As with all things lately we’re looking for any little clue that the old normal is coming back. But I don’t think it is.  

ASB lowered its house price inflation forecast for this year.  

Its Chief Economist Nick Tuffley reckons the pick up in sales has been sluggish and there is a lot of stock on the market.  

They believe prices will fall through the first half of this year, therefore, the bank has more than halved its house price growth forecast for 2025 to just 3.4% from 9%.  

That’s more in line with inflation than for a long time.  

In other words, buying a house at the moment is no longer the path to automatic capital gain.  

Faced with that house owners are more likely to stay put.  

Back in the old normal, churn was the name of the game. You’d buy and sell often to climb up through the property ladder.  

In today’s climate you’re more likely to stay in any house you own because a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. 

Stability and security is the now the new normal.  

This is more in line with overseas models, where people stay in their houses longer, accepting their limitations and building a day-to-day life you can count on.  

Now we’ve been through boom-and-bust periods before.  

Prices have always come back - but what if they don’t this time?

Is that such a bad thing?  

People have often said our property fixation has been at the expense of real productivity growth.  

What will happen next is anyone’s guess.  

But the bank also points out another factor: immigration levels are staying stubbornly low.  

We’re not an attractive destination and that may be because of the image we’ve presented of ourselves as a basket place economy. 

It may be that the housing crisis is over and so welcome to a stable economy. It’s not a get rich quick paradise anymore, but it is still a nice place to live.   

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