"Capacity reduction is clearly under way. Regulatory enforcement of qualifications and safety standards was arguably the most welcome development in 2025 for our industry." - Adam Miller, CEO of Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings

The trucking industry has been flooded with headlines about enforcement: English language proficiency checks, non-domiciled CDL restrictions, immigration raids, and court stays.

On the surface, this might look like a political story or an emotional response to a few high-profile fatal crashes, but it is not primarily about either paperwork or politics.

It's about freight market capacity. Who is allowed to operate? Where are they willing to operate? Can they operate profitably while following the rules? And how quickly can excess freight capacity be removed without destabilizing the whole system?

In this episode of the Art of Supply podcast, Kelly Barner covers:

• Why CDL enforcement has become a de facto freight capacity lever
• What the data says about drivers and smaller freight companies leaving the market
• How localized disruption is starting to show up before national trends
• And what we should be watching instead of (or at least in addition to) the headlines

Links:

• Kelly Barner on LinkedIn
• Art of Supply LinkedIn newsletter
• Art of Supply on AOP
• Subscribe to This Week in Procurement

Imagine a single railroad company that could move freight seamlessly from the ports of Los Angeles to the ports of New York without handoffs, interchange delays, or needing to switch carriers mid-journey.

That's the promise behind the proposed merger between the Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern railroads. If the deal is approved, it will create the first single-line transcontinental railroad in U.S. history, spanning more than 50,000 miles across 43 states and nearly 100 ports.

Supporters say this could make rail a more serious competitor to long-haul trucking, lowering costs and improving supply chain efficiency. Critics say it risks concentrating too much power in too few hands in an industry where four railroads already control more than 90% of U.S. freight.

Earlier this month, regulators hit the reset button. The Surface Transportation Board (STB) rejected the merger application - not on its merits, but because the paperwork was incomplete.

In this episode of Art of Supply, Kelly Barner covers:

• What Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern are proposing, and why it would be historically significant
• The arguments for the merger, including efficiency, cost, and competition with trucking
• The arguments against it, from labor, shippers, competitors, and policy advocates
• Where the Surface Transportation Board fits in, and what the January 2026 rejection means from an approval and timeline standpoint

Links:

• Kelly Barner on LinkedIn
• Art of Supply LinkedIn newsletter
• Art of Supply on AOP
• Subscribe to This Week in Procurement

In late 2023, one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints effectively broke.

After Hamas' October 7th attack on Israel, Houthi militants began targeting commercial shipping in the Red Sea. Initially, their target was Israel-linked vessels, then they increasingly started targeting anything that passed through.

What followed was a near-collapse of confidence in the Suez Canal, a route that normally handles roughly 10–12% of global seaborne trade. Ocean carriers rerouted thousands of ships around the Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks, cost, fuel burn, and complexity to global supply chains.

Fast forward to late 2025 and early 2026, and something quietly significant happened: Maersk, the world's second-largest container carrier, sent ships back through the Red Sea. It wasn't a full return or a declaration of victory, but it was a meaningful test.

In this episode of the Art of Supply podcast, Kelly Barner covers:

• Why Maersk's Red Sea test voyages matter more than they may appear
• The economic and capacity pressures pushing carriers back toward Suez
• Why a "safe reopening" may still create winners and losers
• What procurement and supply chain leaders should be watching for next

Links:

• High Stakes in the Red Sea
• Kelly Barner on LinkedIn
• Art of Supply LinkedIn newsletter
• Art of Supply on AOP
• Subscribe to This Week in Procurement

In early December of last year, two thefts took place in Taunton, Massachusetts, that involved two usually wonderful things: lobster and logistics.

The stolen property was valued at $400,000: approximately $250,000 worth of lobster and $150,000 in crabmeat. Both thefts took place at the same warehouse. The crimes were a massive hit to all of the businesses involved at one of the most critical times of the year.

Unfortunately, this kind of fraud-based theft is all too common. Even more unfortunately, the opportunity to steal this property was created by security lapses in the supply chain. Significant effort went into tricking the warehouse to hand over the seafood, but it worked.

In this episode of the Art of Supply podcast, Kelly Barner covers:

• The theft: who, what, where, and when
• How common this form of theft is, and the multi-agency law enforcement effort that is being mounted in response
• All of the forms of cost associated with 'fictitious pickups'

Links:

• Kelly Barner on LinkedIn
• Art of Supply LinkedIn newsletter
• Art of Supply on AOP
• Subscribe to This Week in Procurement

"When the Wright brothers got their airplane up in the air for the first time, it wasn't because they overcame the laws of physics, it was because they figured out how to harness those laws." - Patrick Kilbride, Policy Fellow at the Center for American Principles

The rate and scale of change taking place around us are so destabilizing that it would be easy to think that 'old ideas' no longer apply. Could economic principles that were articulated in the late 1700s possibly be relevant in a global, digital economy?

Patrick Kilbride, Policy Fellow at the Center for American Principles, and principal at Kilbride Public Affairs, says yes – and he recently re-read Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations to prove it to himself.

Patrick is a public policy expert with experience as a Deputy Assistant U.S. Trade Representative. He has held a number of executive strategy- and policy-focused roles at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Today, he is a Policy Fellow at the Center for American Principles, a 501(c)(4) focused on personal liberties, free markets, and strong national security.

In this episode of the Art of Supply podcast, Kelly Barner speaks with Patrick about the wisdom Adam Smith and his contemporaries can still offer us today:

• Why (and which) economic principles articulated during the Enlightenment still hold true today
• The quality of life improvements that have been driven by productivity gains despite population growth
• The role that governments can play in supporting enlightened self-interest

Links:

• Patrick Kilbride on LinkedIn
• The Center for American Principles
• Kelly Barner on LinkedIn
• Art of Supply LinkedIn newsletter
• Art of Supply on AOP
• Subscribe to This Week in Procurement

'Tis the season… for making supply chain predictions. Given how volatile 2025 was, anyone willing to share their opinions about the coming year deserves an award for courage.

In this episode of Art of Supply, the last of 2025, Kelly Barner shares her curated list of picks for the most compelling 2026 supply chain predictions, not ranked in any particular order, and with no guarantees for how likely they are to come true.

These predictions suggest that:

• Localization, automation, and resilience will keep colliding with reality, not hype
• Decision-making will stay fast, data will stay late, and companies will learn to live with the gap
• Rising costs and tighter oversight (from freight to cyber risk to returns) will force uncomfortable tradeoffs
• Government influence on supply chains isn't fading, it's expanding in new and unexpected ways

Links:

• Kelly Barner on LinkedIn
• Art of Supply LinkedIn newsletter
• Art of Supply on AOP
• Subscribe to This Week in Procurement

GE Appliances has been making news for years for the success of their reshoring program. It is a great story: a well-known consumer brand that is bringing production home, both to their own benefit and also to the benefit of customers and employees.

But even while GE Appliances has continued to make investments and earn positive headlines for continuing their commitment to reshoring efforts and partnering with suppliers, one of their competitors isn't so sure.

Whirlpool recently alleged that GE Appliances, along with two other competitors, was evading tariffs by artificially lowering the declared value of the goods they import – without passing those 'savings' along to customers. But does the data show evidence of misdeeds?

In this episode of the Art of Supply podcast, Kelly Barner covers the balance of GE Appliances's good headlines and recent allegations against them:

• Background on GE Appliances's efforts to reshore production and the investments that has required
• The additional ways they are investing in domestic supplier partnerships, through collaboration and consultation
• And the recent investigation into potential tariff fraud… as alleged by Whirlpool… and what might explain the discrepancies

Links:

• Advancements & Adjustments in the GE Appliances Supply Chain
• Kelly Barner on LinkedIn
• Art of Supply LinkedIn newsletter
• Art of Supply on AOP
• Subscribe to This Week in Procurement

UPS is currently stuck between dropping parcel rates, rising union leverage, and stiff competition from their peers. Unlike their peers, UPS is unionized (part of the Teamsters), adding additional complexity and bottom-line pressure.

Not one to give up after 120 years in business, UPS has been looking for creative ways to make ends meet without disappointing the public. They created a massive buyout opportunity for drivers and have been working with gig drivers to handle spikes in seasonal volume without paying expensive overtime. Both strategies are saving them money, but running afoul of the Teamsters in the process.

In this episode of the Art of Supply podcast, Kelly Barner looks at UPS's challenges and the creative options they are trying in response:

• Leveraging gig drivers while warning against the danger of a loosely-managed final mile
• Introducing automation where they can, shutting warehouses where they can't
• Working to maintain a premium delivery service in a world dominated by low-cost eCommerce volume

Links:

• Negotiating the Big One: UPS and the Teamsters Labor Union
• Kelly Barner on LinkedIn
• Art of Supply LinkedIn newsletter
• Art of Supply on AOP
• Subscribe to This Week in Procurement

Commercial Driver's Licenses have been in the news a lot lately, and not for good reasons. A number of fatal accidents have been caused by questionably licensed drivers. These high profile incidents have caused a number of states and the Federal government to start digging into who is getting these licenses and how.

Much of the current situation dates back to a regulatory change made in 2022 that allowed CDL training schools to 'self certify' that they are turning out qualified drivers. The idea was to make it easier to get more drivers on the road in response to a reported driver shortage, but we've gotten less safe roads instead.

According to reporting by FreightWaves, there are approximately 100,000 truck crashes annually resulting in roughly 5,000 fatalities - a 40% increase over the last decade.

In this episode of the Art of Supply podcast, Kelly Barner digs past the recent headlines about CDL administration:

• Looking into the 2022 regulatory change, including the minimum federal requirements for safe commercial drivers and the system supposedly put in place to ensure training schools follow them
• The details behind the debate over English language proficiency and the eligibility status of non-domiciled drivers
• And the question that underpins it all: Is there a driver shortage?

Links:

• Kelly Barner on LinkedIn
• Art of Supply LinkedIn newsletter
• Art of Supply on AOP
• Subscribe to This Week in Procurement

On June 18, 2023, the OceanGate TITAN, a submersible on its way to the Titanic wreck site, imploded, killing all five passengers, including OceanGate CEO, Stockton Rush.

There were a number of factors leading to this tragic event, including a horrible disregard of basic safety measures, a deliberate effort to work outside of regulatory and inspection protocols, and a toxic company culture.

While many of these issues were internal, OceanGate did not make the TITAN or its predecessors in-house. This means that they had suppliers, and those companies had a front row seat to what was unfolding.

In this episode of the Art of Supply podcast, Kelly Barner covers the OceanGate operation from a supply chain point of view:

• OceanGate's evolutionary journey – first to buy and retrofit their submersibles and then to build them
• The different suppliers that played a role in manufacturing the TITAN, and signs that the company was looking for alternatives
• The challenge presented by innovation that seems to defy convention. When is an idea truly groundbreaking, and when is it just reckless?

Links:

• Marine Board's Report Into the Implosion of the Submersible TITAN in the North Atlantic Ocean Near the Wreck Site of the RMS TITANIC Resulting in the Loss of Five Lives on June 18, 2023
• Kelly Barner on LinkedIn
• Art of Supply LinkedIn newsletter
• Art of Supply on AOP
• Subscribe to This Week in Procurement