Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news that Apple's tax tussle with the EU isn't going its way. And more than NZ$20 bln is at stake.

But first up, US jobless claims were reported lower in the seasonally adjusted data, but actually rose in the raw data, and by quite a bit. There are now 1.608 mln people on these benefits, a +2.1% increase in a week. This may be the very first actual sign of the long-awaited American labour market weakening - although to be fair these levels are only back to August levels and still far lower than most points in 2023.

The USDA WASDE update confirms earlier trends where American beef numbers are slipping and imports are rising. Prices are expected to rise well into 2024. American milk production is falling too and they raised their 2024 forecast milk price.

China slipped fully into deflation in October with consumer prices -0.1% lower than in September and -0.2% lower than in October a year ago. Neither levels are in themselves important, but the trend is.

Meanwhile, Chinese producer prices (PPI) remained -2.6% lower in October from a year ago, although these prices were unchanged from September. So perhaps the deflationary forces are running out of steam in China's factories. But they are not out of the woods yet. These pressures are still severe and perhaps one reason Beijing has reverted to imposing a fixed (to the USD) exchange rate. Even when goods from China are sold in CNY, they are priced first in USD, making the claims that the CNY/CNH is rising a bit hollow.

Yesterday we noted that Beijing had directed Ping An to rescue Country Garden. Well, investors weren't impressed and trashed the Ping An share price, it falling -10% or more than -US$5 bln in the day’s trading. Everyone outside of Beijing knows this is a bad idea.

In Europe, Apple has lost the latest skirmish over the huge fine a lower court imposed for avoiding taxes using its Irish domicile. At stake is €13 bln (NZ$23 bln). Apple won its first appeal but has now lost this more senior appeal. The loss has had no impact on its share price.

International air travel rose strongly in September, up +31% from a year ago with the Asia/Pacific region up +92%. Of course the base was very challenged. Compared with September 2019 however we still have some way to go to get back to those levels, but there is a recovery underway.

Also rising, and more sharply than in the prior week, container freight rates were up +7% last week. Rates out of China to both the US and Europe drove the increase. Bulk cargo rates have started rising again.

The UST 10yr yield is up from yesterday as bond prices rise yet again, now at 4.62% and a rise of +9 bps. 

The price of gold will start today at US$1963/oz and up +US$9/oz from this time yesterday.

Oil prices have recovered a minor +50 USc overnight, to be just under US$76/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is up more, now just on US$80/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar starts today at 59.4 USc and unchanged from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +¼c at 92.6 AUc. Against the euro we are a little firmer at 55.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on at 69.3, and up +30 bps.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$36,490 and up a strong +3.0% from this time yesterday. That puts it over NZ$60,000 for more than one day for the first time since April 2022. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just on +/- 3.9%.

You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.