LessWrong (30+ Karma)

“Concrete benefits of making predictions” by Jonny Spicer, Sage Future


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Your mind is a prediction machine, constantly trying to anticipate the world around you and altering its forecasts based on new information. It's always doing this as a background process. But what would happen if you deliberately trained this skill? Could you get better at predicting your projects, your life, and the future?

Sadly, I don’t have a crystal ball, but I have found trying to see the future valuable. I can't be certain about what will happen, but by deliberately practising the skill of prediction, I can create feedback loops that allow me to better anticipate what the future will bring. This has indeed helped me become happier, better to interact with, and more impactful.

Concretely, making probabilistic predictions has helped me:

  • Improve my productivity
  • Make better decisions about my career and living situation
  • Set and make progress towards my goals
  • Prioritise work tasks
  • Communicate project timelines [...]

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Outline:

(01:34) Which questions are worth asking?

(10:53) How to track your predictions

The original text contained 20 images which were described by AI.

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First published:

October 17th, 2024

Source:

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WeLupp3b8FxzAcq3F/concrete-benefits-of-making-predictions

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Images from the article:

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