Consumers have already begun re-evaluating their relationship with alcohol, which has me contemplating if another mainstream euphoric is next. Caffeine consumption has deeply integrated into our daily lives. Caffeine is cited as the most widely used psychoactive drug in the world…becoming such a socially accepted ingrained practice that we seldom question its long-term effects on our health. I don’t believe caffeine itself is inherently good or bad…rather a person’s relationship with it determines its impact. But just like any addictive substance, we develop a tolerance to caffeine over time. What starts as a morning cup of coffee or energy drink can easily transform into many to feel the same stimulating effect. The dependence on caffeine creates an ever-increasing cycle of consumption, with justifications ranging from needing it to wake up to increasing concentration at work. But what happens when more people start reconsidering how and why they use caffeine? Right now, consumer surveys seem to signal the marketplace could be in the very early stage of searching to find a healthier relationship with caffeine. This is not unlike what was happening in the early 2010s with alcohol. That first year (2013), Dry January had a few thousand people sign up…but it has now grown into an international cultural phenomenon where millions annually explore temporary alcohol abstinence as a healthy way to start the new year. And the popularity of Dry January is cited as a key contributor to the broader consumer trend of cutting back on alcohol. From what I’ve seen, there has been two broader consumer behaviors that evolved from Dry January; mindful drinking and sober curious. Dry January has also fed into my thesis that “demand breeds commercialization activity," as there's now a huge variety of alcohol-free beverage options to choose from that are great tasting, wellness-focused, and widely available. But in my newest deep dive content...I'll explore if there could be a pattern in consumer behavior emerging that helps us establish a data-informed prediction regarding caffeine. From my understanding, there hasn’t been that “event-based catalyst” like Dry January for caffeine yet. Regardless, I have noticed an uptick in both social media chatter around reduction and self-motivated abstinence challenges around caffeine. Let’s then assume the same types of general consumer behavior trends sprout from it. Instead of mindful drinking…maybe its dubbed mindful stimulation, where it’s about being present and intentional with caffeine consumption. And as a replacement to the sober curious movement, we have decaf curious individuals consciously exploring a life without caffeine consumption. Since this consumer behavior shift hasn’t even crossed the chasm towards early majority adoption yet, this idea of caffeine reduction might seem silly. But reflecting on the history of humanity, we can see how certain practices once normalized are now seen as harmful or strange. I believe the heightened wellness consumer mindset opens a whole caffeine reduction “remixed” world of “energy everything.” Since we live in the “Age of the Endless Aisle,” there will naturally be more options in every CPG category than during any other point in our history...including various caffeine alternatives. And I'll explore both the trending options such as functional mushrooms, nootropics, tea-based energy drinks, usage of caffeine metabolites like Enfinity (branded ingredient known scientifically as paraxanthine).

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