a moderation vibe is settling over the global economy, heralding a lackluster period ahead.

US jobless claims rose last week by +224,000 which was higher than expected and perhaps the start of the long-awaited labour market slowdown. There are now 1.9 mln people on these programs which is still low however, an insured unemployment rate of 1.3%. (NZ Jobseeker-to-labour force rate is 3.4%.)

In its final estimate for Q4-2022 GDP, the US reported that their economy expanded an annualised +2.6%, slightly less than initial estimates of a +2.7% rise. Consumer spending rose +1% and below the +1.4% in the second estimate, as spending on services advanced much less than initially assumed.

The Boston Fed President says she expects only one more +25 bps rate hike from the Fed in this cycle. In her view, inflation will continue to moderate, and there won't be a hard landing.

In Germany, their inflation rate is pulling back now too and as expected. It eased further to 7.4% from a year ago in March, down from 8.7% in the previous two months. Analysts were expecting a March rate of 7.3%. The actual rate was its lowest since August 2022. It peaked at 8.8% in October 2022. There is a downside however, the February to March increase ran at an annualisted rate just below +10%.

EU sentiment eased marginally in March to remain well below its long run average. It is consumers more than businesses that keep this measure low.

In Australia, job vacancies are slipping although are still at a relatively high level. However, this is the first quarterly decline since August 2021, so perhaps this data is telling us something.

The cost of containerised shipping freight fell another -2% last week to now be -36% lower than its ten year average, but still +21% above its pre-pandemic level. China-US rates fell the most, but there was a small uptick in China-EU rates which we haven't seen in a while. Freight rates for bulk cargoes were little-changed last week.

The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.56%, unchanged from yesterday. The UST 2-10 rate curve is marginally more inverted at -55 bps. Their 1-5 curve inversion is greater at -95 bps. And their 30 day-10yr curve is very much more inverted at -92 bps. The Australian ten year bond is up +3 bps at 3.36%. The China Govt ten year bond is unchanged at 2.88%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year is starting today up at 4.25%. That is another +6 bps rise.

Wall Street is still on the up, with the S&P500 tracking a +0.3% rise in late Thursday trade. Overnight, European markets were all positive and up +1.2% except London which gained +0.7%. Yesterday Tokyo ended its Thursday session down -0.4%. But Hong Kong was up +0.6%, and Shanghai ended up +0.7%. The ASX200 ended up a +1.0%, and the NZX50 rose +1.7% in its Thursday trade with a final burst higher across most sectors.

The price of gold will open today at US$1983/oz and up +US$18 from this time yesterday.

And oil prices start today up +50 USc from yesterday at just on US$74/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is now just under US$78.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is up nearly +½c against the USD and now at 62.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are firmish at 93.3 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 57.4 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now at 70.4 with a +20 bps daily rise.

The bitcoin price is very little-changed today, now at US$28,257 and up less than +0.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate however at +/-2.0%.