Cattle Current Market Update with Wes Ishmael

Cattle futures closed sharply lower Friday, weighed down by a host of factors, including bearish outside market, week-end and month-end positioning, uncertainty over next week’s mid-term elections, weaker negotiated cash fed cattle prices and wholesale beef values, etc.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $4.95 lower. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $10.01 lower. Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $8.03 lower and Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $14.32 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on light to moderate demand in the South Central region through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices for the week were $225/cwt. with no previous-week comparison.

Trade in the North ranged from light on light demand in Nebraska to limited on light to moderate demand in the western Corn Belt.

Based on the last established trade, FOB live prices were $4-$4.50 lower in Nebraska at $224 and $3-$5 lower in the western Corn Belt at $222-$224.

Dressed delivered prices were $10 lower in Nebraska at mostly $348 and $5-$15 lower in the western Corn Belt at $350-$360.

Keep in mind, USDA began adding aggregated data to the 5-area direct report, beginning last Monday.

“It now includes all five regions (eight states) once again,” explains Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “Some regions could not be reported due to confidentiality guidelines but that has been resolved by reporting Colorado, Kansas, and Texas/Oklahoma/New Mexico together. This allows for a more robust representation of negotiated cattle trade in the major feeding regions. Thus, data from more finished cattle transactions will be recorded to improve transparency as cattle feeders and packers negotiate trade each week. This should result in a larger head count since Colorado has not been reported since the last week of 2022.”

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.62 lower Friday afternoon at $364.66/cwt. Select was 35¢ higher at $351.98. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $1.13 lower and  Select was 71¢ lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 543,000 head was 3,000 head fewer than the previous week and 14,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 22.7 million head was 1.7 million head less (-7.1%) than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 20.3 billion pounds was 1 billion pounds less (-4.9%).

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed on Friday.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 4¢ lower.

Kansas City HRW Wheat futures closed fractionally lower to 1¢ lower through Sep ‘27 and then mostly 7¢ to 12¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly fractionally mixed.

Cattle futures were mixed to lower on Thursday with profit taking, the week’s lower negotiated cash fed cattle prices, weaker wholesale beef values and likely month-end position squaring.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 50¢ lower, except for 2¢ higher in away-Dec.

Feeder Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 46¢ lower in four contracts to an average of 44¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light on moderate demand in the North through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Based on last established trade, FOB live prices are $2.50 to $5 lower than last week in Nebraska at $223-$226/cwt. and mostly $3-$5 lower in the western Corn Belt at $222-$224.

Dressed delivered prices in Nebraska are $10 lower at mostly $348 and $5-$10 lower in the western Corn Belt at $350-$360.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.72 lower Thursday afternoon at $367.28/cwt. Select was $3.62 lower at $351.63.

Grain and Soybean futures were mostly lower on Thursday.

Through late afternoon, and through the front four contracts, Corn futures were unchanged to fractionally lower.

Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were fractionally lower to 1¢ higher with support from chatter about Chinese demand.

Soybean futures were mostly 2¢ to 4¢ lower.

Cattle futures closed lower on Tuesday with profit taking and lower negotiated cash fed cattle prices.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $3.38 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $5.52 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light on light to moderate demand in the North through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Early dressed sales in Nebraska were $6-$8 lower at $350-$352/cwt. FOB live sales there last week were $228-$228.50.

In the western Corn Belt, early FOB live trades were mainly $3 lower at most $224 and dressed delivered trades were mostly $5 lower at mainly $360.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.22 lower Wednesday afternoon at $369.00/cwt. Select was $3.60 lower at $355.25.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed on Wednesday.

Through late afternoon, and through the front four contracts, Corn futures were fractionally higher to 2¢ higher with likely short covering.

Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 5¢ to 6¢ lower on less war premium on Black Sea exports.

Soybean futures were 6¢ to 7¢ lower with harvest pressure and strong yield results.

Cattle futures closed mixed on Tuesday with some potential profit taking and oversold conditions.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 48¢ lower, except for 12¢ higher in spot Oct.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 94¢ higher (7¢ to $2.70 higher), except for an average of 74¢ lower in the back to contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in the North through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were generally $1-$3 higher in Nebraska at 228-$228.50/cwt. and $3 higher in the western Corn Belt at mainly $227. Dressed delivered prices were mainly $3-$8 higher in Nebraska at mostly $358 and mostly $15 higher the western Corn Belt at mainly $365.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.78 higher Tuesday afternoon at $372.22/cwt. Select was $1.29 higher at $358.85.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower again Tuesday, with hangover pressure from declining Brazilian currency value and domestic harvest progress.

Through late afternoon, and through the front four contracts, Corn futures were 5¢ lower. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 7¢ to 9¢ lower. Soybean futures were 8¢ to 11¢ lower.

Cattle futures closed higher, but less than many would have expected, given last week’s stronger cash fed cattle prices and the friendly Cattle on Feed report.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 78¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.04 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in the North through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were generally $1-$3 higher in Nebraska at 228-$228.50/cwt. and $3 higher in the western Cron Belt at mainly $227. Dressed delivered prices were mainly $3-$8 higher in Nebraska at mostly $358 and mostly $15 higher in the western Corn Belt at mainly $365.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price was $2.87 higher at $227.06. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $8.27 higher at $360.79.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.65 higher Monday afternoon at $369.44/cwt. Select was $4.87 higher at $357.56.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Monday, led by Soybeans plunge on the increased competitiveness of Brazilian imports as the nation’s currency value declined.

Through late afternoon, and through the front four contracts, Soybean futures were mostly 13¢ to 15¢ lower. Corn futures were mostly 1¢ lower. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 6¢ to 7¢ lower.

Cattle futures closed mostly higher Friday, ahead of the monthly Cattle on Feed report which turned out to be market friendly (see below).

Live Cattle futures were an average of 28¢ higher, except for unchanged and 10¢ lower in two contracts. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.34 higher. Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.16 higher and Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $6.48 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in the North through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

The previous week, FOB live prices were $225-$227/cwt. in Nebraska and mainly $224 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $350-$355 in Nebraska and mainly $350 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.68 lower Friday afternoon at $365.79/cwt. Select was $2.28 higher at $352.69. Week to week on Friday, Choice boxed was $6.52 lower and Select was 36¢ lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 546,000 head was 7,000 head fewer than the previous week and 27,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 22.2 million head was 1.7 million fewer (-7.2%) than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 19.8 billion pounds was 1 billion pounds less (-5%) than the same time last year.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Friday.

Corn futures were mostly 3¢ to 4¢ lower with continued harvest pressure.

Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were mostly 1¢ to 3¢ lower.

Soybean futures were mostly 2¢ to 5¢ higher, buoyed by exports

Cattle futures softened Thursday on likely profit taking and weaker wholesale beef prices. Depending on the projections considered, analysts peg September placements about 8-9% less year over year with September marketings down about 7% for  an on-feed inventory Oct. 1 about even.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 52¢ lower except for 2¢ higher in near Dec. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.99 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in the North through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $225-$227/cwt. in Nebraska and mainly $224 in the western Cron Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $350-$355 in Nebraska and mainly $350 in the western Corn Belt.

The Texas Cattle Feeder Association reported its members trading fed steers at $228.50 and fed heifers at $226.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.12 lower Thursday afternoon at $369.47/cwt. Select was $4.93 lower at $350.41.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Thursday.

Through late afternoon, and through the front four contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower with pressure from harvest progress.

Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 7¢ to 9¢ lower with less Ukraine-Russia war premium.

Soybean futures were mostly 4¢ to 7¢ higher, helped by Chinese buying.

Cattle futures crawled higher Tuesday, supported by last week’s stronger negotiated cash fed cattle prices and optimism about further gains this week. Keep in mind that the monthly Cattle on Feed report is due out Friday.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.39 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.21 higher, except for 70¢ lower in the back contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in the North through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $225-$227/cwt. in Nebraska and mainly $224 in the western Cron Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $350-$355 in Nebraska and mainly $350 in the western Corn Belt.

The Texas Cattle Feeder Association reported its members trading fed steers at $228.50 and fed heifers at $226.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.72 higher Tuesday afternoon at $373.30/cwt. Select was $1.63 higher at $361.54.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower again Monday with continued harvest pressure and positive South American weather.

Through late afternoon, and through the front four contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 5¢ lower. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 7¢ to 9¢ lower. Soybean futures were 5¢ to 6¢ lower.

Cattle futures continued mostly higher on Monday, led by Feeder Cattle and supported by last week’s stronger negotiated cash fed cattle prices.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 22¢ higher, except for an average of 15¢ lower in the front three contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.43 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in the North through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $3-$5 higher in Nebraska at 225-$227/cwt. and mostly $4 higher in the western Cron Belt at mainly $224. Dressed delivered prices were mainly $5-$10 higher in Nebraska at $350-$355 at mostly $5 higher the western Corn Belt mainly $350.

The Texas Cattle Feeder Association reported its members trading fed steers $2.50 higher at $228.50 and fed heifers steady at $226.

Last week’s five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price was $4.05 higher at $220.14/cwt. The five-area direct weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $6.86 higher at $352.52.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 73¢ lower Monday afternoon at $371.58/cwt. Select was $6.86 higher at $359.91.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Monday with continued bearishness and technical pressure.

Through late afternoon, and through the front four contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 7¢ lower. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 4¢ lower. Soybean futures were 5¢ to 8¢ lower.

Cattle futures gained on Friday, helped by stronger cash fed cattle prices and continued weakness in Corn.

Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.46 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 73¢ higher, except for 5¢ lower in looming Nov.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on good demand in the North through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Based on the last established trade for the week, FOB live prices were mainly $5 higher in Nebraska at mostly $225/cwt. and mostly $2-$4 higher in the western Cron Belt at mainly $222-$224. Dressed delivered prices were mainly $5 higher at mostly $350.

The Texas Cattle Feeder Association reported its members trading fed steers $2.50 higher at $228.50 and fed heifers steady at $226.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.67 lower Friday afternoon at $372.31/cwt. Select was 43¢ higher at $353.05.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 553,000 head was 18,000 head more than the previous week but 13,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 21.6 million head was 1.7 million head fewer (-7.2%) than the same time last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 19.3 billion pounds was 1 billion pounds less (-5.1%).

Corn and Soybean futures were lower Friday with more harvest pressure.

Corn futures were mostly 2¢ to 4¢ lower. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 5¢ to 9¢ lower through Mar ‘28. Soybean futures were 1¢ to 3¢ lower through Aug ’27 and then mostly 1¢ higher.