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“An AI Race With China Can Be Better Than Not Racing” by niplav
Frustrated by all your bad takes, I write a Monte-Carlo analysis
of whether a transformative-AI-race between the PRC and the USA
would be good. To my surprise, I find that it is better than not
racing. Advocating for an international project to build TAI instead of
racing turns out to be good if the probability of such advocacy succeeding
is ≥20%.
A common scheme for a conversation about pausing the
development
of transformative
AI
goes like this:
Abdullah: "I think we should pause the development of TAI,
because if we don't it seems plausible that humanity will be disempowered
by
by advanced AI systems."
Benjamin: "Ah, if by “we” you refer to the United States
(and and its allies, which probably don't stand a chance on their own
to develop TAI), then the current geopolitical rival of the US, namely
the PRC,
will achieve TAI first. That [...]
The original text contained 1 footnote which was omitted from this narration.
The original text contained 9 images which were described by AI.
---
First published:
July 2nd, 2024
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WT3u2tK2AJpYKvaZd/an-ai-race-with-china-can-be-better-than-not-racing
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
View all episodes
By LessWrongFrustrated by all your bad takes, I write a Monte-Carlo analysis
of whether a transformative-AI-race between the PRC and the USA
would be good. To my surprise, I find that it is better than not
racing. Advocating for an international project to build TAI instead of
racing turns out to be good if the probability of such advocacy succeeding
is ≥20%.
A common scheme for a conversation about pausing the
development
of transformative
AI
goes like this:
Abdullah: "I think we should pause the development of TAI,
because if we don't it seems plausible that humanity will be disempowered
by
by advanced AI systems."
Benjamin: "Ah, if by “we” you refer to the United States
(and and its allies, which probably don't stand a chance on their own
to develop TAI), then the current geopolitical rival of the US, namely
the PRC,
will achieve TAI first. That [...]
The original text contained 1 footnote which was omitted from this narration.
The original text contained 9 images which were described by AI.
---
First published:
July 2nd, 2024
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WT3u2tK2AJpYKvaZd/an-ai-race-with-china-can-be-better-than-not-racing
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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