We unpack our optimistic 1H26 crypto market outlook anchored on global liquidity support and rate-cut expectations, though energy prices and geopolitics represent potential tail risks. This may set the stage for momentum-led crypto performance and disciplined positioning. The discussion also covers the rise of tokenization—from tokenized equities to equity perps and higher collateral efficiency—and stablecoins moving beyond trading into payments and payrolls.  Finally, the episode explores the social and market flywheel around prediction markets, the evolving privacy narrative, and a pragmatic take on the fundamentals vs. technicals debate using recent DeFi examples.

Speakers:
David Duong, CFA - Global Head of Investment Research (X: DavidDuong)
Colin Basco - Research Associate (X: colin_basco)

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In this year-end episode, our Coinbase Research team wraps up 2025 by grading their crypto market predictions from the previous year and discussing key themes for 2026. The hosts score their prior year outlook on macro trends, tokenization, and the resurgence of DeFi/DEX volumes. Find out which calls earned high marks and where projections were “overly optimistic.” They then look ahead and share their optimism for a recovery in the first half, supported by the ongoing rate cutting cycle; the rise of prediction markets; the continued explosion in crypto derivatives; the endgame for application-specific chains; and the path for stablecoin growth in the year ahead.

Speakers:
David Duong, CFA - Global Head of Investment Research (X: DavidDuong)
Colin Basco - Research Associate (X: colin_basco)

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Crypto racked up some wins this week with Vanguard and Bank of America opening the door for their clients to trade the asset class, though many still wonder why BTC isn’t trading substantively higher given all the good news. Our Head of Research, David Duong, remains constructive due to favorable macro conditions but acknowledges that it’s hard to identify the marginal buyer at the moment. That said, he still thinks DATs are a meaningful source of demand. Meanwhile, the Fed decision is coming and a rate cut seems to be a lock. But what’s the consensus sentiment on the board? How will they interpret recent inflation trends? Fear of hawkish messaging seems to be pervasive. Separately, David and Colin debate the merits of trying to trade the potential nomination of Kevin Hassett to Fed Chair. Finally, we cover Ethereum’s latest upgrade and the implications for ETH's price.

Speakers:
David Duong, CFA - Global Head of Investment Research (X: Dav1dDuong)
Colin Basco - Research Associate (X: colin_basco)
 

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In this episode, Coinbase Research dissects the post-Thanksgiving crypto landscape, marked by low liquidity and high volatility. We debate a “trend variant” approach to dollar cost averaging (DCA), explore the implications of the Fed ending quantitative tightening, and the market implications of a highly anticipated December Fed rate cut—stressing that the commentary’s tone will matter more than most meetings. The sell off from concerns over a Bank of Japan hike (leading to an unwind of JPY carry trades) seems to be over for now. We also examine the unsettling trend of AI-driven white-collar layoffs and its effect on the ‘K-shaped economy’. Finally, we dive into bitcoin’s key onchain and technical signals, from long-term holder distribution and bearish options positioning to the critical battle to reclaim the 50-day moving average and the $98K-100K support zone.

Speakers:
David Duong, CFA - Global Head of Investment Research (X: Dav1dDuong)
Colin Basco - Research Associate (X: colin_basco)

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Crypto markets have gone through a broad repricing as doubts about AI ROI, the unwind of the momentum trade, and renewed uncertainty around the December FOMC meeting collide. We unpack why this macro mix matters more than usual: a prolonged government shutdown has jeopardized October 2025 releases, adding to uncertainty about what comes next. That said, we think the signal from small business earnings still points to cuts. But the longer-time-frame trend reduces the room for speculation, making it hard to pick strong altcoin names. Should investors buy/hold/sell here? Is this the capitulation we were waiting for, or will there be a further purge? Tune in to hear our latest thoughts.

Speakers:

David Duong, CFA - Global Head of Investment Research

Colin Basco - Research Associate

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This episode unpacks a fragile week in crypto markets, discussing why reactive positioning can beat buying dips in downtrends, and what November’s liquidity signals could mean for a potential year‑end turn. We map the landscape of softening demand—from corporate treasuries to ETF outflows—alongside key technical zones that now define the range, and what renewed options hedging is signaling about downside risk and rebound potential.  We also talk about how shifting FOMC odds are feeding risk sentiment, and why the much‑debated AI trade—between massive capex and slower monetization—matters for crypto markets and sector rotation.

Speakers:
David Duong, CFA - Global Head of Investment Research
Georg Toropov - Senior CES Sales Trader
Colin Basco - Research Associate

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Starting today, all Coinbase One US subscribers will have early access to Coinbase Research. If you’re a CB1 subscriber, check your inbox now. 

In this episode, we cover some of the topics from our latest Monthly Outlook. We also wade into the enterprise L1 debate following the announcement that long-time Ethereum Foundation researcher Dankrad Feist is joining Tempo — a new L1 focused on payments and stablecoins. We also walk through the latest Charting Crypto report where we unpack new investor survey signals, dig into our Global M2 Money Supply Index, and discuss the role of digital asset treasuries as a force for structural demand across BTC and ETH.

Speakers:
David Duong, CFA - Global Head of Investment Research
Ben Rodriguez - Senior Protocol Specialist
Colin Basco - Research Associate

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In this episode, we dig into whether there’s more downside ahead or if the worst is now behind us following the leverage flush on October 10. We discuss how elevated altcoin open interest set up cascading liquidations and why the reset cleans up positioning but doesn’t guarantee direction. Flows remain mixed with limited BTC dip‑buying, a concentrated ETH bid, and some ETF outflows—so we prefer reactive over anticipatory positioning until breadth improves. Finally, a growing privacy theme centers on Zcash, with momentum holding even through the drawdown. Into next week, a 25bps Fed cut is the base case, though a dovish Beige Book is increasing the odds of the board front loading the easing cycle into early next year.

Speakers:
David Duong, CFA - Global Head of Investment Research
Georg Toropov - Senior CES Sales Trader
Colin Basco - Research Associate

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The phrase “Black Friday” now carries a very different connotation for crypto market participants following Friday’s flash crash that saw $19B in leveraged positions wiped out. Ostensibly, the catalyst for the move was the announcement of 100% tariffs and new export controls on China (subsequently walked back), but the unprecedented scale of the move suggests many moving parts to the story. We break down the main vectors contributing to the sell off, including the market’s massive liquidity drain, the collateral valuation mechanics of certain crypto-trading platforms, and the role that auto-deleveraging mechanisms played. We also discuss the lessons being learned in the aftermath and what this means for both retail and institutional investors going forward.

Speakers:
David Duong, CFA - Global Head of Investment Research
Joshua Pak - Senior CES Sales Trader
Colin Basco - Research Associate

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Bitcoin pushed past $125,000 this week as US spot ETFs saw massive inflows, and corporate treasuries added to their reserves. With the US government shutdown, what data should we be looking at for markets? 

Meanwhile, SWIFT’s recent blockchain announcement suggests traditional finance is rapidly adapting to crypto realities, while Stripe’s revolutionary “Open Issuance” platform democratizes stablecoin creation with backing from BlackRock and Fidelity. 

In other topics, are you sick of hearing about gold? Too bad because we talk about it. On the regulatory side, the CFTC launched its Tokenized Collateral and Stablecoins Initiative as regulators embrace crypto derivatives, and the SEC has been making headlines with its no-action letters and new fast-track standards for crypto ETF listings. This episode is perfect for institutional investors, crypto researchers, DeFi builders, and anyone tracking the intersection of traditional finance and digital assets.

Speakers:
David Duong, CFA - Global Head of Investment Research
Colin Basco - Research Associate

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