Confluence Podcasts

In this episode, members of the Confluence Macroeconomic Team sit down with Phil Adler to assess the geopolitical outlook for 2025. Six big picture trends that are guideposts for Confluence's investment recommendations are discussed including American hegemony, China's economic growth, and the continuing problems in the Middle East. 

When one looks at the total world of investing, it makes sense that a high amount held in money market funds might subtract from total assets invested in stocks, and stock valuations might shrink as a result. But, clearly, that equation has not been working lately. Bill O'Grady, Advisory Director of Market Strategy at Confluence, discusses what this might portend for the stock market. 

 How did the decisive November election results impact the bond market? Contrary to expectations, voters rendered a quick and clear outcome. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady discusses the post-election environment for bonds.

Important developments in the Ukraine war this year include Ukraine's invasion of the Kursk region of Russia. Another is the subject of this week's discussion:  North Korea's agreement to send troops to Russia to help in its war effort. Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to explain why investors should take notice.

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the fourth quarter of 2024, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast to recap the rationale for this quarter's changes is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings.

There are several ways we could approach the subject of tariffs - a major topic of discussion in the recent US election season. Tariffs can be seen as both a geopolitical and economic tool. Geopolitical because they could penalize imports from our main rival China, and economic because tariffs might boost US domestic industries that are currently threatened by cheap imports. However, tariffs also have been described as inflation boosters and a tax on the American consumer. Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to sort out the arguments and discuss the investment implications of increased tariffs. 

We're talking big numbers today, US national debt numbers. Back in July, the Treasury department reported that our national debt exceeded $35 trillion for the first time, and at the current pace will top $56 trillion by 2034. It's hard to get your mind around numbers like these, and it's no wonder many commentators are sounding the alarm. Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to take us on a deeper dive into our debt situation with the goal of adding some perspective.

The inflation adjustment for 2025 Social Security benefits has been announced, but do the financial markets even care? Confluence Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to discuss the impact on markets and portfolios.

National security agendas might never be the same after pagers and walkie-talkies mysteriously exploded in the hands of Hezbollah militants about a month ago. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady and Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez explore how this groundbreaking attack will likely lead to costly changes in global supply chains and how investment strategies may face a reckoning as well.

Does the recent un-inversion of the yield curve create an opportunity on the long end for bond investors? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to take a look.