A special summer episode of Cheap Talk: Hypersonic missiles and missile defense in Ukraine; signaling and the defense of Bakhmut; Ukraine’s path to NATO membership; alien spacecraft on earth; Apple’s Vision Pro announcement; diplomacy in virtual reality; military applications of augmented reality; and Marcus sympathizes with alien whistleblowers

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Further reading:
Phillips P. OBrien. 2023. “Weekend Update #31.” Phillips’s Newsletter Substack.

Leslie Kean and Ralph Blumenthal. 2023. “Intelligence Officials Say U.S. Has Retrieved Craft of Non-Human Origin.” The Debrief.

Apple’s Vision Pro

First impressions video: Marques Brownlee. 2023. “Apple Vision Pro Impressions!”

Amanda M. Buch, David M. Eagleman, and Logan Grosenick. 2022. “Engineering Diplomacy: How AI and Human Augmentation Could Remake the Art of Foreign Relations.” Science and Diplomacy.

“Sweden first to open embassy in Second Life.” 2007. Reuters.

Scott Padgett. ““The Virtual Sixth Sense” - Transforming Soldier Lethality Through Artificial Intelligence & Augmented Reality.” 2019. Small Wars Journal.

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Social identity theory and international relations; the behavior of rogue states; US nuclear assurance to South Korea; the risk from deepfakes and how to address them; the current state of sports diplomacy; and Marcus is a complicated individual

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Further Reading:
Peter Baker and David E. Sanger. “In Turn to Deterrence, Biden Vows ‘End’ of North Korean Regime if It Attacks.” The New York Times.

Jeffrey M. Kaplow. 2022. “State Compliance and the Track Record of International Security Institutions: Evidence from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime.” Journal of Global Security Studies 7(1).

Vipin Narang. 2017. “Why Kim Jong Un wouldn’t be irrational to use a nuclear bomb first.” The Washington Post.

Claire Parker and Ana Vanessa Herrero. 2022. “Colombia discovers two shipwrecks, releases new images of sunken treasure.” The Washington Post.

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The Discord intelligence leak; what we learned from the information; Egypt’s plan to sell weapons to Russia; China’s plan to sell weapons to Russia; US restraint and China’s involvement in the Ukraine conflict; how the leaker’s motives compare to other famous leaks; how the internet makes intelligence releases more damaging; assessing the intelligence impact of the leaks; the trade-off between intelligence sharing and the risk of leaks; and Marcus is a big lover of humans

Leave a comment or question at [email protected] or speakpipe.com/cheaptalk

Further reading:
Adam Taylor. 2023. “The biggest revelations from The Post’s document leaks investigation.” The Washington Post.

Matt Tait. 2023. “Pentagon Leaks: What’s the Damage?” PwnAllTheThings Substack.

Valerie Plame Wilson. 2008. Fair Game: How a Top CIA Agent Was Betrayed by Her Own Government. Simon & Schuster.

“Cobblestone treadmill patent would eliminate running on pesky smooth surface.” 2009. TechCrunch.

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Looking back on the Iraq war after 20 years (and 1 month); lingering uncertainty about the reasons for the US invasion; the role (or lack thereof) of groupthink in that decision; the intelligence community’s judgment that Iraq had WMD and was reconstituting its nuclear weapons program; why the intelligence community got it wrong; lessons learned for intelligence analysis; the long-term repercussions of the Iraq war; and Marcus puts his cards on the table

Ask a question or leave a comment at [email protected] or www.speakpipe.com/cheaptalk.

Further reading:
Max Fisher. 2023. “20 Years On, a Questions Lingers About Iraq: Why Did the U.S. Invade?” The New York Times.

US Director of Central Intelligence. 2002. “Iraq’s Continuing Programs for Weapons of Mass Destruction.” National Intelligence Estimate. National Security Archive.

“War With Iraq Is Not In America’s National Interest.” 2002. The New York Times.

“Cobblestone treadmill patent would eliminate running on pesky smooth surface.” 2009. TechCrunch.

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Nikki Haley’s experience at the United Nations; what it means to be a US ambassador; Russia’s statement about nuclear weapons in Belarus; the ICC’s arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin; credibility in international institutions; the power of international law on the margins; and Marcus considers future podcast guests

Send us comments or questions at [email protected] or leave us a voicemail.

Further reading:
Courtney Subramanian. 2023. “Garcetti sworn in as ambassador to India after two-year battle.” Los Angeles Times.

American Foreign Service Association. “Ambassador Tracker.”

Francesca Ebel. 2023. “West warns Putin against ‘dangerous’ nuclear rhetoric but downplays threat.” Washington Post.

Michael R. Gordon. 2023. “U.S. Stops Sharing Data on Nuclear Forces With Russia.” Wall Street Journal.

Amy Mackinnon, Christina Lu and Jack Detsch. 2023. “Putin Wanted by ICC Over Alleged War Crimes.” Foreign Policy.

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The TikTok situation escalates; Russia pulls a reverse TikTok; the first image of the state; what is a state, anyway; AI tools are lying to us; Xi goes to Moscow; Russia harasses a US drone; and Marcus believes states are disembodied people with feelings and emotions

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Further reading/watching:
Sara Morrison. 2023. “Is TikTok too big to ban?” Vox.com.

Reuters. 2023. “Kremlin tells officials to stop using iPhones – Kommersant newspaper.”

Video of Russian aircraft intercepting US drone over Black Sea.

Rose Gottemoeller. 2023. “The Role of U.S. Diplomacy in Countering Russia’s Nuclear Threats and Misbehavior.” Texas National Security Review 6(2).

Blackberry – Official Trailer

The latest AI tools:
ChatGPT (GPT-4 is available to “plus” users who pay for access)

Bing AI

Google’s Bard

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Russia’s international status and reputation after the invasion of Ukraine; TikTok and Huawei as threats to US national security; the status of Iran’s nuclear weapons development; and Marcus has too many distractions in his life

Send us feedback or ideas for future podcasts at [email protected] or leave us a voice message

Further reading/watching
Jonathan Renshon. 2017. Fighting for Status. Princeton University Press.
“Putin’s Missed Handshakes” video
@unclogging_drains on TikTok

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Russia bails on the New START arms control treaty; Putin and prospect theory; the short and long term effects of the treaty suspension; why we have arms control treaties in the first place; overlapping international agreements; taking stock of Russia’s invasion one year in; European security transformed; the relevance of nuclear risk and nuclear deterrence today; and Marcus embraces conspiracy theories

Send us feedback or ideas for future podcasts at [email protected] or leave us a voice message

Further listening:
On the nuclear taboo: Cheap Talk Podcast. 2020. “Outside the Bounds of Reasonable Behavior.” Season 1, Episode 3.

On international institutions: Cheap Talk Podcast. 2020. “Our Expectations Are Too High.” Season 1, Episode 4.

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We’re on Apple Podcasts and Spotify; an excellent book is on sale; the Last of Us is not a zombie show; China threatens a balloon response; we are seeing more flying objects; risk reduction and diplomacy between the United States and China; President Biden visits Kyiv; and Marcus explains the role of aliens in political science theory

What should we talk about in future episodes? Let us know at https://www.speakpipe.com/cheaptalk or [email protected].

Further reading:
Now on sale! Signing Away the Bomb, by Jeffrey M. Kaplow (https://www.amazon.com/Signing-Away-Bomb-Surprising-Nonproliferation/dp/1009216732)

Zack Sharf. 2023. ‘The Last of Us’ Crew Was ‘Banned’ From Saying Zombie on Set: ‘We Weren’t Allowed to Say the Z Word.’ Variety. (https://variety.com/2023/tv/news/the-last-of-us-crew-banned-saying-zombie-set-1235522423/)

Alexander Wendt and Raymond Duvall. 2008. “Sovereignty and the UFO.” Political Theory 36(4): 607–633. (https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0090591708317902)

Cheap Talk’s very special balloon-themed episode: China’s spy balloon; the effect on diplomacy when spying becomes public; the intelligence value of spy balloons; why the US failed to deploy its giant balloon net; the risk of balloon-related escalation; the trajectory of the US-China relationship; and Marcus explains his criteria for riding in flying objects

Recommended Valentine's Day gifts for loved ones or enemies:

Signing Away the Bomb, by Jeffrey M. Kaplow (https://www.amazon.com/Signing-Away-Bomb-Surprising-Nonproliferation/dp/1009216732)

Face-to-Face Diplomacy, by Marcus Holmes (https://www.amazon.com/Face-Face-Diplomacy-Marcus-Holmes-ebook/dp/B07952GT58/)

Give us feedback or ask a question for a future podcast at https://www.speakpipe.com/cheaptalk