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Episode #1118: Auto loan approvals are climbing as vehicle demand heats up, Jaguar doubles down on its high-dollar EV future, and a new survey shows U.S. shoppers are still splurging on impulse buys.

Show Notes with links:

• New data shows consumers may finally be catching a break in the auto loan market. Approvals are up, interest in buying is growing, and middle-income shoppers are more willing to make sacrifices to keep their vehicles.
  • The New York Fed says auto loan rejection rates dropped sharply in Q2 2025 to 6.7%, down from a painful 19% last year.
  • 14% sought a loan in the past year, and more expect to apply in the coming months.
  • Santander’s latest survey shows 55% of middle-income consumers plan to buy a vehicle in the next 12 months, the highest reading in two years.
  • Tariff fears are real: 18% of respondents sped up a big purchase in Q2 because of price uncertainty, with 41% of those buying a vehicle.
  • Santander says this is the first time in eight quarters that buyers outnumber those delaying a purchase — a sign pent-up demand could finally be turning into sales.

• Jaguar is set on an electric, ultra-luxury future. Despite some loud critics, the brand is preparing a bespoke EV platform and three six-figure models designed to take on the industry’s elite.
  • Incoming JLR CEO PB Balaji says the brand’s EV strategy is locked in, with positive early feedback from customers.
  • Production of all current Jaguars except the F-Pace ended last year as the company stockpiled inventory.
  • First new model — the GT — is a sleek, 600-hp electric sedan with about 425 miles of range and a $150K price tag, expected late next year as a 2027 model.
  • A large, three-row electric crossover will follow in late 2027 or early 2028.
  • The third entry is rumored to be a large, ultra-luxury electric sedan aimed at Rolls-Royce and Bentley buyers, due around 2030.

• While many Americans say they’re trying to rein in discretionary spending, a new survey shows the vast majority still made at least one unplanned purchase last month.
  • Optimum Retailing survey finds 72% of Americans made an unplanned in-store discretionary purchase in the past month.
  • While 34% plan to cut back in the next six months, sales events (55%), eye-catching displays (45%), and immediate availability (26%) make spending hard to resist.
  • Only 5% said in-store shopping no longer feels “worth it.”
  • Many shoppers are sticking to a budget by cutting dining/takeout (48%), clothing/accessories (44%), and electronics/gadgets (37%).
  • “Consumers today are cautious, but not unengaged… The moment and experience must both feel correct,” said Sam Vise, CEO of Optimum Retailing.

Join Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier every morning for the Automotive State of the Union podcast as they connect the dots across car dealerships, retail trends, emerging tech like AI, and cultural shifts—bringing clarity, speed, and people-first insight to automotive leaders navigating a rapidly changing industry.

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On this second Saturday of month, Paul is joined by Chris and Nathan to share all the amazing things dealers are doing in communities across the nation.

This back-to-school season, Toyota-Lexus-Minority Owner Dealers Associatoin partnered with Toyota, The Salvation Army, and Walmart to distribute over 16,000 backpacks filled with school supplies, 6,900 of them through dealerships. As Robert Hatchett put it, this is about investing in students and uplifting communities.

Join Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier every morning for the Automotive State of the Union podcast as they connect the dots across car dealerships, retail trends, emerging tech like AI, and cultural shifts—bringing clarity, speed, and people-first insight to automotive leaders navigating a rapidly changing industry.

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Episode #1116: CarGurus shuts down CarOffer, trimming its wholesale tech reach. Ford opens a Long Beach EV hub to take on low-cost rivals. And OpenAI’s GPT-5 rolls out to all ChatGPT users, promising smarter, faster AI for everyone.

Show Notes with links:

• CarGurus will shutter its wholesale digital marketplace CarOffer less than two years after fully acquiring it, citing a volatile pricing environment and dealer demand for more flexibility.
  • CEO Jason Trevisan said the company explored alternatives but winding down was the only option.
  • The closure impacts Dealer-to-Dealer, a wholesale platform for dealer-to-dealer used inventory trades, and Instant Max Cash Offer, a consumer vehicle acquisition tool feeding dealer inventory pipelines.
  • The shutdown will run through 2025, costing $14M–$19M including $5M–$7M in restructuring.
  • However, CarOffers tech will remain, with Trevisan saying “We will retain and build on the underlying technology…capabilities that…remain central to CarGurus’ sourcing strategy,”

• On the heels of Ford’s “Model T moment” we covered yesterday, the manufacturer has opened a 250,000-square-foot Electric Vehicle Development Center in Long Beach, CA, focused on bringing affordable EVs to market, including a new mid-size pickup.
  • The facility includes design review spaces, EV testing labs, a fabrication shop, and a digital visualization room to accelerate product development.
  • This is part of Ford’s first low-cost EV platform initiative, led by ex-Tesla engineer Alan Clarke, aiming for simpler, more efficient builds.
  • An initial team of 350 employees will grow by 100; the group was formerly known internally as the “Skunkworks Team” for its rapid, innovative approach.
  • A new trademark filing suggests Ford’s upcoming midsize electric pickup could revive the Ranchero nameplate, a nod to the classic coupe-pickup sold from 1957–1979, with the EV version expected to debut in 2027.
  • “The goal is to define a new era for electric vehicles,” said Jolanta Coffey, Ford’s Director of Global New Model Launch.

• OpenAI has launched GPT-5, its fastest and most capable AI model yet, giving both free and paid ChatGPT users access to advanced reasoning for the first time. Just 2.5 years after GPT-4 debuted, the release marks another step toward integrating AI deeper into business, education, and everyday workflows.
  • CEO Sam Altman says going back to GPT-4 after testing GPT-5 was “quite miserable,” citing improvements in speed, reasoning, and usability.
  • New “safe completions” reduce outright refusals while keeping answers within safety guardrails, alongside lower hallucination rates and better handling of complex logic.
  • Free-tier ChatGPT users get a reasoning model; Plus and Pro users get higher usage limits, with GPT-5 Pro for advanced performance.

Join Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier every morning for the Automotive State of the Union podcast as they connect the dots across car dealerships, retail trends, emerging tech like AI, and cultural shifts—bringing clarity, speed, and people-first insight to automotive leaders navigating a rapidly changing industry.

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Episode #1115: Ford’s ready for its “Model T moment,” the Cybertruck heads to military testing, and Rivian turns EV charging into a Hamptons-style retreat.

Show Notes with links:

• Ford is gearing up for a major EV push with plans to build a new generation of affordable electric vehicles, kicking off a pivotal new chapter that CEO Jim Farley has dubbed the company's “Model T moment.”
  • The EV line will include a midsize pickup, set to launch in 2027 from Ford’s Louisville Assembly Plant.
  • Batteries will be supplied by Ford’s upcoming $3B LFP (lithium ion phosphate) battery plant in Marshall, MI, creating 1,700 jobs.
  • The Marshall project has faced controversy, construction pauses, and political scrutiny due to its partnership with Chinese battery giant CATL, but will move forward after securing tax credits.
  • It will be the first U.S. EV battery plant to use LFP chemistry at scale—offering lower costs and better sustainability than traditional NMC batteries, though with less power and range.
  • “Model e continues to make targeted investments where we have breakthrough innovation (next gen EVs), and a distinct advantage (LFP batteries)” said CEO Jim Farley.

• Elon Musk once pitched the Tesla Cybertruck as a military-ready, apocalypse-proof beast. Now, the U.S. Air Force has plans for it—just not quite the way he envisioned.
  • The Air Force Test Center is requesting two Cybertrucks as part of a 33-vehicle target fleet at White Sands Missile Range.
  • A military doc suggests adversaries might use Cybertrucks, which “have been found not to receive the normal extent of damage expected upon major impact.”
  • The goal is to test precision-guided weapons against realistic, resilient targets.
  • The government documents left a glowing review of the Cybertruck saying “Extensive internet searches and industry outreach by [REDACTED] found no vehicles with features comparable to those of the Cybertruck.”

• Charging your EV in the Hamptons just got a whole lot cozier. Rivian’s new Southampton Charging Outpost swaps the gas station vibes for beachside boutique charm—and locals are noticing.
  • The cedar-shingled lounge features six DC fast chargers, a kids’ play area, 24/7 restrooms, and complimentary Hampton Coffee.
  • From August 7–10, drivers can plug in for free, enjoy curated snacks, and even test drive a Rivian.
  • Every mile charged is powered by renewable energy—solar and wind included.
  • This marks Rivian’s 121st Adventure Network site and 15th in the Northeast, reinforcing its strategy of building fewer but friendlier charging stops.

0:00 Intro with Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier
0:37 Kyle is at Beaver Mazda today
1:42 Announcements
3:10 Ford's Next-Gen EVs Are Coming
5:37 US Orders Cybertrucks for Target Practice

Join Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier every morning for the Automotive State of the Union podcast as they connect the dots across car dealerships, retail trends, emerging tech like AI, and cultural shifts—bringing clarity, speed, and people-first insight to automotive leaders navigating a rapidly changing industry.

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Episode #1114: Shawn Fain’s own union members want him out. Chevy’s Silverado EV clocks an unbelievable 1,059 miles on a charge, and as AI reshapes white-collar work, Gen Z is finding job security in scrubs, not suits.

Show Notes with links:

• Shawn Fain, the fiery UAW president who led the landmark 2023 strike against the Detroit 3, is now facing a revolt from within his own ranks. Several union locals have voted to launch removal proceedings, citing layoffs, retaliation, and alleged financial mismanagement.
  • Workers at Stellantis and GM plants joined four other UAW locals in voting to oust Fain, meeting the threshold for a federal monitor to review the allegations.
  • At issue are thousands of Stellantis layoffs since the 2023 contract, said to result from pressure to raise wages.
  • Critics also say Fain retaliated against board members who resisted approving spending.
  • Support for Fain remains strong among graduate student workers, but dissent is growing in Detroit-area factories.
  • “I supported Shawn, but his spending is out of control and he’s retaliatory,” said David Pillsbury, a GM worker behind the petition.

• Chevrolet has set a new benchmark for EV range, pushing a 2026 Silverado EV Work Truck to an eye-popping 1,059 miles on a single charge. The test, though far from real-world conditions, highlights just how much efficiency can be squeezed out of today’s EV technology.
  • 40 drivers took 1 hour turns and averaged just 20–25 mph, taking seven days to complete the run.
  • Tricks included removing the spare tire, overinflating tires, adding a tonneau cover, and shutting off climate control.
  • The Silverado EV WT is EPA-rated for 493 miles, but the hypermiling allowed the 205-kWh battery to return 4.9 miles per kWh—beating Lucid’s 749-mile record.
  • “Getting this kind of range doesn’t happen by accident,” said Kurt Kelty, GM VP of battery and propulsion.

• With tech and business roles slowing under AI pressure, young men are struggling to find footing, while women dominate in growing fields like nursing.
  • Gen Z men see higher unemployment as AI disrupts entry-level business and tech roles.
  • Healthcare remains one of the few industries adding jobs in 2025.
  • Nearly 90% of nursing roles are held by women, offering steady opportunities.
  • Education and hospitality — also female-led sectors — are also adding jobs.
  • Elise Gould, a senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, said, "It could be tougher for men who are looking for jobs where there's just not a whole lot of hiring right now."

Join Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier every morning for the Automotive State of the Union podcast as they connect the dots across car dealerships, retail trends, emerging tech like AI, and cultural shifts—bringing clarity, speed, and people-first insight to automotive leaders navigating a rapidly changing industry.

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Episode #1113: Today we cover Amazon’s push into used car sales, Rivian’s legal battle to sell direct in Ohio, and Ikea’s first-ever retail partnership with Best Buy. 

Show Notes with links:

• Amazon Autos now includes used and certified pre-owned vehicles. Starting in Los Angeles with Hyundai dealers, the program will soon roll out to more cities nationwide.
  • Hyundai dealers can now list used and CPO cars, including non-Hyundai models.
  • Vehicles come with a 3-day/300-mile return policy and a 30-day/1,000-mile warranty.
  • Amazon promises transparent pricing, history reports, and no hidden fees.
  • Customers can browse inventory within 75 miles and schedule test drives online.
  • Amazon’s Fan Jin: “This move continues our commitment to support local dealerships, now connecting dealers with more prospective customers online across new, certified pre-owned, and used vehicle categories.”
  • Todd Caputo on LinkedIn: “Amazon sells purchases — not just eyeballs, phone calls, and form fills. Most dealers still make car buying way harder than it has to be. Amazon won’t.”
    
    
    
• Rivian is taking Ohio to court, arguing the state’s 2014 ban on direct-to-consumer sales is unconstitutional — especially since Tesla was granted a carve-out to sell under the very same law.
  • Tesla was allowed to operate three Ohio stores under a special exemption.
  • Rivian already runs service centers in the state but must sell cars elsewhere and deliver them in.
  • Rivian says the law shields franchised dealers and seeks an injunction to stop enforcement of the ban
  • Rivian’s filing states: “It reduces competition, decreases consumer choice and drives up consumer costs and inconvenience — all of which harm consumers — with literally no countervailing benefit.”

• For the first time ever, Ikea is teaming up with another retailer — and the partner is Best Buy. The collaboration will bring mini Ikea showrooms into electronics stores, starting with kitchens and laundry setups.
  • The first 10 hubs launch this fall in Florida and Texas, averaging 1,000 square feet each.
  • Customers can shop Ikea furnishings paired with Best Buy appliances and get design consultations.
  • Two locations will serve as Ikea order pickup centers, expanding fulfillment options.
  • The partnership mirrors Target’s Ulta and Kohl’s Sephora mini-stores — aiming for “one-stop home solutions.”
  • Ikea COO Rob Olson: “This new partnership is really allowing us to bring the Ikea experience closer to where people live.”

Join Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier every morning for the Automotive State of the Union podcast as they connect the dots across car dealerships, retail trends, emerging tech like AI, and cultural shifts—bringing clarity, speed, and people-first insight to automotive leaders navigating a rapidly changing industry.

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Episode #1112: Carvana’s stock hits jaw-dropping highs while negative equity haunts car buyers. At the same time, a new report says Gen X may quietly be the most powerful consumer group of the next decade.

Show Notes with links:

• What once seemed like a dying online used‑car startup has roared back. Carvana’s share price hit an all‑time high in late July 2025—up over 10,000% from the December 2022 bottom—while short-sellers suffered nearly $7.42 billion in losses.
  • Q2 2025 sales hit $4.84 billion, up 42% year-over-year. Retail units sold jumped 41% to 143,280; wholesale units rose 44.5% to 72,770.
  • Net income surged to $308 million with record profit margins across the board.
  • Traditional peers have seen modest stock gains by comparison — AutoNation is up about 80% and Lithia around 44% — with CarMax actually down roughly 7% in the same period.
  • CEO Ernie Garcia III called Carvana “the fastest‑growing and most profitable automotive retailer.”
  • “This rally…is one of the most spectacular recoveries in modern market history,” said Dave Mazza, CEO of Roundhill Financial.

• A growing share of U.S. car buyers are finding themselves stuck in negative equity, with Edmunds reporting the average underwater loan balance at $6,754 in Q2 2025 — one of the highest levels seen in years.
  • 26.6% of new‑car trade‑ins were upside down, a four‑year high.
  • Average negative equity climbed to $6,754, up $500 from 2024.
  • Nearly one in three underwater trade‑ins carried $5,000–$10,000 in debt.
  • The average monthly payment for these buyers hit $915 — $159 above the industry average.
  • Edmunds’ Ivan Drury warns: “Many are at risk of getting stuck in a cycle of debt that only grows harder to break over time.”

• While millennials and Gen Z grab headlines, new research shows Gen X — those born between 1965 and 1980 — may be the most influential consumer group of the next decade.
  • Gen X is set to remain the world’s highest-spending demographic through 2033.
  • In 2025 alone, they’re projected to drive $507B in food and beverage sales, $80B in beauty, and $42B in alcohol.
  • Nearly 40% use AI assistants for shopping recommendations, defying “tech-averse” stereotypes.
  • 72% prefer name brands over private label, bucking the store-brand trend.
  • “Gen Xers are the gatekeepers of trillions in spending, effectively serving as the CFOs of three generations,” said Wolfgang Fengler of World Data Lab.

Join Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier every morning for the Automotive State of the Union podcast as they connect the dots across car dealerships, retail trends, emerging tech like AI, and cultural shifts—bringing clarity, speed, and people-first insight to automotive leaders navigating a rapidly changing industry.

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On this Saturday, we're highlighting a fun mud run/competitive mud run put on by the Rohrman Auto Group to benefit their local fire department.

Join Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier every morning for the Automotive State of the Union podcast as they connect the dots across car dealerships, retail trends, emerging tech like AI, and cultural shifts—bringing clarity, speed, and people-first insight to automotive leaders navigating a rapidly changing industry.

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Episode #1110: Today we cover Trump’s sweeping auto tariffs, Tesla’s not‑so‑autonomous “Robotaxi” rollout, and the rise of agentic checkout in online retail.

Show Notes with links:

• President Trump’s country-by-country auto tariff deadline has arrived, setting off a new round of trade negotiations and recalibrations for global automakers.
  • Canadian tariffs rise to 35%, though most USMCA-compliant vehicles dodge the hike.
  • Mexico earns a 90-day delay on new tariffs, holding at 25% on non-U.S. content.
  • Japan and South Korea cut tariffs to 15% with total pledges of $900B to U.S. industry
  • Japan is also willing to take American imports based on U.S. standards, meaning American OEMs don’t need to make a different car.
  • “You can take the car you make in Detroit, put it on a boat and send it,” said U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.

• Tesla’s long-hyped “Robotaxi” expansion into the Bay Area looks more like a rebranded Uber than a self-driving revolution. The cars run under Tesla’s app but still rely on humans behind the wheel.
  • Each car has a “safety monitor” in the driver’s seat, making it equivalent to an Uber driver using Tesla’s supervised Full Self‑Driving system.
  • The California DMV and Public Utilities Commission expressed concern after hearing Tesla employees discuss an imminent Robotaxi launch, even though the company has not applied for the required permits.
  • Politico reported that Tesla’s counsel reassured regulators, claiming the rollout was limited to employees, friends, family, and select members of the public.
  • Tesla is now actively recruiting “vehicle operators” in nine additional U.S. cities to replicate the Bay Area service.

• “Agentic checkout” is the latest frontier for artificial intelligence. Payment giants, tech platforms, and retailers are all racing to build systems that let AI handle more of the shopping journey.
  • Mastercard, Visa, Google, and PayPal are each rolling out agentic checkout platforms, designed to let AI act as a shopper’s digital assistant.
  • PayPal is upgrading its decades‑old systems to handle the heavier transaction loads expected from AI‑driven commerce.
  • Experts say the winners will be payment providers and e‑commerce platforms that build the infrastructure for AI agents rather than compete with them.
  • Michelle Gill, GM of small business and financial services at PayPal said that The general sense in the industry is that “rather than competing, these stakeholders increasingly collaborate to harness the potential of agentic AI.”
  • Mastercard’s Co‑President of Global Partnerships, Sherri Haymond, said retailers won’t need to replace entire platforms: “I would encourage merchants to have an open mind, and to lean in and do the work to make their environment accessible in this

Join Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier every morning for the Automotive State of the Union podcast as they connect the dots across car dealerships, retail trends, emerging tech like AI, and cultural shifts—bringing clarity, speed, and people-first insight to automotive leaders navigating a rapidly changing industry.

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Episode #1109: Today we’re digging into Ford’s $3B tariff troubles, why commercial EV fleets are booming even as consumer demand cools, and how OpenAI’s new “Study Mode” could change the way students learn (without just handing out the answers).

Show Notes with links:

• Ford Motor is bracing for a tougher financial year as U.S. tariffs on vehicles, steel, and aluminum cut deeper than expected. Shares dipped 3% after the automaker raised its tariff cost estimate by half a billion dollars.
  • Q2 results were down $800 million from tariffs, less than GM’s $1.1 billion hit.
  • Full-year tariff cost now projected at $3 billion, up from $2.5 billion.
  • Ford sees 80% of U.S. sales from domestic production, cushioning some impact.
  • CFO Sherry House said tariffs on Mexico and Canada stayed higher for longer than expected, with steel and aluminum levies adding to the strain.
  • CEO Jim Farley: “We see there’s a lot of upside depending on how the negotiation goes with the administration.”
• While consumer EV demand has cooled, the commercial EV market is charging forward, with fleet operators driving massive growth. The shift presents new opportunities — and challenges — for dealers, utilities, and policymakers.
  • Commercial EV registrations soared 274% to nearly 25,000, led by delivery vans, utility trucks, and big rigs.
  • Class 2 EVs used for work jumped 69%, while light consumer EVs slipped 2%.
  • Amazon already runs 25,000 Rivian vans, building its own charging network of 32,000+ stations.
  • Dealers remain a critical link, but many fleets report visiting stores where sales teams weren’t ready to support EV conversions.
  • Calstart’s Jacob Richard said state incentives and programs are key “When looking at that total cost of ownership, you kind of need to have those upfront incentives in the near term.”

• OpenAI is taking a swing at the “CheatGPT” label with a major update designed to help, not hand out answers. The new “study mode” in ChatGPT aims to guide students through learning rather than doing the work for them.
  • Study Mode is live for all users now, with ChatGPT Edu access coming soon.
  • It uses Socratic questioning and scaffolded responses to build understanding.
  • Offers personalized support and quizzes for deeper learning.
  • Students are calling it “a live, 24/7, all-knowing office hours.”
  • OpenAI is partnering with Stanford to evaluate its real educational impact.
  • “It helped me finally understand a concept I’d struggled with for months,” said one college tester.

Join Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier every morning for the Automotive State of the Union podcast as they connect the dots across car dealerships, retail trends, emerging tech like AI, and cultural shifts—bringing clarity, speed, and people-first insight to automotive leaders navigating a rapidly changing industry.

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