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Jack Farley & Max Wiethe breakdown Michael Burry’s big Nvidia short thesis and the recent projections from HSBC that Open AI will lose nearly half a trillion dollars between now and 2030. They also discuss the recent repricing of Fed rate cuts in December and debate which companies are the biggest losers if AI turns out to be a bubble.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:16 The Biggest Event in Macro

00:55 Breaking Down Michael Burry's Short Thesis for Nvidia

04:47 Semiconductors Are Historically Cyclical

07:08 Is Nvidia a Good Short?

08:25 Criticism of Burry's Analysis

16:38 Fiscal.ai

18:17 Open AI's Massive Loss Projections

24:26 AI Coding Agent Revenues

26:25 Can Nvidia Escape Unscathed?

29:54 Michael Burry's Substack Success

30:54 AI Spending's Impact on GDP

31:56 December Fed Meeting