Economy Watch

Kia ora.

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with we should note that US benchmark bond yields are moving up and are now at a three-week high on expectations that the Federal Reserve will deliver multiple rate hikes in the current tightening cycle.

But first, US initial jobless claims rose last week to 207,000 which was notably more than seasonal factors would have expected. There are now 1.504 mln people on these benefits. Apart from the pandemic recovery, these have been driven down by tighter qualification criteria to levels last seen in the 1970s. On a population-adjusted basis, this is the lowest ever.

Also falling to very low levels, US existing home sales fell in October sharply and are now at a 16 year low. This is far below what was expected, a -5.5% fall in just one month. Over the whole country, there is now one year's unsold inventory at the current sales rate.

Overnight there were a number of Fed speakers out, and most with the same message. The Chicago Fed boss said the October CPI result was 'borderline disturbing'. Meanwhile Michael Barr was talking about AI and inequality. And the Cleveland Fed boss said she wanted to see more frequent rate moves to stay on top of the inflation threat.

US crude oil stocks jumped by more than +4 mln barrels last week, the first meaningful rise since mid-August. But their strategic petroleum reserves fell again last week, now down at critical levels and touching lowest-ever levels. Meanwhile OPEC updated their assessment of oil markets and you can find that here.

Across the Pacific, Japanese producer prices have been increasing at above a +7% rate since since May and June. They were expected to start trending lower with analysts expecting an October rise of +6.5% (year-on-year, +0.3% from September). But in fact they rose, up +7.1% from a year ago, up +0.7% from the prior month. This is not a good signal.

Inflation has returned to India at a high level, and for them that means food inflation. They said their October CPI was up 6.1% from a year ago. Remember a year ago it was only up 0.3% from the prior year. This year food prices are up 8.5%, This year's monsoon rains have been erratic, attributed to the impact of El Nino. And the prospects for reliable rainfall are low with the year-to-date national deficit approaching -10%.

Australian inflation expectations stayed a very high 5.3% in November according to the widely respected Melbourne Institute survey. (The same survey showed wage expectations weak at +1.3%.)

Global container freight rates dipped last week (-2%) to be +132% higher than year-ago levels still. But bulk freight rates rose +13% in the past week to be +43% higher than year-ago levels.

The UST 10yr yield is up +10 bps from yesterday, now at 5.11%.

Wall Street has been undermined by the Nvdia drama.

The price of gold is down sharply, down -US$124 at just on US$3876/oz even. Silver is now just on US$50/oz and down -US$2 from yesterday.

Oil prices have dipped -50 USc today, to just under US$87.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is little-changed at just on US$94/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar has dipped overnight, down another -10 bps to be just on 55.5 USc. Against the Aussie however we are up +30c at 81.5 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at just under 50.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 59.6 and down -10 bps.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$71,789 and down -3.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been moderate at +/-2.3%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again on Monday.

Track 1219389

Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Kia ora.

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news of tensions persisting in the Middle East and no real progress in 'negotiations'. The oil price has firmed overnight after at least two tankers were attacked, one on fire. In November so far, at least one vessel is being hit every day, on average.

However, first today in the US, home loan interest rates dipped -9 bps to 7.21% and this was enough to bring refinance borrowers back into the market, and those needing mortgage for a new home purchase came too. Overall mortgage applications rose +6.2% from the prior week, only the third rise in the past 13 weeks. At least this one was chunky - the other two were minor. But despite the rise, current levels are still low, down in the 2023/2024 range - and prior to that, levels last seen in the 1990s.

And even though it is Veterans Day in the US and a holiday for some, financial markets are still trading.

Across the Pacific, Japanese machine tool orders for October came in very strong again, up +43.2% from the same month last year which was also very strong. In fact, October 2026 order levels are their second best month ever.

Chinese vehicle sales dropped -9.2% in October to just over 3 million units and this follows September's -8.4% fall. In fact October 2026 vehicle sales were also lower than in 2024. Strong export growth offset a sharp decline in domestic sales.

Also muted was this year's Singles Day sales promotion in China. Sales fatigue and the fact 'sales' now go on all year has seen this once-crucial retail driver fade sharply this year.

In Australia, lending data for the September quarter delivered strong evidence of their real estate market showdown. The number of lending commitments to owner-occupiers were down -9.8% from a year ago, but within that lending to FHBs was down a very chunky -12.3%. But that is 'nothing' compared to how fast lending to investors is falling, with the number of loan commitments down -30.6% in September from June, down -38.5% from a year ago. Loan values declined at similar paces. These are the largest falls on record.

The UST 10yr yield is little-changed from yesterday, still at 5.01%.

Wall Street has decided yesterday's fall was overdone with the S&P500 up +1.5% today and the Nasdaq up +2.1%. Apparently, Anthropic's IPO has been "multiple times" oversubscribed. Coreweave's profit beat also helped sentiment, especially for tech.

The price of gold is down again, down -US$23 at just on US$4000/oz even. Silver is now just on US$52/oz and up +50 USc from yesterday.

Oil prices have risen +US$1.50 today, to just over US$88/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is up +US$2 at just on US$94/bbl. This is despite Saudi oil exports now having fully recovered after the earlier Houthi attacks.

The Kiwi dollar has fallen overnight, down another -30 bps to be just on 55.6 USc. Against the Aussie however we are down -40c at 81.2 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at just under 50.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 59.7 and down -20 bps.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$74,200 and up +1.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at +/-1.0%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Track 1219389

Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Kia ora.

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news  the US is getting a brutal lesson on how to make their economy uncompetitive, by looking inward, applying tariffs, and accepting higher costs.

But first, there was a Pulse dairy auction overnight that was relatively positive in USD terms, more so in NZD terms. Of note, the dominant WMP price rose +2.2% from the prior week's full auction and is back over US$4000/tonne for the first time since July 2025.

But the big market-moving news overnight is the US inflation result. They skipped posting a year-on-year result because the year-ago data is 'missing' due to a Government shutdown at that time. But everyone else can calculate it as just over 4.0%, up notable from September's 3.7% and above analysts' estimates of 3.9%. They did note that fuel costs are up +37.4% in the year to October. No-one was impressed by this result (or the way it was 'avoided'). Equities fell, bond yields jumped, and markets generally went into risk-off mode.

And Fed speakers turned hawkish on inflation. Governor Waller warned that a +50 bps rate hike in December may be needed. That was followed by a speech by Dallas Fed boss Logan, who backed at least two additional quarter-point hikes, adding those may be necessary at a quicker pace. The Warsh Fed is signaling in a way Kevin Warsh promised they wouldn't, and in a rising track in a way Warsh promised Trump they wouldn't do. And that is because they have a serious inflation problem. They haven't had average almost 4% inflation like they have in the past six months (other than in the pandemic recovery) since briefly in 2008, and prior to that in 1988.

Other US data out overnight shows jobs growth in the private sector averaging 19,750 per week in the past four weeks (no change).

There was little-change in the NFIB sentiment survey showing uncertain but still net-negative levels in thsi sector.

And US household debt for Q3 was reported showing an unusual rise in non-housing debt by +US$54 bln and delinquency rates rising. That said, the overall growth in household debt was only 'moderate' due to slower housing debt growth.

The November WASDE report from the USDA has confirmed that US beef production is on the decline and in a serious way, so much so that US meatpacking plants are closing. That means a continuing appetite for beef imports.

Across the Pacific, China reported that exports rose at a fast clip in October, aided in part by generous subsidies, tax breaks, and official support. Exports were up +35.2% in the month from the same month a year earlier. The official MIC2025 policies have also helped enormously to build the comprehensive infrastructure they have to dominate a vast range of key industries. For a country like New Zealand this is very helpful, allowing us to buy goods at prices and specifications we couldn't otherwise afford. But for China's main economic rivals, the coordinated strategy looks predatory in a way that would be illegal in just about every market economy that values competition. And even for us, we are increasingly addicted to their supply chains. The pushback from this hugely successful national strategy is growing, starting from the strategic vulnerability risks. In just ten months, China has recorded a trade surplus exceeding +US$1 bln and is on target to easily beat their 2025 record.

China has its own problems with this success. Its domestic economy is stuttering and exports are one of just a few sectors than are growing. It pays their bills - even if it isn't sustainable long-term. Beijing knows what the problem is and its distorting effects; it just can't seem to do anything about it

Malaysian industrial production rise +6.3%in September from a year ago, up from a +5.0% gain in August, and above the expected +5.8% recovery. It was their strongest growth since June.

In Australia, consumer sentiment is sinking again in November, and has now breached a new four year low. In fact, it was only lower in April 2020. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey shows over 70% consumers expect further rises in mortgage rates over the next year. There was a big downgrade in consumer house price expectations. And job loss concerns are rising gradually although most are still not overly alarmed. This survey reveals Christmas spending plans will be softer as the mortgage belt is hunkering down.

Australian business confidence and conditions both fell again in October, and a sharp drop in forward orders suggests tougher trading ahead, according to the latest NAB Monthly Business Survey. Business confidence edged down in the month, while business conditions fell also. Forward orders fell sharply in October with the decline broad-based but led by construction and manufacturing 

And it isn't only in Australia that consumers are feeling under pressure. The latest Japanese survey of household spending reveals a sharp retreat in September, in fact to the largest shrinkage since the pandemic period.

The UST 10yr yield is up +14 bps from yesterday on the US inflation result, now at 5.01%.

It looks like the gigantic US$90 bln Anthropic IPO is going ahead, which values the firm at US$1.4 tln, despite ructions related to Nvidia. Promoters will have the pressure on fund managers to join in.

The price of gold is down again, down -US$88 at US$4023/oz. Silver is now just under US$51.50/oz and down -US$1.50 from yesterday.

Oil prices have fallen another -US$1.50 today, to just over US$86.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is down -US$2 at just on US$92/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar has fallen overnight, down -30 bps to be just on 55.9 USc. Against the Aussie however we are up +30c at 81.6 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 50.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 59.9 and down -10 bps.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$72,857, and down -2.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at +/-1.7%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Track 1219389

Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Kia ora.

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news markets seem to like the expected guardrails on the US President, so risk appetites have returned today even if none of the underlying problems have been addressed anywhere. But it seems to be enough for oil prices to fall, tech confidence to return, and yields to retrace.

The greenback has come under pressure while the AI-driven market rotation aspects lost momentum overnight

In the US, their median inflation expectations for the year ahead were steady at 3.9% in October, the same as in September, and holding at 2023-highs, according to the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations.

American wholesale inventories rose in September to breach the US$1 tln level for the first time ever, up +7.8% from year-ago levels. As outsized as that may seem, they are still reporting that their 'sales-to-inventory levels remained low.

Today's US Treasury 3yr bond auction brought higher demand and lower yields as 'safety' trumps returns at this event, compared to the prior equivalent event a month ago. Eyes will be on tomorrow's US CPI outcome

Taiwanese exports shone again, up almost +59% from year-ago levels and better than the +50% anticipated. The usual suspects drove the gains. That enabled them to post a +US$27.9 bln trade surplus in the October month, far and away the best monthly result they have ever had. A year ago they had a record surplus too but that was 'only' +US$21.5 bln.

We get China's October export data later today.

In China, October CPI inflation was reported at 0.7% as the annual rate, lower than for September (0.9%)  and lower than expected (0.8%). The sharply falling cost of vegetables and pork kept a lid on most other costs, including a +20.2% jump in fuel prices. Also, beef prices rose a startling +8.7% from a year ago, and lamb prices by +5.8%. Dairy products fell -1.2% however on the same year-on-year basis.

But going the other way, China's PPI inflation jumped more than the expected 5.3%, coming in at to 5.7% for October and its fastest growth since June 2022 and well above the September 5.0% level. It is an acceleration that will be very unwelcome even though much of it is fuel-cost related..

Germany also reported export and trade performance overnight but theirs was for September. At €141.1 bln, their exports were +7.7% higher than year ago levels and their trade surplus came in at +€15.6 bln and little changed from the +€15.5 bln level for the same month in 2025.

The UST 10yr yield is up +2 bps from yesterday, now at 4.87%.

The price of gold is down -US$59 at US$4111/oz. Silver is now just under US$53/oz and up +US$1 from yesterday

Oil prices have fallen -US$3 today, to just under US$88/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is is down -US$4.50 at just under US$94/bbl.

And we should probably note that fuel rationing has been re-started in Russia. Even in areas on the border with Mongolia and China. The nation's petrol and diesel exports have been 'suspended'.

While in India, Diwali-induced smog is choking New Delhi.

The Kiwi dollar has recovered a lot since yesterday, up +80 bps to be just under 56.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +60c at 81.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +40 bps at 501 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.0 and up +60 bps.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$75,001, and down -1.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/-1.5%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Track 1219389

Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Kia ora.

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news  data from the world's two largest economies has heads being scratched.

But first in the week ahead locally we will get a look at October retail sales with electronic card transaction data on Thursday and it isn't expected to very good. And the RBNZ's inflation expectations survey will be out for Q4 this week too.

In Australia it will be a light data week, apart from the important Westpac consumer sentiment update and the NAB business sentiment update, both for November.

In the US, there will be CPI and PPI updates for October released this week.

In China we will also be watching their October CPI and PPI, plus their trade data where their surplus is expected to stay very high - remaining a growing irritant to its trading partners. Their domestic economy signals are not expected to shine and the key data point for this will be for October new yuan loans.

Over the weekend we got new indications that their demographic problem isn't improving, with marriages (and therefor births) still falling sharply.

And China has passed 'anti-corruption' laws that tries to expand its jurisdiction to overseas countries. And at the same time their law requires foreign companies to provide information involving graft cases, while barring overseas law enforcement from conducting anti-corruption investigations in China. Chinese exceptionalism is on the rise.

China's FX reserves were little-changed in October, moving only because of currency shifts and asset variations. But China did add almost +1.1% to its gold holdings for the 24th consecutive month, with reserves rising +25.8 tonnes to 2435.4 tonnes at the end of October.

And we should note that there is a US-China summit meeting between their two presidents in about ten days time in Shenzhen (population 18.5 mln), their tech powerhouse center just across the border from Hong Kong (population 7.5 mln). There are more tech billionaires in Shenzhen (130+) than in Silicon Valley (80+).

In the US, their October non-farm payrolls surprised with a headline seasonally adjusted rise of +165,000 jobs and very much higher than what was expected or indicated in parallel non-official monitoring. On an actual basis, they say payrolls rose a bit more than +1 mln in October.

The wider population survey results were very positive too, recording employment up +744,000. The curious thing is that no-one else noticed these surges happening. 

Meanwhile the rise in average earnings cooled, average hours worked marginally fell, and the participation rate was unchanged. None of these metrics back up the strong employment rises claimed.

Best to wait a month or two to see if they are sustained. On their own they give the Fed room to fight inflation harder as their labour market is apparently rising fast. 

And also better than expected was the November release of the widely watched University of Michigan sentiment survey, which was less pessimistic than in October. It shifted back to its August levels and off its all-time lows to be little-changed from year-ago levels. Inflation expectations fell back too, now at 4.3% and a better improvement than expected. This survey pre-dated the election but perhaps there was a sense of the impending outcome; the wealthy got notably grumpier in these results; the less well off saw upsides in the future.

US consumer debt rose +US$28 bln in September, rising a strong +6.4% from a year ago. Leading the debt binge was a very sharp +14.5% rise in revolving debt which includes credit cards. This isn't a great sign given it indicates fast-rising debt stress in the most expensive personal debt category.

Canada also released October labour market data over the weekend and while the total number of jobs dipped only very slightly (-4,700), it would have been worse without the +13,400 gain in part-time jobs. Their jobless rate rose to 6.7% and giving up the gains since April. The expected December rate hike there is now probably in doubt.

The Canadian government released its 2026 Budget with a clear focus on building resilience and independence from the US. It is a transition that will cost them large public sector investment and longer deficits. They have had to slow their defense budget growth to accommodate what they plan. But in the age where "everything is national security" they probably don't see it that way.

EU retail sales slipped in September from August to be only +0.9% higher than year ago levels, by volume. But at least that is still a real rise. And it might be better than it looks because all the retail volume fall is due to buying less fuels. Eastern and Nordic Europe saw strong retail gains. It was falls in Germany, Spain and Italy that capped the gains. Interestingly, retail sales volumes were strong in France in September.

Global food prices edged lower in October, although dairy prices held most of their levels. Meat prices dipped, mostly on falling Chinese pork prices.

And while we are thinking globally, the OECD is reporting that inflation in their 38 member countries at 4.55%, up from 4.27% in August.

The UST 10yr yield is up +1 bp from Saturday, now at 4.86% but that is down -7 bps from this time last week.

The price of gold is up +US$11 at US$4170/oz and up +4.8% for the week. Silver is now just under US$52/oz and little-cghanged from Saturday. A week ago these prices were US$3876/oz and US$52/oz respectively.

Oil prices have risen +US$1 today, to just under US$91/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is also up +US$1 at just under US$98.50/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$104/bbl and US$113.50/bbl respectively so they are down -14% in that time.

The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from Saturday at just on 55.4 USc which makes the weekly drop -90 bps and which we make as its lowest since 2009. Against the Aussie we are down -10c at 80.7 AUc. Against the euro we are holding just over at 49.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 59.4 and unchanged from Saturday to its lowest in 17 years as well..

The bitcoin price starts today at US$75,930, up +0.4% from this time Saturday, but down -1.7% for the week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at +/-0.7%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Track 1219389

Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Kia ora.

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news financial markets are shunning exposure to tech stocks today on the expectation that their free-ride will be coming to an end over the next few years as a result of the US election shifts. Some specific stocks like SpaceX (-10%) are down sharply. The AI backlash is threatening datacenter investment plans.

Tomorrow we get the October US non-farm payrolls report and a +65,000 gain is anticipated by financial markets. Today, October monitoring of US job cuts had them staying at a low 44,000 level and that equals a three year low.

US jobless claims were low again last week at 176,700 and slightly below what seasonal factors would have accounted for. There are now under 1.5 mln people on these benefits and near their lowest since 2023. Much tighter qualification requirements are a significant reason for this falling level.

The Richmond Fed boss said today that policy interest rates are going to have to rise, but he claimed the pace would be gradual. The Cleveland Fed boss said something similar today too.

US light-vehicle sales fell to an annual rate of 15.54 million units in October, down -0.9% from a year ago. That's a fall of -140,000. Affordability remains a major challenge for the industry, with pressures showing no signs of easing. They have tariffs to blame for that. The average monthly payment on a new-vehicle financing contract reached US$823 in October, up +2.6% from a year earlier. Conventional hybrids continue to attract strong demand, as they have over the past year

But US gloom seems to be lifting. US holiday retail sales are set to rise +4.5% year-on-year in the last two months of 2026, marking the strongest growth since 2021, according to research by Visa Economics.

Taiwan’s CPI inflation rate eased to 2.3% in October, down from a 31-month high of 2.7% in September. It has been above their central bank’s 2% target for six consecutive months now.

Across the Pacific, Malaysia held its central bank policy rate unchanged at 2.75% overnight. 

Meanwhile in Europe, the Swedish central bank raised its policy rate by +25 bps to 2.0% citing inflation risks. However the Norwegian central bank met too, but deferred any changes to their 4.5% rate at this time after their September hike. They are nervous about inflation's track as well.

As expected, the Bank of England raised its policy rate by +25 bps to 4.0%, its first increase since mid 2023. Unusually for them, the vote was almost unanimous - the one dissenter wanted a +50 bps hike. And that is because their current CPI inflation rate of 3.5% is expected to rise relentlessly to 5% over the next year or so.

Australia delivered a strong export performance in September with them up +2.3% from August and up +10.4% from a year ago. Meanwhile their imports fell -3.3% from August but were up +11.7% from a year ago. That means they recorded a +AU$2.85 bln trade surplus in the month, only marginally smaller than the AU$3.05 bln in the same month in 2025. Driving their exports were strong sales of gold (+18.2%) and minerals (+11.0%). Not driving their gains were exports of "rural goods".

Global container freight rates were little-changed last week to be +124% higher than year-ago levels. Similarly, bulk cargo rates were little-changed too, and they are now +36% higher than year-ago levels. Somewhat confirming that, the New York Fed's global supply chain pressure index remained at little-changed levels in October. But is still quite elevated.

And it is probably worth noting a couple of high-profile failures overnight LIV Golf can't be saved and its run has ended.  And Australian icon department store retailer is almost certainly also going into extinction.

The UST 10yr yield is down -8 bps from yesterday at 4.83%.

Wall Street is falling today with the S&P500 down -3.7% and the Nasdaq down -4.9%.

The price of gold is up +US$56 at US$4120/oz. Silver is now just over US$52.50/oz and up +50 USc from yesterday.

Oil prices have risen a minor +50 USc today, to just on US$90/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is up +US$1 at just on US$96.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from yesterday at just on 56.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +½c at 80.7 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 50 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 59.9 and little-changed from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$76,394 and down -5.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at +/-3.4%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again on Monday.

Track 1219389

Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Kia ora.

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news of a notable relief rally in American financial markets after their decisive election results. Big money injections by billionaires failed spectacularly.  If it results in a fairer, broader dispersion of wealth then the consumer engine that drives the US economy will pick up and business opportunities will improve. 

So we are seeing equity markets rise today. Benchmark bond yields are dipping. The US dollar has had the top taken off it.

Meanwhile, US mortgage applications fell again last week, even though refinance activity rose on a small dip in benchmark mortgage interest rates. New purchase activity we weak again, continuing the decline that started in April.

However the US ADP jobs report for October showed modest new hiring levels (+86,000), similar to September (+,86,000) and better than was expected (+69,000). For a labour market as large as the US however (163 mln) these are tiny, even insignificant levels. We will get the October non-farm payrolls report on Saturday and analysts expect this to rise +65,000.

US exports in September held at the good levels they have been at since March, and imports rose marginally. That means that their trade deficit stayed unusually high at -US$105 bln for the month and little-changed from August. If it wasn't for the exports of aircraft and AI equipment, things would have been much worse. Imports of AI components and especially of fuels were the big categories that moved up.

The US ISM services PMI was relatively stable at a good expansion in October even if it did dip slightly. Of note however is that new order levels fell rather more than was expected and price rises stayed very elevated and not showing any moderation. The alternate S&P Global version of their services PMI was slightly more upbeat.

US crude oil stocks were expected to rise last week after the prior weeks chunky fall. But in fact they fell again, not by a lot, but the retreat is unwelcome. Their strategic reserves dipped slightly too.

Meanwhile in Canada, their exports (driven by oil and gold) came in a bit softer than expected in September but their imports fell noticeably on less car-buying. That resulted in a larger trade surplus for them than was anticipated, and much larger than in August. Their exports and trade surplus with the US both rose

In China, the private S&P Global (RD) services PMI expanded modestly in October, a better result that the official version that reported a small contraction. They say job creation accelerated in the month with output charges declining again despite rising cost inflation.

In India their services PMI shows activity growth that ticked higher to a good level, and cost pressures receding to lowest in over six years.

In the EU, they reported 4.0% inflation in October, as widely expected, and up from 3.8% in September. Fuel costs are getting the blame. Excluding energy, the rise was 2.3% and no-change for from September. ("Core" inflation is 2.5%, also no change.) The headline range is from 2.8% in Germany to 6.1% in Lithuania.

In Indonesia, a wiretapping scandal by insiders on their President has seen troops put on alert and generals sacked. An unstable Indonesia poses big risks for Australia.

The UST 10yr yield is down -4 bps from yesterday at 4.91%.

Wall Street is in a solid post-election relief rally with the S&P500 up +1.8% and the Nasdaq up +2.0%.

The price of gold is up +US$136 at US$4064/oz. Silver is now  just over US$52/oz and up +US$2.50 from yesterday.

Oil prices have fallen -US$6.50 today, to just over US$89.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is down -US$8 at just on US$95.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from yesterday at just on 56.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at 80.2 AUc. Against the euro we are little-chanhed at 50.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 59.9 and also little-changed from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$80,586 and up +3.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at +/-3.3%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Track 1219389

Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Kia ora.

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news financial markets are on the sidelines of the US mid-term elections, waiting for clarity on the collective US results.

But first, there was a full dairy auction overnight delivering a good +2.95% overall rise in prices in USD, up +4.0% in NZD terms and that is the strongest result since March. It is all built on the powders where SMP rise +3.1% and WMP was up +5.9%. Also cheddar recovered +8.6% and mozzarella was up +5.8%. But the other milk fats were all much weaker. with butter down -4.7%. The overall gain justifies Fonterra's recent hike in its farmgate payout price.

Meanwhile American economic data out overnight was generally quite positive.

US job openings rose unexpectedly by +333,000 to 7.5 mln in September.

There was a small (+1.8%) but unexpected rise in durable goods orders in September from August to put them +10.8% higher than year-ago levels, although +6.3% PPI inflation will be a part of that. All the same, it is a good rise.

And the RCM/TIPP sentiment index rose in November, and to a nine month high, even if it is still below its long run average and still well below its pre-pandemic levels.

The latest update on their Logistics Managers Index shows a rise that describes supply-chain cost pressure is still building however. This maintains its level that match the pandemic era stress.

Voting is underway in the US mid-term elections but the first exit polls won't be available until about 1pm today (NZT). Early voting has been unusually strong.

In Australia, their fight against inflation is proving to be unusually ineffective so far using monetary policy levers. Yesterday the RBA delivered the expected +25 bps hike taking their policy rate to 4.85%, a high among almost all developed countries. But there were a few unexpected signals, the most obvious being the split vote where a minority of members wanted to hold. That, and some other technical indicators brought some financial market reactions, including the AUD easing, and Australian government bond yields dipping modestly. Most observers think the RBA will pause its hiking at its next December 8 meeting.

The UST 10yr yield is back up +8 bps from yesterday at 4.95%.

Wall Street is firmer with the S&P500 up +0.6% and the Nasdaq up +1.1%. Hong Kong rose +0.6% but Shanghai fell -0.8% and that takes its 2026 sell-off to more than -10%. Home team support is no longer working, it seems.

The price of gold is down -US$40 at US$3928/oz. Silver is now  just over US$49.50/oz and down -US$1.50 from yesterday.

Oil prices have fallen -50 USc today, to just over US$96/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is down -US$1 at just on US$103.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from yesterday at just on 56.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 80.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 50.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 59.9 and down -10 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$77,582 and and essentially unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at +/-0.8%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Track 1219389

Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389

Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Kia ora.

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news it is the final day of campaigning in the US mid-term elections and financial markets there are relatively upbeat. Helping is a rather sharp fall in the oil price as the Americans back-track on their tough talk with Iran.

But first in the US, the October factory PMIs were positive, with the widely-watched ISM one rising slightly to a good expansion based on new orders that rose for the first time in four months, and rising output. Inventories expanded, but new export orders didn't although they didn't contract either. Input prices are still rising fast although not as fast as the unusual burst in September.

Meanwhile the internationally-benchmarked S&P Global version revealed rising production and new orders levels albeit at slower rates and broadly matching the ISM levels. However they report price pressures intensified noticeably as supply chain disruption persisted.

Meanwhile, the Canadian PMI expansion fell away noticeably with production and new orders both contracting, their first of 2026. They report a considerable lengthening of delivery times. And price pressures intensified there as well. Factory confidence in their outlook is reported as 'subdued' and job losses are being recorded.

Across the Pacific in China, and unlike the official versions of their factory PMI which recorded a contraction, the private S&P Global (RD) factory PMI in for October held a modest expansion. They reported a rise in new orders and a rise in output. Some went into stock-building however. Encouragingly, these was an easing in cost and price pressures.

We have previously noted the sharp fall in domestic car sales in China, and the rush by manufacturers to sell into export markets. Something similar is happening in their steel industry with sharply lower domestic demand, higher costs (especially for coal), and a focus turn to exports. This shift will undoubtedly raise tensions with the countries they target, especially as Chinese exports benefit from a wide range of national and local subsidies. Even if production output doesn't fall a lot this situation will make Australian iron ore suppliers very nervous about future prospects. In Chinese yuan, these producers are now paying -17.5% less for iron ore than at the start of 2026. In USD, producers are getting -15.5% less on the same basis with prices back to pre-pandemic levels. It is tough being an iron ore miner now. (With copper, the reverse is true with prices up +15% since the start of 2026.)

And there were a number of other factory PMIs out in Asia today. After the weekend one from Japan which revealed a good expansion even if less than in September, South Korea posted much softer but still positive expansion, Taiwan maintained it very good expansion (the best of the region), as did Malaysia. Vietnam's expansion was a bit more modest, but Indonesia found some wind for its sails delivering an expansion that matched Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Indian factory PMI is probably worth a separate mention. Although their level is similar to the US versions, their are seeing good increases in new orders. And this is coming with very modest price changes. That augers well for their export competitiveness.

Eurozone PMI expansions remained solid but modest despite new order growth.

In Australia, the respected Melbourne Institute inflation gauge for September pegged it at 4.8% and a third consecutive monthly rise. This will lock in the +25 bps RBA rate rise later today, taking it to 4.85%.

In Australia there has been a surge in multi-unit residential building consents in September, more than making up for a sharpish fall in consents to build new houses, and allowing the overall level to rise +5.3% from August. That means, September building consents were -0.8% below year-ago levels.

The UST 10yr yield is down another -6 bps from yesterday at 4.87%.

The price of gold is up +US$92 at US$3968/oz. Silver is now  just under US$51/oz and up +US$2 from yesterday.

Oil prices have fallen sharply today, down -US$7.50 from yesterday to just over US$96.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is down -US$9 at just over US$104.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from yesterday at just on 56.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 80.2 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60 and little-changed from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$77,369 and down -1.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at +/-0.9%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Track 1219389

Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389

Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Kia ora.

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news economic performance will get judged by electors this week.

Of course, this week will be dominated by the general election here and most analysts see it as a toss-up with the potential for protracted post-election negotiations. But we will also get quite a few updates of how the October real estate market performed. And of course, we will get the Q3 labour market update on Wednesday (little-change, so little improvement, is expected.).

In Australia, the focus will be all on Tuesday's RBA interest rate decision, where a +25 bps rise to 4.85% is widely anticipated. There will be housing market updates, along with PMI data out this week too.

Other central banks doing reviews this week will be those from Sweden, Norway, Malaysia, Brazil and Mexico.

In the US it is all about their midterm elections on Wednesday (NZ time). On the corporate front, their earnings season continues, with some significant companies reporting. And the week will end there with the US monthly jobs report with jobs growth in October expected to be marginally better than the limp September gain. There will also be ISM PMIs, factory orders, trade data and the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. 

In China, investors will focus on the October S&P Global (RD) Manufacturing and Services PMI reports, with factory growth seen slowing slightly. Over the weekend the official PMI's were not positive. Their official factory PMI fell to its lowest since July and is contracting again. Their services sector slipped into a slight contraction too. Observers will be hoping the S&P Global/RD versions remain more positive than that.

South Korean exports delivered another stunning result in October, coming in almost double the year-ago result and taking their annual exports to just shy of their 2026 target of US$1 tln. That leaves even Taiwan in its wake at US$850 bln. For Japan annual exports are US$750 bln. For China they are US$3.8 tln, so Korea is more than a quarter of the Chinese level, an amazing result for a country with few natural resources and only 4% of their neighbour's population.

In the US over the weekend, the widely-watched Chicago factory PMI slipped in October from September, but it is still expanding solidly and at about the average elevated pace it has shown for all of 2026

Over the weekend a growing set of Fed governors were speaking with a fairly unified message that the US central bank has more work to do to get on top of inflation. This set included both members who vote on the FOMC and those who don't currently but will get rotated on soon. Last week's no-change capitulation ahead of their election involved risks most of these weekend speakers were uncomfortable with.

In Canada, they said its September GDP dipped slightly from August in a weaker than expected update.

In the EU they posted a +1.5% gain in GDP in Q3-2026 from the same period in 2025. This was slightly better than expected. Keeping this up were the Nordic and Baltic countries, along with good expansions in both Spain and Portugal, Germany came  about average, but France posted a small decline.

In Australia, Cotality reported that last week's auction clearance rates in its residential real estate market meant that October had the lowest of any month in 2026.

Updated IATA data shows global passenger travel was weak in September, hurt primarily by weak domestic travel in the US and India. International travel was marginally positive, and that included the Asia/Pacific region.

The UST 10yr yield is down -6 bps from Saturday at 4.93%.

And we should keep an eye on junk bond yields. At the bottom end they are spiking very sharply, Yields on CCC-rated bonds (the lowest tier of junk debt) have spiked past 18% in the US and 21% in Europe, up sharply from earlier in the year. If this spreads up to other sub-investment grade bonds, an ugly bond rout is possible.

The price of gold is down -US$145 at US$3876/oz. Silver is now  just under US$49/oz and down another -US$3.50 from yesterday.

Oil prices have risen +US$2 from Saturday to just over US$104/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is still up at just on US$113.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from Saturday at just on 56.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 80.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60 and little-changed from Saturday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$78,076 and up +0.5% from its much lower level over the weekend as more evidence come to light of the huge hack of Binance by North Korea. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at +/-0.5%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Track 1219389

Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI