Confluence Podcasts

The conflict in the Middle East has plenty of investment implications. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez examines how the current fighting might play out and what it means for the markets.

Widely accepted rules that have for many years defined the behavior of long-term bonds might be changing. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins us today to suggest why savvy investors might want to revisit some of these time-worn formulas.

As investors, we can sometimes be sidetracked by news events that seem huge at the time they happen. Many times we can make wiser decisions by stepping back to survey the bigger picture. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins us today to help us do just that.

Financial markets can be extremely sensitive to the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. Perhaps not so much what the Fed has done, but what it might do. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady examines how the changing composition of the Federal Open Market Committee, which votes on monetary policy, may offer some clues about its future actions.

Once again, oil is being wielded as a weapon, not only to boost revenue for producers, but also to achieve geopolitical goals. Where does it go from here? Can we see an end to this particular cycle of production cuts and rising prices? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady addresses these questions.

When we began the year, there was a general consensus that a recession was near. So far, the economy appears to have avoided a downturn. Over the past few months, several Confluence Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly reports have covered various aspects regarding why that is, and this week Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins the podcast to recap these reports and discuss any changes that have emerged since they were written. But first, Bill answers the question, "Why is recession forecasting so difficult?"

This week's episode examines the apparent assassination of Yevgeny Prigozhin, a member of Putin's inner circle and head of the Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary operation. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses the rumors surrounding Prigozhin's demise, including the likely culprits and their potential motives, and the broader ramifications of this situation.

In recent quarters, investors have focused heavily on issues such as consumer price inflation, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.  Now, however, rising fiscal deficits and congressional bickering over the federal debt have brought the attention back to fiscal policy. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins the podcast to discuss the government's recent fiscal trends and what that means for the economy and investing going forward.

Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez sits down with Phil Adler to discuss Great Power competition and the economics of national defense. In the absence of Great Power competition, defense spending is usually concentrated on defense companies. However, under conditions of Great Power competition, a “whole-of-economy” approach to national defense tends to evolve. Civilian companies become more involved in the defense effort, and societies need to make the “guns and butter” tradeoffs. Patrick and Phil discuss how the current iteration of national defense spending will likely be different than what was seen during the Cold War.  

A U.S. recession due to higher interest rates no longer seems imminent as the rate of inflation has been falling and the unemployment rate is near a 60-year low. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins the podcast to discuss one of the main reasons we have avoided a recession so far – the tight labor market – and whether we can expect labor conditions to remain tight in the months ahead.