Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo

The Karoo region of South Africa experiences intense weather conditions, with often extremely hot summers and bitterly cold winters. It is these extreme weather conditions that nurture the distinct vegetation of the region, which is a source of feed for the sheep industry there. The Karoo lamb has a unique and supreme taste due to the distinct vegetation.

But there are times when extreme heat and dryness can cause worries about the vegetation, and there were certainly areas where farmers were starting to rely on feed because of dryness.

But I was delighted to hear from various farmers in recent days that some areas are starting to receive rains, which if it continues, will help boost the grazing veld.

Another aspect of the Karoo region, which many South Africans have yet to explore, is agritourism.

I discuss more in the podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website

The African government must do everything possible to assist farmers during the 2025-26 production season.

In the past, when confronted with disasters and food shortages, we had relied on organisations such as the World Food Programme for assistance.

This time around, the World Food Programme is no longer fit to assist if we run into challenges.

Hence, thinking about the future, we have to do whatever we can to help farmers get out into the fields and till the land, so they can have an ample or decent harvest in the upcoming season and ensure household food security in the near term.

There are also long-term policy considerations for reforming our agriculture, which we must seriously reflect on.

I discuss more in the podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website

South Africa’s agriculture continues to create job opportunities, and its long-term job creation prospects remain positive.

If we look at the high-frequency data for a moment, the number of farm jobs in South Africa has increased slightly from the second quarter of 2025, by 2% to 920k in the third quarter. We see the quarterly improvements mainly in some field crops, horticulture, forestry, and in the production of organic fertiliser. The increase in jobs reflects the optimism generated by the abundant harvest in these subsectors, which we have highlighted on numerous occasions. The one subsector that remains under pressure is the livestock industry, mainly due to the foot-and-mouth disease.

Notably, the jobs of 920k are far above the long-term average level of 799k jobs, signalling that while the sector faces challenges such as animal diseases, wage pressures in some industries and inept municipal service deliveries, among other issues, the employment conditions remain at encouraging levels. Wandile Sihlobo website

This is a busy period in South African farming. The summer crop farmers are tilling the land for the new season, table grape farmers are harvesting, and the winter crop farmers are harvesting.

South Africa’s 2025-26 winter wheat season began at the start of October. But we are seeing that farmers have begun delivering the new season crop, which was planted from the start of May.

In the first five weeks of this year, farmers have delivered about 425,190 tonnes of wheat to commercial silos.

These are still early days, and the harvest is expected to gain momentum in the coming months. South Africa’s 2025-26 winter wheat harvest is forecast at 2.03 million tonnes, a 5% increase from the previous year.

The annual improvement is boosted by the expected better harvest in the Northern Cape, Free State, Eastern Cape, and Limpopo.

The Western Cape, which accounts for over half of South Africa’s winter wheat production, is expected to experience a mild decline in the harvest this year compared to the 2024-25 season due to unfavourable weather conditions in some parts of the province.

A potential wheat harvest of 2.03 million tonnes implies that South Africa may need to import approximately 1.74 million tonnes in the 2025-26 season to meet our annual needs. These imports are expected to be down 5% from the 2024-25 season. The import activity is unlikely to pose a significant challenge, given the ample global wheat supplies available.

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We must dispel the false narrative that South Africa’s farming sector is under siege. This sector has flourished since the dawn of democracy in 1994. We have seen its value more than double, and exports are expanding.

We are now the only African country in the top 40 global agricultural exporters. If there were indeed an attack on the farming sector, we wouldn’t be seeing such success. Another danger we must not underestimate is the negative image the false narratives create. We are an export-oriented farming sector, and therefore, we must protect the image of this sector in the world market.

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Richard Humphries and Sam Mkokeli produce this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website

South Africa's 2024-25 summer grain and oilseeds production season was excellent. In its 9th production estimate, released on October 28, 2025, the Crop Estimate Committee raised South Africa's 2024-25 production by 1% from the September estimate to 20.08 million tonnes.

This figure comprises maize, soybean, sunflower seed, groundnuts, sorghum, and dry beans. The upward revision was mainly on maize, while other production estimates remained unchanged from the September figure.

The current estimate for the 2024-25 summer grain and oilseed season is up 30% from the previous season. There is an annual uptick in all the crops, mainly supported by favourable summer rains and the decent area plantings.

The base effects also help, as we struggled with a drought last year that weighed on the harvest. This ample crop will likely continue to put downward pressure on prices, which bodes well for a moderating path of consumer food price inflation.

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Richard Humphries and Sam Mkokeli produce this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website

We are in a period of relatively high activity in South Africa’s agriculture.

Farmers across the country are tilling the land to mark the start of the 2025-26 summer crop season. We also see some activity in the vegetable fields as farmers prepare for the season ahead. The outlook is positive as we are in a La Niña period.

There is also increased activity in the winter crop-growing regions of the country, with farmers beginning harvest of the 2025-26 crop, which was planted in May 2025. We may also soon see an uptick in the export activity of some fruits.

Overall, the season for all these commodities is looking positive, promising better yields.

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Richard Humphries and Sam Mkokeli produce this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website

In the week of September 26 and October 3, 2025, Zimbabwe imported 34,093 tonnes of maize from South Africa. These imports are at a time when Zimbabwe has previously announced a ban on maize imports, an effort that was set to provide the local producers space to sell their produce to the domestic users.

What then is happening here? Listen to the podcast for more information.

Richard Humphries and Sam Mkokeli produce this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website

We are ending South Africa's 2024-25 summer grains and oilseed production season on an optimistic note. We now have eight production estimates with two more to follow, which are unlikely to change the positive picture we have. The data released at the end of September 2025 by the Crop Estimates Committee show an increase in South Africa's 2024-25 summer grains and oilseed harvest estimate, up by 2% from the August 2025 estimate to an expected 19.94 million tonnes (a 28% year-on-year increase).

There is an annual uptick in all the crops, mainly supported by favourable summer rains and the decent area plantings. The base effects also help, as we struggled with a drought last year that weighed on the harvest. This ample crop will likely continue to put downward pressure on prices, which bodes well for a moderating path of consumer food price inflation.

In a few weeks, the focus will be on the 2025-26 season, which also promises to be favourable, with prospects of La Niña rains.

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Richard Humphries and Sam Mkokeli produce this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website

Similar to the improvement in maize production witnessed in South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and other countries in the Southern African region, Kenya's maize crop has also shown signs of recovery. The latest estimate by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) places the country's harvest at 4.4 million tonnes. This is up 15% from the previous season due to both the expansion in area plantings and improved yields. Consequently, imports are expected to decline by 17% to 250,000 tonnes in the 2025-26 marketing year. The typical maize suppliers to Kenya in times of need include Tanzania and Uganda. It is likely that when domestic supplies have lessened, Kenya will still rely on these countries to supplement its domestic supplies.

South African maize exporters are unlikely to participate in the Kenyan market due to the country's reduced annual maize needs and its long-standing ban on imports of genetically modified crops. Over 80% of South Africa's maize is genetically modified, which is typically used as a non-tariff barrier by various African countries. Still, South Africa's maize exports are likely to focus on the neighbouring SACU countries, including Zimbabwe, and the Far East markets in the coming months. The East African region is unlikely to be a primary focus for many domestic maize exporters.

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Richard Humphries and Sam Mkokeli produce this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website