The rate at which China is able to advance towards TAI is a crucial consideration in for many policy questions. My current take is that, without significant political reforms which seem very unlikely while Xi is alive (although considerably more likely after his death,) it's very unlikely that China will be able to mount a meaningful challenge to AI firms in US and allies in the race for TAI. I don’t think it requires democratic reforms are required to China to be competitive with the US and allies, but I do think rule of law reforms are likely to be required.

The first post is going to be me forecasting Chinese growth on the theory that, if China reaches rich country status, it's likely that it will be able to compete with the US and allies for leadership in AI. I’ll write a second post looking at Chinese AI [...]

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