supported exports in 2024, and the progress in controlling animal diseases.

This survey was conducted in the third week of February, covering various agribusinesses operating in all agricultural subsectors across South Africa.

Listen to the podcast for more insights.

Richard Humphries and Sam Mkokeli produce this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website

South Africa has the contradiction of being the leading agricultural exporter in Africa, while swelling number of households that is food insecure. Without proper policy engagement of this challenge, the sector face the risk of more waves of misconceptions about its export-driven growth drive while many South Africans are impoverished.

We believe that an accurate diagnosis of the problem and its underlying causes is critical to formulating a suitable policy response.

In February 2025, Statistics South Africa released the Food Security Report for 2019, 2022 and 2023 (COVID-19 affected the ability to collect data in 2020 and 2021 ). The report utilized data from the General Household Survey (GHS) for those years.

The report's most striking observation was that ‘the proportion of households in South Africa that experienced moderate to severe food insecurity was estimated at 15,8% in 2019, 16,2% in 2022, and 19,7% in 2023. Over this period, the proportion of households that experienced severe food insecurity was estimated to be 6,4%, 7,5%, and 8,0%, respectively’.

It is not the lack of supply of nutritious, high-quality food and safe food products, or prices that has caused the deteriorating food security. Access seems to be the fundamental challenge, especially for households with no regular income sources.

Therefore, addressing income poverty at the household level must be at the center of any strategy to deal with food insecurity. Clearly, this is not a challenge that can be resolved by the agricultural sector alone but through coordinated efforts to grow the South African economy, lift employment across various sectors and providing appropriate support to vulnerable households.

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Richard Humphries and Sam Mkokeli produce this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website

South Africa's agriculture exports reached a new record of US$13,7 billion in 2024, up 3% from the previous year. This reflects both an increase in the volume of agricultural exports and higher prices of some products.

The top exported products by value include citrus, grapes, maize, apples and pears, wine, nuts, fruit juices, sugar, berries, dates, pineapples, avocados, wool, apricots and peaches, ciders, and beef, amongst other products.

Listen to the podcast for more insights.

Richard Humphries and Sam Mkokeli produce this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website

We have been saying for some time that this will likely be a recovery year for South Africa’s agriculture following a harsh mid-summer drought in the 2023-24 season that weighed on grains and oilseeds harvest.

The first production estimates for 2024-25 summer grains and oilseeds point to the possibility of a better harvest. The Crop Estimates Committee forecasts the 2024-25 overall summer grains and oilseeds harvest at 17,2 million tonnes, up 11% from the previous season. This comprises maize, sunflower seed, soybeans, groundnuts, sorghum and dry beans.

The expected yield improvements primarily back better harvest prospects. The overall area planting is 4,4 million hectares, roughly unchanged from the last season. Provided this is a first production estimate and possibly does not fully account for the gains of the recent rains, we could see further upside revision in the coming months. After all, there are nine more estimates to follow monthly.

Listen to the podcast for more insights.

Richard Humphries and Sam Mkokeli produce this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website

South Africa's agriculture is on its recovery path, supported by favourable rainfall and progress in controlling the spread of animal diseases, amongst other contributing factors. The previous 2023-24 production season was challenging, characterised by the mid-summer drought and animal diseases that added immense pressure to the sector.

The jobs data for the fourth quarter of 2024 illustrate the difficulty the sector experienced, although much milder than we anticipated. For example, primary agriculture employment fell by 1% from the third quarter to 924k jobs in the last quarter of 2024. The field crops, game and hunting, and forestry are the subsectors that registered notable losses.

However, from an annual perspective, the employment was roughly unchanged from the last quarter of 2023. Positively, the primary agricultural employment of 924k people is well above the long-term jobs of 799k.

Given the resilience of recent quarters' job performance, it is possible that we may see a recovery in employment conditions in 2025, assuming that there aren't pressing trade-related challenges that will weigh on the sector's profitability in the near term. The mild increase in the minimum wage this year, while challenging for some commodities and adding to already higher input cost pressures, may also not be a major hindrance.

Listen to the podcast for more insights.

Richard Humphries and Sam Mkokeli produce this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website

Since I have been writing about the higher maize prices and possible upside risks to consumer food price inflation, I thought it is important to highlight that we have been observing a price retreat since last week.

When the market closed today, February 14, 2025, South Africa's white maize spot price was R5 559 per tonne, well below the R6 700 per tonne mark we saw at the start of January 2025. However, it is still up 30% from a year ago.

The yellow maize price is R4 940 per tonne, down from R5 110 per tonne at the start of January 2025. Still, this was up by roughly 30% from the same period in 2024.

The tight maize supplies underpinned the generally high prices over the past few months. South Africa was hard hit by the mid-summer drought in the 2023-24 season, leading to a 21% decline in maize production to 12,9 million tonnes.

The Southern Africa region was also hit hard, with Zimbabwe losing 60% of its maize crop, Zambia's maize harvest down 50%, and significant crop losses across the region. This led to a strong demand for maize, and South Africa remained one of the significant maize suppliers to Southern Africa.

South Africa's poor maize harvest of 12.9 million tonnes was supplemented by better stocks of about 2.4 million tonnes, enabling the country to remain a net exporter.

Between May 2024 and the end of January 2025, South Africa exported 1.80 million tonnes out of the expected 1.90 million tonnes (down from 3.44 million tonnes in the 2023-24 marketing year because of the mid-summer drought).

In essence, the primary price drivers in recent months were the poor domestic maize harvest of the 2023-24 season, strong regional demand for maize, and uncertainty about the new 24-25 season outlook.

So, what changed in these past few weeks?

The focus is shifting to the new 2024-25 season, and the crop is generally in good condition across South Africa.

Broadly, the farmers have managed to plant well in most regions, although the timing of the planting seems to differ vastly in some areas, partly because of the erratic rains at the start of the season. The crop conditions are favourable.

South Africa's 2024-25 maize preliminary plantings were 2.64 million hectares, up 0.4% year over year (y/y). White maize was 1.59 million hectares (up 3% y/y), and yellow maize was 1,05 million hectares (down 3% y/y).

Admittedly, while the crop fields are visibly green and in good condition, the heat of November to early December 2024 strained some regions.

While the crop has recovered from the recent rains in such areas, it is not in its usual health state for this season, especially in the various small towns in the eastern Free State. We suspect that the North West, the western regions of Mpumalanga and the northern parts of Limpopo may have similar experiences. These areas saw erratic and late rains.

Still, the overall view of the maize crop and the general agricultural conditions is far better than that of the past season.

Therefore, optimism about the season ahead and favourable rainfall forecasts through March are the key drivers of the market's price decline. We also see some selling pressure, which further moderates this price decline.

Listen to the podcast for more insights.

Richard Humphries and Sam Mkokeli produce this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website

There has been an emerging narrative that South Africa's agriculture has not

performed well recently.

Inept municipalities, poor road infrastructure, stock theft, and port inefficiencies all

contribute to this narrative of failure and despair. Stories of the failings of land reform

farms also add to this sentiment of regression in agricultural progress.

The government's failings over the past decade and the lack of implementation of

many development policies also catalysed this narrative.

But this narrative is far from the reality of the South African farming sector.

Regardless of how experts feel about the state's capacity and the government's

policy stance since the dawn of democracy, the one undeniable fact is that the sector

has grown tremendously – and certainly not failing.

Listen to the podcast for more insights.

Richard Humphries and Sam Mkokeli. Wandile Sihlobo website