The most likely person to write On the Edge was Nate Silver.

Grok thinks the next most likely was Michael Lewis, followed by a number of other writers of popular books regarding people thinking different.

I see why Grok would say that, but it is wrong.

The next most likely person was Zvi Mowshowitz.

I haven’t written a book for this type of audience, a kind of smarter business-book, but that seems eminently within my potential range.

On the Edge is a book about those living On The Edge, the collection of people who take risk and think probabilistically and about expected value. It centrally covers poker, sports betting, casinos, Silicon Valley, venture capital, Sam Bankman-Fried, effective altruism, AI and existential risk.

Collectively, Nate Silver calls this cultural orientation The River.

It is contrasted with The Village, which comprises roughly the mainstream [...]

---

Outline:

(02:53) Overview

(07:56) Introduction: The River

(14:21) Nate Silver Comes Home to The River

(18:29) Nate (In General) Makes One Critical Mistake

(18:57) The Village Idiots

(22:22) Alone in the Wilderness

(25:46) Why the River Hates the Village

(29:57) Nate Silver's History of River Versus Village

(38:46) Spending Time at Airports

(41:14) The Coin Flip

(42:15) The Other Risk Takers

(49:45) Aside on Covid

(50:46) What is a Contrarian?

(53:49) Prediction Market Smackdown

(56:53) Checkpoint One

The original text contained 1 image which was described by AI.

---

First published:

Source:

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

---

Images from the article:

Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.