Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news we are slipping in the Happiness rankings, and slipping fast in the inequality measures within it.

But first, last week's American initial jobless claims report brought no surprises, coming it at a similar level to the prior week and exactly as anticipated. But they season factors suggested they should have decreased a bit more than they did. There are now 2.13 mln people on these benefits, +6 more than year-ago levels.

There were a lot more existing homes sold in the US (excludes new-built homes) in February that either in January or than were expected. But they were still at a lower level that a year ago, and the volume of listings rose +5.1% from a year ago.

The latest regional Fed factory survey was from the Philly Fed and its rust-belt region, and while it remained positive, most markers declines in March. New order level declines were part of that.

And that is consistent with the Conference Board's latest update of American leading indicators, which declined in February.

Across the border in Canada, and perhaps somewhat surprisingly, producer prices rose +4.9% in February from a year ago, an easing of the price pressure from January. But it is still the second fasted rise on this basis since the end of 2022. Raw material cost increases are keeping this measure up.

And staying in Canada, their central bank boss signaled a policy change overnight in light of the economic impacts from US tariff threats; rather than setting policy on a median term outlook, the ime may have come for faster, more nimble responses to short-term pressures, he suggested.

China kept its Loan Prime Rates unchanged at today's review with the one-year rate, a benchmark for most corporate and household loans, steady at 3.1%, while the five-year, a reference for property mortgages, holding at 3.6%. Both rates are record lows.

Taiwanese export orders starred again in February. They soared by +31% from a year ago to US$49.5 bln, easily beating market expectations of +22% growth and rebounding sharply from a small January slip. You can see why the mainland government covets the independent offshore island.

German producer prices rose only modestly again, a trend they have been in for four months now after exiting deflation over the past 17 months.

The English central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 4.5% at their overnight meeting. This was as expected.

In Australia, their February labour market data was a surprise disappointment - for the ruling Labor Party at least. The number of people in paid employment fell by -53,000 when a +30,000 rise was widely expected. This is not a small miss, and 'unwelcome' ahead of their upcoming election campaign. But the number of people jobless also fell, and by -11,300, which managed to keep their jobless rate unchanged at 4.1%. The reason both fell is because their participation rate fell to a nine-month low of 66.8%, down sharply from January's 67.2%. People are leaving their workforce faster than usual, many of them boomers. Monthly hours worked in all jobs shrank. Financial markets didn't react badly because it probably will shift the RBA away from worrying about 'tight labour markets' and open up the possibility of rate cuts.

Global container freight rates fell another -4% last week to be -31% lower than year-ago levels. But they are still +59% higher than pre-pandemic levels, even though the down trend is gathering pace. Again it is lower rates on outbound cargoes from China to the US that is driving the decline. Bulk cargo rates however were +3.6% higher than week-ago levels, -17% lower than year-ago levels, but still +60% above pre-pandemic levels (which were unusually low, it must be said).

In another global report, New Zealand is virtually tied with Australia as the 12th happiest country in the 2024 edition of the World happiness Report released overnight. The usual Scandinavian set is at the top, with Costa Rica, but oddly, both Israel and Mexico now rank higher than us, which seems a little odd. Neither Australia nor New Zealand rank well on the inequality measures.

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.24%, down -4 bps from yesterday at this time. 

The price of gold will start today at just on US$3038/oz and up a net +US$5 from yesterday.

Oil prices are up another +50 USc from yesterday at just on US$68/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is at just on US$72/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.5 USc and down -40 bps from this time yesterday in a continuing retreat. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 53 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 66.8, and -40 bps lower.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$83,747 and down -1.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been moderate at +/- 2.2%.

You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news it’s a big day of data locally with our Q4-2024 GDP result out later this morning, preceded by the Fonterra half year result. Either may have market-moving implications.

But a few minutes ago, the US Fed released its latest monetary policy review and projections, the dot plot indications and forecasts, which suggest they see higher inflation in the year ahead (now 2.7% from 2.5% and a smaller economic expansion (1.7% from 2.1%). They also expect a higher jobless rate.

They see two rate cuts this year. Nine of the 19 policymakers expect it to be in the 3.75%-4.00% range by the end of 2025.

But at this meeting there was no policy rate change.

In contrast, the AtlantaFed's GDPNow tracking suggests the US economy is now contracting at a -1.8% rate. Apart from the pandemic period, that would be their worst since the GFC.

After two strong weeks of mortgage application growth, but mostly driven by refinance activity, last week there was a pull back with volumes falling -6.2%. But with the rise in US benchmark interest rates, and the consequent rise in the 30 year home loan rates (their first rise in nine weeks), perhaps this isn't much of a surprise. Still, overall activity is now +6% higher than year-ago levels.

Tariffs and tariff threats are raising prices for basic commodities. For example, American steel is up +27% just from February 7, 2025. There is no way that won't have an inflationary impact there. Thinks cars. Interestingly with international steel diverted, these costs will be lower elsewhere, so the core competitiveness of American-made products are probably going to weaken noticeably. Chinese steel prices are back to where they were in 2017.

Across the Pacific, Japanese exports rose +11.7% in February from the same month a year ago and this was the second best rise since December 2022 and much better than the +7.8% rise in February 2024. Still it wasn't quite as strong as expected.

Japanese machinery orders rose +19.8% in January from the same month a year ago (up to ¥3.27 bln from ¥2.73 bln in January 2024.)

The Bank of Japan kept its key short-term interest rate at around 0.5% during its March meeting, maintaining it at its highest level since 2008 and in line with market expectations. It was a unanimous decision and a cautious stance, focusing on assessing the impact of rising global economic risks on Japan’s fragile recovery. They noted ongoing uncertainties in the domestic economic outlook, including trade policies and global conditions.

The central bank of Indonesia held its benchmark interest rate at 5.75% during its March 2025 meeting, as expected. They have had only one -25 bps rate cut in 2025 which took their policy rate back to where it was for most of 2023. Recently their inflation rate fell to only +0.8%. And there was a sell-off on their stock exchange earlier in the week. So this 'hold' may be their last. The financial instability in Indonesia is a bit of a worry, especially for its neighbour, Australia.

In Turkey, their autocratic president is feeling increasingly vulnerable. He has moved against his main rival with trumped-up charges and the instability has caused the Turkish currency to dive - again. Inflation is running at 39% still but it is falling. And their central bank keeps cutting their policy rate, now down to 42.5%.

The World Meteorological Organisation's latest report, for 2024, is a sobering read. New Zealand may be situated in a climate sweet-spot but that isn't the case for almost all our trading partners. CO2 levels in the planet's atmosphere are now at an 800,000 year high. The future won't be like the past. The main way it will hit our pockets is through insurance costs.

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.28%, up +1 bp from yesterday at this time.

The price of gold will start today at just on US$3034/oz and down a net -US$2 from yesterday.

Oil prices are up +50 USc from yesterday at just on US$67.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is at just over US$71/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.9 USc and down -30 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 53.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 67.2, and -10 bps softer.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$84,613 and up +3.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been moderate at +/- 2.1%.

Join us for the Q4-2024 GDP result at 10:45 am this morning. And before that, we will have the Fonterra half year update.

You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news there are plenty of bumps in the economic road to note today.

But first up today, there was another full dairy auction overnight, one that analysts had been nervous about and the derivatives market saw downside risks (on the uncertainties of how dairy product distortions would fare in the growing tariff disputes). In the end overall prices were unchanged - so no bump here - which the industry will take as a 'win'. But that is in USD terms. In NZD terms it certainly wasn't with prices down -3.3% overall as the USD weakened. Butter inched higher, and to a new record level. So did cheese. But WMP was little-changed, and SMP fell -0.4%. China was in there buying although not with notable enthusiasm.

All eyes now turn to Fonterra's interim report on Friday, and the expectations are for only minor tweaks to their payout levels over that they have already announced at record highs.

In the US, the retail impulse tracking though the Redbook index still shows a strong year-on-year +5.2% gain compared to the same week a year ago, but the advantage is fading and has done so each week in March so far. We don't get a week-on-week reading but for that year-on-year gain to fall from +6.6% three week ago, there must be a sharpish recent fall away.

American housing starts unexpectedly jumped +11.2% in February from January, but that was just making back the -11.5% fall the prior month. The February 2025 build rate was at 1.501 mln units whereas the February buodl date was at 1,546 mln units so a -2.9% retreat on that basis.

It was a similar story for US industrial production - up more in February from January (+0.7%) than expected (+0.3%), but the gains were less (+1.4%) than year-ago levels (+1.7%).

There was a US Treasury 20 year bond auction earlier today and it brought less support, and at a median yield of 4.60%. The better supported prior equivalent event a month ago was at a median yield of 4.77%.

Canada reported its CPI inflation rate at 2.6%, which was a notable rise from their January level of 1.9% and an expectation of 2.2%. It is probably only going to get worse from here due to the snarky tariff war the Americans started and the Canadians collective reactions. Their monetary policy decisions are based on "trimmed mean" rates, and they only moved up slightly.

Across the Atlantic in Germany, and by a two thirds majority, their parliament has approved a massive €1 tln funding increase to allow it to build its defence capability and support Ukraine. It is a massive change in attitude to their fiscal policy direction.

In the Pacific, Indonesia's stock market halted trading yesterday for the first time since 2020 after their market plunged more than -7% from Monday's close. Substantial concerns over economic stability and consumer sentiment are behind the move.

In China the property sector woes are far from over. Another major developer, Sunac, has issued a major 'profit warning', actually a major warning about huge losses. Demand for its projects is very weak.

In Australia, a superannuation fund has been convicted of greenwashing and ordered to pay a fine of more than AU$10 mln for making false claims about how it invested funds.

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.27%, down -3 bps from yesterday at this time. 

And we should probably note that the Tesla share price is down another -6% so far today.

The price of gold will start today at just on US$3036/oz and up a net +US$42 from yesterday, and another all-time high.

Oil prices are down -50 USc from yesterday at just under US$67/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is at just under US$70.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is now at 58.2 USc and unchanged from this time yesterday and maintaining its recent gains. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 91.4 AUc and a new three-month high. Against the euro we are unchanged at 53.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 67.3, and marginally firmer.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$81,895 and down -1.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been moderate at +/- 2.1%.

You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news the US Federal Reserve is meeting to review its monetary policy settings and uncertainty levels are high and rising, both on the growth and inflation fronts.

But first, as we noted yesterday, China's State Council has launched 'a special action plan' to boost domestic consumption, including increasing residents' income and establishing a childcare subsidy scheme. The plan came a week after the Premier's work report to the National People's Congress, which focused on boosting household spending to cushion the impact of weak external demand.

This had a notable impact on many, mainly Asian, financial markets.

Meanwhile, China released an important set of recent data overnight. Their new home prices in 70 cities dropped by -4.8% year-on-year in February, easing from a -5.0% decline in January. This marked the 20th consecutive month of decreases but represented the softest pace since last June. For second hand home prices, they are down -7.5% year-on-year.

China's retail sales were up +4.0% in the January/February period, a better rise than for any month, other than for October.

China's industrial production was said to be up a strong +5.9% in the same period. However that doesn't quite square with their electricity production data in the same period which was -1.3% lower.

Singapore's exports recovered in February after the disappointing January data. There were up +7.6% after falling -2.1% in January. However, that bounce back was weaker than analysts had expected (+8.7%).

Indian exports were unremarkable in February, coming in just under US$37 bln and still low for an economy of this size, certainly one that is 'booming'. In India, it is all about internal demand. For reference, India's exports were US$41.4 bln in February 2024, so a shrinkage of -11% on that basis. They may be looking for new markets to shore up this weak performance.

Legendary investor Warren Buffett once said his strategy is to be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Right now, market fears are high, in fact 'extreme'. So what is he doing? He is raising his stakes in Japanese trading houses.

US retail sales in February were a disappointment. They fell -0.2% from January when a rise was anticipated and are now -0.9% lower than year ago levels. On an inflation-adjusted basis it will be worse than that. January data was soft too, and revised lower. Seven of the report’s 13 categories recorded declines, including car sales on a year-on-year basis. This data is consistent with earlier data indicating defensive consumer attitudes.

A 'fear' retreat by American consumers will likely have more of a global impact on trade and consumption than tariffs by themselves.

That same hesitancy also shows up in the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index which fell in March to its lowest level in seven months, and below what was expected. Current sales conditions fell sharply, sales expectations in the next six months held steady, while traffic of prospective buyers dropped sharply too. And not helping the builders is cost uncertainty.

It is even tougher in the latest update of the Empire State factory survey by the New York Fed. This is often a volatile survey, but the March results record the largest pullback since May 2023. New order intake levels were particularly weak. Capital spending was very weak too. The New York Fed called the retreat "significant".

But at least national business inventories in relation to sales activity are still within range, even if they did rise in February.

In Canada, housing starts fell -4% in February to an annual rate of 229,030 units, down from a revised 239,322 units in January and below market expectations of 250,000.

Less trade has seen the OECD trim its 2025 and 2026 forecasts for economic expansion. Annual GDP growth in the United States is projected to slow from its +2.8% 2024 pace, to be +2.2% in 2025 and +1.6% in 2026. China's growth rates are slowing too. But they do expect improvements in Australia. (See page 5.) They see inflation rising to above policy target levels. New Zealand gets no mention in this update.

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.30%, down -2 bps from yesterday at this time. 

The price of gold will start today at just on US$2994/oz and up another net +US$9 from yesterday.

Oil prices are up +50 USc from yesterday at just on US$67.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is at just on US$71/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is now at 58.2 USc and up +70 bps from this time yesterday. That is its highest level since December 10, 2024. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 91.2 AUc and a similar three-month high. Against the euro we are up +40 bps at 53.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 67.3, and up +50 bps to a two month high.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$83,439 and down just -0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at +/- 1.2%.

You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news China's inability to get out of its rut, and the fast-fading of the American exuberance are the dominating global economic scene-setters.

And this week it will be all about by the US Fed and its Thursday monetary policy review. They face the prospects of higher inflation in the immediate plannable future from the costs of the new tariffs, an expansion that is faltering fast, and probably a wave of job losses. How they assess those conflicts will be keenly followed by financial markets, even if no rate change is expected.

New inflation pressures are also hitting Canada, and they will release CPI data this week, along with retail sales data.

And many other countries will have monetary policy reviews this coming week, including Japan, China, Sweden, Switzerland and the English. Japan will also release inflation data.

And China is about to release retail sales and industrial production data later today along with a look at February house prices.

Over the weekend in China, after the spectacular rise in January loan growth, reported their February levels came in quite low, showing the policy-induced surge could not be maintained. There were only ¥1.01 tln in new loans extended in the month, far below the ¥5.03 tln January level and back to levels it bounced along at for most 2024 months. The February 2024 level was ¥1.45 tln, so this 2025 result is a definite sag since then.

New official energy is going into boosting consumer demand by tackling consumers property losses, that haven't responded so far to prior efforts, and to 'stabilise' their stock markets.

And their foreign direct investment data out for February was very weak again, only ¥114 bln in February, -20.4% lower than the already low ¥143.4 bln in the same month of 2024. And this is off the back of a 2024 which was their lowest FDI inflows in eleven years. For perspective in February 2022 they attracted ¥220 bln in foreign investment, so this 2025 level is about half of that.

Across the Pacific, the widely anticipated American March survey of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan was out and it fell much more than expected. In fact it recorded its lowest level since November 2022. It is now down -27% from a year ago.

One key reason Americans are so glum (apart from the chaos of policy gyrations), they fear a sharp return of inflation. Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped up from 4.3% in February, already a high level, to 4.9% this month, also the highest reading since November 2022 and marking three consecutive months of unusually large increases. Their new long term inflation expectations of 3.9% have now hit a 32 year high.

There is probably much more to come. The US price of timber is already rising and now at its highest level two years. Industrial commodities like tin are also tracking much higher. We have previously noted the cost of eggs which even after a recent pullback are still almost double what they were a year ago. There will elevated interest in the AtlantaFed's GDPNow tracking when it is updated tomorrow.

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.32%, up +1 bp from Saturday at this time. 

The price of gold will start today at just on US$2985/oz and up another net +US$2 from Saturday. Over the weekend it briefly spiked to US$3000 but then retraced sharply before settling at the current level.

Oil prices are little-changed from Saturday at just over US$67/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is at just on US$70.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.5 USc and unchanged from Saturday. Against the Aussie however we are also unchanged at 90.9 AUc. Against the euro we are holding as well at at 52.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 66.8, and also virtually unchanged.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$83,632 and down -0.7% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at +/- 1.5%.

You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news the gold price is approaching US$3000/oz again after hitting a new record high earlier today. The equity markets are falling again. Benchmark bond yields are in risk-aversion mode but corporate debt yields are rising.

But first, US initial jobless claims were little-changed last week from the prior week, slipping slightly on seasonal factors. There are now 2.163 mln people on these benefits, +4.0% more than at this time last year.

American producer prices were up +3.2% in February from a year ago, slightly less than expected (+3.3%) and a notable fall from January (+3.7%). But January was an outlier. The average in 2024 was +2.5%.

This updated chart of the price of eggs in the US is interesting. They are now up +100% in one year, up +42% in 2025 alone. US egg prices are rising faster than gold.

There was a US Treasury 30 year bond tendered overnight and to slightly less demand. It resulted in a median yield of 4.56%, which was less that the 4.68% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.

Meanwhile, US yields for sub-investment grade corporate bonds ("Junk bonds") have jumped in the past week or so on recession fears and tariff uncertainty. Today there were more tariff threats from Trump who can't seem to understand why others would retaliate.

North of the border, riled up Canadians are now proposing to toll US trucks that go through B.C. to service Alaska. But this won't hurt Alaska much as most of their freight arrives by sea. However they seem to want to make a point by withdrawing a long-standing concession. Elsewhere, supply-chain and retailers are noticing significant anti-US consumer demand shifts.

And staying in Canada, their residential building consent levels slipped in January, pretty much as expected after the surge in December. But they remain an impressive +29% higher than a year ago, largely due to multi-unit construction.

Across the Pacific, Beijing has quietly moved to inject public funds worth ¥500 bln (NZ$120 bln) into ailing state-owned banks. It is a similar rescue to the 1998 Asian Financial Crisis when they injected the ¥270 bln for the same reason - wavering SOE bank health.

Chinese warships may have been circling Australia for geopolitical warning reasons. Or they may have had other objectives as well. Yesterday the official work report from the Chinese National Congress was released, and it includes a mention (page 17) of it now being a "key task for 2025" to develop "deep-sea science and technology", which is a new item added this year. It's a reach of course, but we may be seeing more Chinese vessels on our presumably valuable continental shelf. If we don't want them there we will have to develop the ability to keep them away.

Global container freight rates fell another -7% last week to be their lowest since January 2024 but still +67% higher than pre-pandemic levels. Bulk cargo rates rose sharply last week, up +27% for the week to be a third lower rthan this time last year.

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.27%, down -3 bps from yesterday at this time. 

Wall Street is falling again, down -1.4% on the S&P500. 

The price of gold will start today at just on US$2980/oz and up another +US$48 from yesterday. And that is a new all-time high. In intra-day trading it hasn't yet quite touched US$3000, but close, and probably soon.

Oil prices are down -US$1 at just over US$66.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is at just under US$70/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.1 USc and down -20 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie however we are unchanged at 90.8 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 52.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 66.4, and down -10 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price started today at US$80,780 and down -1.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been moderate at +/- 2.1%.

You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news retaliation on retaliation seems to be the order of the day in the US tariff policy - exactly has observers had expected. The whole thing is a no-win battle and a repeat of a history lesson that failed the first time - one it should be noted that resulted in the 1929 Depression.

Both Canada and the EU responded with retaliatory tariffs on imports from the US. Washington threatened more on them for responding.

Separately, in the US, lower energy costs brought their CPI inflation rate down to 2.8% in February from 3.0% in January. This was a better result than expected. A year ago, CPI inflation was running at 3.2% and decreasing, when it dropped to 2.4% in September.

But no-one expects the dip to last, as the tariff costs get passed on to consumers.

Another fall in the long term US benchmark interest rates has brought another healthy rise in mortgage applications hast week, up at an +11% annual rate from the prior week. Again it was a continuing sharp surge in refinance activity (+16%), that drove the increase, rather than new lending (+4%).

There was another well-supported US Treasury bond auction overnight, this one for their ten year maturity. It resulted in a median yield of 4.27%, sharply lower than the 4.56% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. Safe haven demand is strong.

The Bank of Canada cut its key interest rate by -25 bps to 2.75% in its March decision, as expected and previously signaled, to mark -225 bps in rate cuts since the start of its loosening cycle in June 2024. More rate cuts are expected, especially now they can see a major economic bump coming from the tariff war.

Japanese PPI is still rising at +4.0% year-on-year in February, reinforcing how embedded inflation has now become in Japan. And probably at a higher level than they are comfortable with. It's the sixth straight month it has exceeded 3%.

In China, their national set-piece policy meetings adopted a 4% to GDP debt limit, but even local observers pointed out this will end up far higher than what will turn out in 2025. They will need massive new debt to achieve their 5% growth target. That much more debt creates a local government honey-pot rush.

India's CPI inflation rate fell sharply in February, down from 4.30% in January to 3.60% in February, a fall larger than the 4.0% expected. The pace of the drop in food price inflation drove the moderation. This will probably lead to more rate cuts by their central bank.

On the other hand, India's industrial production rose faster than expected. It was expected to be +3.5% higher in January than a year ago matching the December expansion. But in fact it came in +5.0% higher.

In Greenland, the 56,000 mostly Inuit voters have chosen the opposition centre-right, pro-business party as their new government. And declared they don't want to be American (or Danes, for that matter).

Also rising was Russian CPI inflation, which came in at +10.1% in February, up from 9.9% in January, driven by the +11.7% rise in food prices.

In an extension of targeting its 'friends', the US confirmed that there will be no exemptions for tariffs on Australian steel and aluminium. Of course, the US still expects those it offends to keep buying US products and services.

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.30%, up +4 bps from yesterday at this time.

The price of gold will start today at just over US$2933/oz and up another +US$17 from yesterday.

Oil prices are up +US$1 at just over US$67.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is at just under US$71/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.3 USc and up +20 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie however we are unchanged at 90.8 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 52.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 66.5, and up +20 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price started today at US$82,161 and up +1.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.0%.

You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news the US is doubling its tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium to 50% in a tantrum over Canadians asserting their independence. Wall Street reacted badly, dropping another -1% and taking the losses to -10% over the past four week, a drop in the market capitalisation of the S&P500 of about -US$2.5 tln. That is just the start of course because there are thousands of other companies on a range of other indexes like the Dow (down -1.4% today) and the Nasdaq (down -0.6% today). Bad public policy is expensive. There will be echoes in KiwiSaver accounts, some loud.

Financial markets are signaling a US recession. Apparently Warren Buffett expected a Trump recession and has adjusted his holdings for that.

Meanwhile, the US Redbook retail index was +5.7% higher last week than the same week a year ago, an easing from th +6.6% rate the prior week.

January job openings is the US rose on strong demand in the retail sector. They rose by +232,000 to 7.74 mln, up from a revised 7.51 mln in December and above the market expectation of 7.63 mln. Quits rose too in January. January layoff levels in the government sector were particularly low, but this is expected to change over the next few months.

There was a still well-supported US Treasury 3 year bond action earlier today which ended with a median yield of 3.85%. But this was sharply lower than the prior equivalent event a month ago of 4.26%.

In Japan, the January household spending survey released yesterday delivered a large shock, with spending falling the most in one month since 2021. That dragged their year-on-year gain down to just +0.8% from +2.7% in December. No-one saw this coming, although it has to be said there have been other December/January shocks in the past and all followed by a recovery in February. All the same, perhaps Japanese households are suddenly turning fearful about what lies ahead, with reason this time.

In China, there is massive confusion over its trade rail link to Europe, and alternative to sea freight. The Russians are seizing the cargoes as they enter their territory. This is no minor trade disruption.

The Australian consumer sentiment survey by Westpac/Melbourne Institute reported a solid improvement in March, and taking it to its highest level since May 2022.

Meanwhile the NAB business sentiment survey for Australia reversed in February in their report released today. They said business conditions rose marginally in February, with small lifts in both trading conditions and profitability. However, there was a notable fall in business confidence which fell -6 points, largely offsetting the improvement seen in January.

The total value of housing in Australia owned by households reached AU$10.6 tln as at December 2024, up +4.4% from a year ago. That is a AU$448 bln rise in a year, but far less than the +8.1% rise in the year to December 2023, or +AU$760 bln. If we included the dwelling stock owned by others, the rise to December 2024 was also up +4.4%, and that adds another AU$440 bln, taking the total value of Aussie housing stock to AU$11 tln. Interestingly, all the 2024 rise happened in Q1-2024 - total values were flat for the rest of the year even after their new builds were added.

According to a global air quality review of 2024, only 7 countries met WHO air quality standards. That included New Zealand, Australia, Iceland and Estonia, plus three Caribbean islands. Globally, this is as bad as its ever been. And now that the US has pulled funding for this monitoring, we will only get results in future for first world countries that fund their own. (The US funding for its own monitoring has been cancelled too.)

And finally, we should probably note that 56,000 Greenland voters are voting in a national MMP election. Results will be known tomorrow.

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.26%, up +3 bps from yesterday at this time.

The price of gold will start today at just over US$2916/oz and up +US$17 from yesterday.

Oil prices are holding unchanged at just on US$66.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is down -US$1 at just over US$69.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.1 USc and down -10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie however we are unchanged at 90.8 AUc. Against the euro we are down -50 bps at 52.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 66.3, and down -30 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price started today at US$81,309 and recovering +3.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has stayed high at +/- 3.4%.

You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news Wall Street has taken sudden fright on the growing realisation of what Trump has wrought for them. It's risk-off in a big way with equities falling sharply and bond yields retreating. Normally on a risk-off phase the USD rises, but this time it's actually softer. Putin's puppet isn't good for business.

Probably not helping is that one-year US inflation expectations are rising, the first rise in four months, and to its highest since May 2024. The broader survey reported rising pessimism. Fear of job loss jumped sharply. The worries about missing a debt payment over the next three months jumped to 14.6%, the highest level since April 2020. The increase was driven by those without a college degree and largest for those under age 40, the demographic that drove the election result.

And its not just consumers. American farmers are recoiling at the impact on them and their markets. It is likely that farm spending and investment decisions will take a long holiday until most USDA and USAID programs are restored. Reports and data from those agencies are likely to become very unreliable now that DOGE-aligned managers are now in charge. Farmers are voting with their checkbooks and it is going to be tough for the wider agribusiness sector.

And it is probably worth noting the the Tesla share price is down another -13% so far today. That is a now a -53% drop since the US election.

Across the Pacific, there were a set of indicators out for Japan overnight. Their leading economic indicators index, which gauges the economic outlook for the coming months based on data such as job offers and consumer sentiment, edged up to its highest reading since October. However, that was slightly less than expected. On the other hand, annual household spending rose for the first time in five months, its fastest growth since August 2022. However consumer sentiment slipped.

China said it will impose a 100% tariff on imports of certain Canadian agricultural products, along with a 25% levy on seafood and pork. They will come into effect in ten days in response to Ottawa's trade measures. Canada had previously imposed a 100% tariff on Chinese-made electric vehicles starting October 1 last year, aligning with similar actions by the US and EU over concerns of unfair competition. Additionally, Canada implemented a 25% tariff on Chinese steel and aluminium imports, effective since October 15 last year. They are trying not to be gamed in the manoeuvring between the US and China.

And you may be interested to know that Beijing authorities have launched a trial of street patrols by robot dogs. Given their pervasive 'social security' system tied into the extensive facial recognition systems, this seems a particularly dystopian development.

In Europe, German industrial production rose in January from December and by more than expected. That has helped them eat into their year-on-year decline, taking it to its smallest level since mid-2023.

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.23%, down -7 bps from yesterday at this time. 

The price of gold will start today at just over US$2898/oz and down -US$12 from yesterday.

Oil prices are down -50 USc at just on US$66.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is down -US$1 at just over US$69.50/bbl. 

The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.2 USc and up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie however we are up +30 bps at 90.8 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 52.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 66.5, and up +10 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price started today at US$78,624 and down another large net -4.8% from this time yesterday. That means it is given up all its gains after the US election in November, and more. Trump seems to have 'lost' the crypto tech-bros too. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at +/- 3.4%.

You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news we start the week with current data that is almost certainly not indicative of what's to come. The policy landscape is in ferment.

First in the week ahead however, locally it will be all about migration, retail sales, and a look a second look at 2025 inflation levels. In Australia their data releases will be about business and consumer sentiment, and industrial production.

Elsewhere, India will release a CPI update. Canada's central bank will review its policy rate on Thursday (NZT) and is expected to cut it by -25 bps to 2.75%.

In the US, upcoming updates will be for CPI and PPI, the Michigan consumer sentiment survey, and January JOLTS job data.

But first up today, weekend data releases from China confirmed they have slipped into a deflationary funk. Consumer prices fell -0.7% in February from a year ago (-0.5% was expected), and producer prices were down -2.2% (-2.1% was expected).

China's consumer price decline was their first consumer deflation since January 2024, amid fading seasonal demand following the Spring Festival in late January. Food prices fell the most in 13 months, down -3.3%, dragged by a steep decrease in cost of fresh vegetables and a sharp slowdown in pork prices. Beef prices are down -13.3% from a year ago, lamb prices by -6.6%. Milk prices are down -1.4% on the same basis.

China's producer prices are falling faster than consumer prices, but not really at an accelerating rate.

Earlier in the weekend, China said its exports rose +2.3% in February, but that was notably less than the +5% rise expected. China's imports fell -8.4% when a +1% rise was expected. That means their merchandise trade balance rose to +US$170 bln, well above the January +US$142 bln and spiked by reactions to US trade and tariff policies. Their data shows a -US$1.1 bln February deficit in their trade with New Zealand. With Australia it was a -US$8.4 bln deficit.

We may also get China new yuan loan data at the end of this week, although it is coming in a bit later, and weaker, these past few months.

Despite all the US, China and global trade woes, the New York Fed's tracking of global supply chain pressures is reporting a pretty sanguine situation. Of course, that will undoubtedly change going forward.

In the US, the February non-farm payrolls report showed the US economy added +151,000 jobs in February, slightly below the +160,000 expected. The January data was downwardly revised to +125,000 from the original +143,000. Their jobless rate ticked up to 4.1%. We should note that virtually none of the DOGE cuts are reflected in this data. Their participation rate fell.

The actual unadjusted rise in February from January was +891,000 in this payroll survey data, but that was less than seasonal factors would have usually delivered and less than the +1,065,000 gain in the same period in 2024. Including the unincorporated self-employed, the total number of employed people was 162.5 mln, and that was less than in January. The shift to company payrolls is still happening but slower, and the total number of people actually employed actually dropped. Average weekly earnings were up +3.4% from a year ago and that was their least in more than a year. (Over the past 12 months, that rise has averaged +3.7%, so a notable tailing off in February.)

The US Fed boss Powell talked about the outlook for the US economy over the weekend, and commented that they see no reason to be cutting their policy rates any time soon.

The US Fed's tightening process continues with their balance sheet now down to US$6.75 tln, down by -US$782 bln in a year and eating into its pandemic surge now. Pre-pandemic, it was a balance sheet equivalent to 19.0% of US GDP. It peaked at 35.4% in April 2022. Now it is back to 22.5% of GDP. So normalisation looms. (For reference the RBNZ balance sheet is also currently at 22.5% of our GDP.)

In Canada, their February labour force data wasn't that flash. Full-time employment fell -20,000 while part-time employment rose +21,000. But their average hourly wages rose +4.0%. Their participation rate fell too. No-one expects this labour force data to improve while the tariff war hostilities build in 2025.

The US president has threatened Canada again, this time with 'reciprocal' tariffs on dairy and timber. If he goes ahead, it will almost certainly backfire on Americans. Canada is already the US dairy industry's second largest export market and that market will almost certainly reject US goods. And Canadian timber is well-embedded into US house building. Trump wants US national forests harvested to replace Canadian supplies but that will take time to build volumes, and come at higher prices.

In Australia, plans to call an April federal election have been shelved, partly because of the expected physical and financial clean up after tropical cyclone Alfred. There are now still more than ¼ mln people without electricity this morning, and the storm is lingering longer than expected and the flooding heavier. The new expected election date will be sometime in May. There will be a new Budget update there in three weeks, on Tuesday, March 25, 2025.

In Western Australia, their incumbent Labor government won with a thumping majority, way better than anticipated.

Today the UST 10yr yield is now at 4.30%, down -2 bps from Saturday at this time. 

Here is an update of Wall Street earnings for Q4-2024. It is pretty positive.

The price of gold will start today at just over US$2911/oz and up +US$3 from Saturday.

Oil prices are still just on US$67/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is just under US$70.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.1 USc and up +10 bps from Saturday. Against the Aussie however we are down -10 bps at 90.5 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 52.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 66.6, and up +20 bps from Saturday.

The bitcoin price started today at US$82,620 and down a net -5.6% from this time Saturday. That means it is given up all its gains after the US election in November. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.4%.

You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.