The market is at a critical point, observes portfolio manager Lance Roberts.If the S&P can hold above the 200 daily moving average over the coming week, then the correction will be officially over and stocks should have an open field to run back up to the previous highs (and possibly higher).If not, then the odds that the recent run have been a bear market rally -- one that will fizzle out and send stocks lower again -- become much more likely.Lance and I discuss the probabilities, as well as bonds, AI, this week's promising data releases, as well as Lance's firm's latest trades in today's Weekly Recap.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#bearmarket #bullmarket #ai 0:00 - Lance 60th birthday wishes3:47 - Status of “sell the rip” strategy8:30 - Technical analysis & market pathways15:06 - Overbought conditions & risk management24:34 - Rising bond yields’ drivers30:59 - Bonds’ role in portfolios36:02 - TLT & bond investment pitfalls43:38 - Emotional investing & risk reduction49:13 - Sentiment-driven market volatility52:04 - Economic data & tariff impacts1:07:21 - Trump administration’s policy momentum1:22:11 - Upside scenario: economic golden era1:29:30 - Downside scenario: policy failure.1:31:17 - Rant: AI’s job displacement threat1:41:46 - Lance's recent portfolio trades.1:45:04 - Parting advice: stay unemotional_____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.