We are yet to receive more details on China's intentions to lower import tariffs for various African countries. What is worth emphasising for now is that, from a South African agricultural perspective, this would be a welcome development.

China has profound importance in global agriculture. In 2023, China was a leading importer, accounting for 11% of global agricultural imports, with imports valued at US$218 billion. The leading suppliers of farm products to China are Brazil, the U.S., Thailand, Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia, Canada, Vietnam, France, Russia, Argentina, Chile, Ukraine, the Netherlands, and Malaysia.

However, China has been on a journey to diversify its agricultural exports beyond these suppliers, which has accelerated following the U.S. initial tariffs in 2018 and is ongoing in 2025.

South and Latin American countries, as well as Australia, have been the primary beneficiaries of China's diversification strategy so far.

But South Africa must also be part of this conversation. And what the Chinese authorities have signalled is a starting point for a deeper conversation on agricultural trade.

The first step will have to be for South African authorities to approach China to present a range of products that can be exported, and then build from there.

South Africa remains a negligible player in the Chinese agricultural market, accounting for a mere 0.4% (US$979 million) of China's agricultural imports of US$218 billion in 2023. These exports include a variety of fruits, wine, red meat, nuts, maize, soybeans, and wool.

However, there is room for more ambitious agricultural export efforts.

The South African agricultural sector, comprising organised agriculture and researchers, consistently emphasises the need to lower import tariffs in China and remove phytosanitary constraints on various products.

There is now a pathway to have a productive conversation about this matter and move with speed. Of course, once more details are available on tariffs, we will also need to examine the phytosanitary issues related to agriculture.

Overall, this is welcome news.

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Richard Humphries and Sam Mkokeli produce this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website

In a year where trade has dominated the headlines since the U.S. started imposing higher tariffs against its trading partners, agricultural export activity is worth paying close attention to.

Encouragingly, the start of the year has remained positive for the sector. In the first quarter of 2025, South Africa's agricultural exports totalled US$ 3.36 billion, up 10% from the same period a year ago. This is a function of both higher volumes of various product exports and better commodity prices.

The products that dominated the exports list in the first quarter were mainly grapes, maize, apples, pears, apricots, cherries, peaches, wine, wool, fruit juices, nuts, dates, avocados, pineapples, and beef, among other products.

While the ports remain a challenge and require further improvement and investment, the agricultural export season in the first quarter experienced less friction than in the recent past..

South Africa does not engage in one-way trade. The country imports various agricultural products. In the first quarter of 2025, South Africa's agricultural imports totalled US$ 1.94 billion, a 19% increase year-over-year. The increase resulted from higher value and volume of major products South Africa imports, such as wheat, palm oil, rice, poultry, and whiskies.

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Richard Humphries and Sam Mkokeli produce this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website

The Southern Africa region is far better regarding food supplies today than a year ago. For example, Zambia's 2024-25 maize crop has bounced back. The government forecasts the harvest to be 3,66 million tonnes, up from 1,5 million tonnes the previous season. This is because of favourable weather conditions and the decent area plantings.

The harvest is underway in the country, and the message we are hearing about the quality of the crop remains encouraging. This also means Zambia could return to being a net exporter of maize as its domestic maize consumption is about 2,8 million tonnes, far surpassed by the expected harvest of 3,66 million tonnes.

Importantly, one can expect the domestic maize prices to continue moderating as the harvest continues, thus easing the general food price inflation.

Zambia is also not the only fortunate country in the Southern Africa region. The entire region received better rains, even excessive rains in some areas. We continue to hear encouraging news of the better grain harvest in Zimbabwe. For example, Zimbabwean farmers likely planted 1.7 million hectares of maize this year, slightly lower than last year but decent.

We will know more about the yields in the coming weeks and months. What is clear at the moment is that Zimbabwe will, too, have a better maize harvest compared to the 2023-24 drought year.

The South African story is even more optimistic. For example, South Africa's 2024-25 maize harvest is forecast at 14,66 million tonnes. There is an increase in white and yellow maize, with harvests now at 7,75 million tonnes and 6,91 million tonnes, respectively.

Overall, the maize harvest of 14,66 million tonnes is up 14% year-on-year, primarily benefiting from expected yield improvements on an annual basis. Importantly, these forecasts are well above South Africa's yearly maize needs of about 11,8 million tonnes, which implies that South Africa will have a surplus and remain a net exporter of maize.

The 2024-25 season is a positive change for Southern Africa's staple crop, maize. Importantly, it is encouraging to see Zambia bounce back. This country is vital in maize supplies to the region as the second largest producer after South Africa.

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Richard Humphries and Sam Mkokeli produce this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website

One of the themes that dominated the White House Press session this evening was agriculture – the idea that the farming sector in South Africa is under siege and people are running away. But this could be no further than reality.

The South African farming sector or farming community is not under siege. And yes, the country has devastating crime incidents, which should remain a major worry for all.

However, it is necessary to state that there is no land expropriation without compensation in the country, that the recent Expropriation Act has been massively misrepresented, and that property rights remain intact. Land Reform is still under the market principles of the willing buyer-willing seller.

The agricultural sector, which some have portrayed as a victim, has actually made enormous progress over time, contributing significantly to the country's overall economic growth. The sector has more than doubled in value and volume terms since 1994.

This expansion was broadly shared across all major subsectors of the South African farming economy, including horticulture, field crops, and livestock.

South Africa has seen growth in its agricultural exports over time, reaching a record US$13,7 billion in 2024. South Africa is now ranked the world's 32nd largest agricultural exporter, the only African country in the top 40 in terms of value.

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Richard Humphries and Sam Mkokeli produce this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website

At the end of April, we completed South Africa's 2024-25 marketing year for maize. This marketing year corresponds with the 2023-24 production season, which was challenged by the mid-summer drought and led to the 22% decline in South Africa’s maize harvest to 12,85 million tonnes.

The big help in that season came from the gains of the previous ones. For example, the season started with 2,40 million tonnes of opening/carryover stocks from the past season, ultimately boosting the available maize supplies in the country. This added to the harvest of 12,85 million tonnes. These overall maize supplies were against the domestic needs of 11,6 million tonnes, leaving the country with substantial maize for exports.

The available exports were of great help to the southern Africa region, which was severely hit by the drought. For example, Zimbabwe lost 60% of their maize crop, Zambia lost half of its crop, and other neighbouring countries experienced significant losses. This meant that there was increased reliance on South Africa.

Thankfully, South Africa was better placed to help export more maize. At the end of the 2024-25 marketing year in April 2025, South Africa had exported 2,2 million tonnes, substantially well above the long-term average levels. About 66% of these exports were white maize and 34% were yellow maize.

Several countries benefited from these exports, especially in southern Africa. But no country benefited more than Zimbabwe, which accounted for 57% of South Africa's maize exports between May 2024 and April 2025, or about 1.3 million tonnes of white and yellow maize.

South Africa was exporting to the southern African region, so it had to import to supplement supplies, mainly in the coastal areas. However, another factor behind the increase in imports was the price competitiveness of imports. South Africa ended the 2024-25 season with 938,116 tonnes of maize imports, which mainly originated in Argentina, Brazil, and the United States.

Still, when one accounts for these imports and exports of 2.2 million tonnes, it remains clear that South Africa was a net exporter of maize in the 2024-25 season. South Africa did not experience a massive decline in maize production as its neighbouring countries did, in part, because of the improved seed cultivars and arguably better farming methods.

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Richard Humphries and Sam Mkokeli produce this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website

We have been saying for some time that 2025 will be a recovery year for South Africa’s agriculture, mainly highlighting the gains in grains, soybeans, and horticulture yields. But I was particularly pleased on May 8, when I received a report from South Africa Wine (SA Wine) indicating that we will have an excellent harvest in 2025.

SA Wine and Vinpro forecasts South Africa’s wine grapes harvest to be 1.244 million tonnes, an 11% recovery from the exceptionally poor harvest in 2024. Importantly, the quality promises are also to be excellent.

With the harvest like this, our preoccupation for the coming months will continue to be the export markets and logistics.

Indeed, the US market has dominated the trade conversation in recent weeks. However, long before the Trump tariffs, the South African wine industry and the entire agricultural sector had been focused on expanding export markets beyond the existing ones.

South Africa’s agricultural sector is export-oriented, with exports reaching a record US$13,7 billion in 2024, up 3% from the previous year, according to data from Trade Map. This reflects both an increase in the volume of agricultural exports and higher prices of some products.

The top exported products by value include citrus, grapes, maize, apples and pears, wine, nuts, fruit juices, sugar, berries, dates, pineapples, avocados, wool, apricots and peaches, ciders, and beef.

The focus on broadening export markets becomes even more urgent as we continue to see better quality and volumes in wine and other agricultural product output. One of the primary areas we focus on is China, which has a large population and buying power. China accounts for 11% of global agricultural imports.

However, the South African agricultural sector, specifically the wine industry, faces some constraints. For example, we face tariffs of 14% in wine exports in China, while our competitors, such as Australia, face 0% duties as they have a trade agreement with China. We have been vocal about such issues for some time. Now, the environment is even more urgent and appropriate to open these new markets, as China also looks to increase its agricultural trade with South Africa.

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Richard Humphries and Sam Mkokeli produce this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website

On April 30, we had essential data on South Africa's agriculture. The Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) released its third production forecast for South Africa's 2024-25 summer crop production season.

There are seven more monthly estimates to come. But on the third estimate, we begin to have some comfort about the accuracy of the data.

At a time when we have been worrying about the excessive rains, there was predictably a lot more attention on these figures. Notably, the CEC slightly increased South Africa's 2024-25 summer crop production estimate by 0.05% from March 2025 to 18.01 million tonnes.

Indeed, this is a mild uptick, but it remains crucial at a time when some worried that we might see a downward revision of the crop due to the excessive rains. This estimate comprises yellow and white maize, sunflower seed, soybeans, groundnuts, sorghum, and dry beans.

In essence, this harvest estimate is 16% higher than the 2023-24 production season, representing a decent recovery from the drought season

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Richard Humphries and Sam Mkokeli produce this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website

We are beginning to be concerned about the impact of these excessive rains on agriculture, particularly summer grains and oilseed regions. The crop has matured in most areas, and some planted earlier are now ready to harvest. However, with these excessive rains, it may prove impossible to access the fields.

Since we had a late start to the season, roughly a month behind the typical schedule, some areas aren't harvest-ready yet. Still, there is a need for sunshine for crops to mature. The frequent rains and scant sunshine also mean there are areas where, for example, some soybeans may start to germinate – an awful thing if it happens.

Of course, we aren't changing our optimistic view about South Africa's 2024-25 summer crop season. We remain optimistic that this will be a recovery season for South Africa's agriculture. However, I am concerned about the crop's quality and the harvest's timing.

The Crop Estimates Committee places South Africa's 2024-25 summer grain and oilseeds production at 18,0 million tonnes, up 16% of the prior season's crop. This comprises maize, sunflower seed, soybeans, groundnuts, sorghum and dry beans.

I never thought one would say this, but we badly need sunshine in South African agriculture.

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Richard Humphries and Sam Mkokeli produce this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website

In political economy, there is something called "flooding the zone". Roughly explained, this is when a deluge of information takes people's attention away from what should be a priority. In South Africa's agriculture, we are fortunately not under such an attack through the flood of information. Still, we must continuously be vigilant and reflect thoughtfully on risks affecting the sector.

In recent weeks, the focus has primarily been on trade matters and the U.S. tariffs, understandably so, because the U.S. is a valuable market for South Africa's agriculture. The U.S. reciprocal tariffs are imposed when the citrus industry is at its export season; therefore, our focus on these issues should be paramount. Equally, concerns about the sustainability of the Government of National Unity and the fiscal problems that dominate the domestic conversation are warranted as these place a sharp spotlight on South Africa's political futures and the plight of economic renewal.

Yet still, we must not allow other important domestic issues affecting the sector to be drowned by political noise. One such area is the continuous effort to control animal diseases. South Africa has made enormous progress following challenging years of avian influenza, African swine fever, and foot and mouth disease. However, we continue to learn about the foot and mouth disease outbreaks in parts of KwaZulu-Natal and some lingering cases in the Eastern Cape. This means animal health should remain a priority for South African agricultural authorities and organized agriculture.

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Richard Humphries and Sam Mkokeli produce this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website

South Africa, the only African country that is a member of the G20, holds the

presidency of the grouping until the end of November 2025. During this time, it could help drive the African continent’s food security agenda.

For agriculture, South Africa has set four G20 priorities:

* the promotion of policies and investments that can lead to improved food and nutrition security

* empowering youth and women to participate in agrifood systems

* fostering innovation and the transfer of useful technologies in agriculture

industries

* building climate resilience for sustainable food production.

These priorities could benefit the African continent, especially as many other African countries have long struggled with food insecurity and low agricultural productivity.

Based on my work as an agricultural economist, I would argue that South Africa could make use of its G20 presidency to support other African countries in building food security and raising the productivity of their agricultural sector.

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Richard Humphries and Sam Mkokeli produce this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website