Confluence Podcasts

As election day nears, this week's report explores foreign policy differences between the two US presidential candidates, which could have investment implications. Confluence Associate Market Strategists Daniel Ortwerth and Thomas Wash discuss those differences and what they could mean for investors.

With the presidential election coming up, we will consider a timely topic this week: Does the stock market prefer one of the two major political parties? Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to take us on a trip through recent history. 

For investors, it can be pretty easy to overreact to day-to-day market moving events. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss how a long-term roadmap can help investors resist emotional decisions, and why recognizing global megatrends is a key part of the process at Confluence.

Large cap stocks aren't what they used to be. Confluence Investment Management Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss why investors who are looking for dividends may need to refocus.

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the third quarter of 2024, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings, takes listeners through the investment team's decisions. 

Is a strong US dollar a good or bad thing for investors? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discusses prospects for the dollar in a fracturing world and explains the process the Confluence macro team uses to measure the strength of the US dollar.

One of the challenges for fixed income investors is figuring out what part of the yield curve is most attractive and carries the least risk at any particular time. Some market observers who worry about overstimulation of the economy are pointing an accusatory finger at the US Treasury. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins the podcast to unravel the various points of view and explain the debate over whether the Fed and Treasury should coordinate their policies.

As the Federal Reserve delayed interest rate cuts this year, signs of impatience have become more evident. For one thing, we've read and heard opinions in recent months questioning the current working relationship between the Fed and the federal government known as central bank independence. The bottom line seems to be that the Fed might be more responsive to the desires of the people if the executive branch exerted more influence. Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash discusses the price we pay for central bank independence and takeaways for investors.

China's effort to control the South China Sea and push back against the Philippines is at the top of Confluence's list of potentially game-changing geopolitical events for the rest of the year.  In this episode, Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth makes the case that understanding the motivations of Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. may help investors prepare for a range of outcomes. 

A traditional formula to predict gold prices no longer seems to work. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady discusses why investors should take notice.