Freddie deBoer has a post on what he calls "the temporal Copernican principle." He argues we shouldn't expect a singularity, apocalypse, or any other crazy event in our lifetimes. Discussing celebrity transhumanist Yuval Harari, he writes:

What I want to say to people like Yuval Harari is this. The modern human species is about 250,000 years old, give or take 50,000 years depending on who you ask. Let's hope that it keeps going for awhile - we'll be conservative and say 50,000 more years of human life. So let's just throw out 300,000 years as the span of human existence, even though it could easily be 500,000 or a million or more. Harari's lifespan, if he's lucky, will probably top out at about 100 years. So: what are the odds that Harari's lifespan overlaps with the most important period in human history, as he believes, given those numbers? That it overlaps with a particularly important period of human history at all? Even if we take the conservative estimate for the length of human existence of 300,000 years, that means Harari's likely lifespan is only about .33% of the entirety of human existence. Isn't assuming that this .33% is somehow particularly special a very bad assumption, just from the basis of probability? And shouldn't we be even more skeptical given that our basic psychology gives us every reason to overestimate the importance of our own time?

(I think there might be a math error here - 100 years out of 300,000 is 0.033%, not 0.33% - but this isn't my main objection.)

He then condemns a wide range of people, including me, for failing to understand this:

Some people who routinely violate the Temporal Copernican Principle include Harari, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Sam Altman, Francis Fukuyama, Elon Musk, Clay Shirky, Tyler Cowen, Matt Yglesias, Tom Friedman, Scott Alexander, every tech company CEO, Ray Kurzweil, Robin Hanson, and many many more. I think they should ask themselves how much of their understanding of the future ultimately stems from a deep-seated need to believe that their times are important because they think they themselves are important, or want to be.

I deny misunderstanding this. Freddie is wrong.

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/contra-deboer-on-temporal-copernicanism

[This is one of the finalists in the 2024 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I'll be posting about one of these a week for several months. When you've read them all, I'll ask you to vote for a favorite, so remember which ones you liked]

For the longest time, I avoided reading The Pale King. It wasn't the style—in places thick with the author's characteristic footnotes,1 sentences that run for pages, and spasms of dense technical language. Nor was it the subject matter—the book is set at an IRS Center and tussles with postmodernism. Nor the themes, one of which concerns the existential importance of boredom, which the book, at times, takes pains to exemplify.

No—I couldn't read The Pale King because it was the book that killed him.

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/your-book-review-the-pale-king

[Original post here.]

Aeon writes:

The main complaint about this expression is that it's "not a real apology," and that's true, it isn't. The error is in thinking it is therefore a fake apology. But it isn't, because "I'm sorry" is not a statement of contrition, it's a statement of sorrow. Somehow everyone has gotten confused into thinking an apology is the only correct use for that phrase despite the plain meaning of the words.

This is the comment that best expresses what I wished I'd said at the beginning.

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-sorry

You look up from your massive mahogany desk.

"Tom, right? Thank you for coming…hmm…I see you're applying for the role of Vice-President Of Sinister Plots. Your resume looks very impressive - I didn't even know any of the masterminds behind the Kennedy assassination were still alive."

"That's what we want you to think," says Tom.

"Of course. Then just one question for you. What's something you believe, that very few people agree with you on?"

"I think we're in a simulation."

"Hm, yes, that was very shocking and heterodox back in 2012. But here at Thiel Capital we're looking for something - "

"Let me finish. I think we're in a simulation, and it's a porno."

"What?"

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/interview-day-at-thiel-capital

[This is one of the finalists in the 2024 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I'll be posting about one of these a week for several months. When you've read them all, I'll ask you to vote for a favorite, so remember which ones you liked]

April, 1861 was a cruel month. The American Civil War had just started, and across the Atlantic, high in a remote valley in the western Alps, in the old market town of Morzines, another war was raging, this one pitting the locals against the legions of Hell.

The regional authorities, confronted with an outbreak of townspeople writhing in convulsions, entering trances, shrieking in weird tongues, and suffering from other diabolical whatnot, had begged the central government for help, writing:

"To conclude, we will say: That our impression is that all this is supernatural, in cause and in effects; according to the rules of sound logic, and according to everything that theology, ecclesiastical history, and the Gospel teach and tell us, we declare it our considered opinion that this is truly demonic possession."

Dr. Augustin Constans, Inspector General of the Insane Department (inspecteur général du service des aliénés) was dispatched from Paris to investigate. The Doctor later reported,

"Arriving in Morzines on April 26, I found the entire population in a state of depression difficult to describe; everyone was deep in morbid gloom, living in constant fear of finding themselves or their loved ones consumed by devils."

Dr. Constans' next action was highly unorthodox. Standard protocol for treating these afflictions called for accusing someone of witchcraft, preferably a poor, socially isolated, old woman, (although, in a pinch, anyone of any sex, status, or age would do, and often did), torturing her until she confessed to creating the calamity by consorting with the Devil, and, after that, lighting her on fire, first strangling her to death, if, at this stage of the proceedings, one judged that a modicum of mercy was in order. Undoubtedly aware of this precedent, Dr. Constans rounded up the possessed and subjected them to: …an examination. From which, all of his new patients emerged non-tortured and unburnt.

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/your-book-review-the-history-of-the

People hate this phrase. They say it's a fake apology that only gets used to dismiss others' concerns. Well, I'm sorry they feel that way.

People sometimes get sad or offended by appropriate/correct/reasonable actions:

• Maybe one of your family members makes an unreasonable demand ("Please lend me lots of money to subsidize my drug addiction"), you say no, and they say they feel like you don't love them.

• Maybe you speak out against a genocidal aggressive war. Someone complains that their family member died fighting in that war. They accuse you of implicitly dismissing their relative's sacrifice and calling them a bad person.

• Maybe you argue that a suspect is innocent of a crime, and some unrelated crime victim says it triggers them when people question victims or advocate for the accused. They say that now they are re-traumatized.

I see three classes of potential response:

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/in-defense-of-im-sorry-you-feel-that

[This is one of the finalists in the 2024 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I'll be posting about one of these a week for several months. When you've read them all, I'll ask you to vote for a favorite, so remember which ones you liked]

I.

Suppose you were a newcomer to English literature, and having heard of this artistic device called 'poetry', wondered what it was all about and where it came from. You might start by looking up some examples of poetry from each century, going back until you can't easily understand the English anymore, and find in the 16th century such poems as John Skelton's "Speke, Parott" [sic]:

My name is Parrot, a byrd of Paradyse, By Nature devised of a wonderowus kynde, Deyntely dyeted with dyvers dylycate spyce, Tyl Euphrates, that flode, dryveth me into Inde; Where men of that countrey by fortune me fynde, And send me to greate ladyes of estate; Then Parot must have an almon or a date.

Now that we've gone over the pharmacology of the GLP-1 agonists, let's get back to the economics.

Last time, we asked - how will the economy handle a $12,000/year drug that everyone wants?

Now we have an answer: the compounding loophole.

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/the-compounding-loophole

In a recent post, I said that part of opposing cancel culture is to rigorously define it. Greg Lukianoff, president of FIRE, took up the challenge. His definition, first mentioned in his book Cancelling Of The American Mind, is:

Cancel Culture is the uptick, beginning around 2014 and accelerating in 2017 and after, of campaigns to get people fired, disinvited, deplatformed, or otherwise punished for speech that is — or would be — protected by First Amendment standards, and the climate of fear and conformity that has resulted from this uptick.

When I talk about wanting to "rigorously define it", I don't just mean the kind of definition you would put in a dictionary. Consider the debate around the definition of "woman". It's perfectly fine for a dictionary to say "you know, female person, opposite of male". But the debaters want something you can use to adjudicate edge cases.

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/lukianoff-and-defining-cancel-culture

You are a serious person with serious interests. The last comic book you read was more likely by Bryan Caplan than Jonathan Hickman. You would prefer to be reading high quality book reviews on AstralCodexTen. You believe ACX book reviews are usually more insightful than the books themselves, and a far more efficient use of your time. But even book reviews take time to process, and there are a lot of book reviews to read. Why spend your valuable time reading an 11,000 word review of superhero comic books?

That is the first question I aim to answer in this review. If I am successful, maybe you will invest a little more time to discover the answer to the next four questions.

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/your-book-review-silver-age-marvel