Confluence Podcasts

Fixation on headline economic numbers can lead to inaccurate conclusions. A recent example is the performance of major stock indexes, which it turns out has been greatly influenced lately by a very small number of stocks. Overreliance on headline numbers can also be costly for investors. Confluence Staff Economist Thomas Wash joins us today to dig deeper into one of our favorite headline numbers: the unemployment rate. What is it really telling us?

In Confluence's Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook, we recognize China's youth unemployment and China's debt problem as two major issues for investors to keep tabs on in the months ahead. But there's one significant negative trend in China which may be an underlying cause of many other problems the country faces and could be beyond its ability to solve. In this episode, Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discusses the causes and impact of China's collapsing population. 

Are higher interest rates bearish for risk assets? This may seem to be an easy question, but perhaps the answer is not so simple. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins the podcast to broaden our perspective.

Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O’Grady, Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, and Staff Economist Thomas Wash discuss the firm’s mid-year geopolitical update. This edition’s theme is “Welcome to the Polycrisis.” Confluence’s macro team lays out the large number of geopolitical concerns that could affect markets for the rest of 2023. This podcast accompanies the in-depth Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report also published on July 10, 2023.

Economic data lately can seem unusually confusing. Even though inflation has raised the cost of living significantly compared to two years ago, the economy continues to grow and the unemployment rate remains low even as some big companies announce job cuts. And while economic indicators point to a slowdown in the months ahead, the stock market doesn't seem to believe it. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins the podcast to talk about one data point that appears to be showing very strong numbers: private nonresidential construction.

We may be getting a glimpse of what artificial intelligence (AI) can do and the tasks it can perform...but we may be slower to understand exactly HOW it does so. Becoming familiar, at least on a basic level, of the HOW might help us understand AI's potential and limitations and might even guide us toward proper investment decisions.

The S&P 500 has performed very well in 2023, but market internals paint a less healthy picture. Confluence Staff Economist Thomas Wash joins us to discuss the stock market's uneven performance so far this year and what this may portend.

For many years now, the need for oil has been a primary driver of foreign policy, not just for the U.S. but for nations around the world. For the U.S., a dominant dollar has been a key tool in the past to assure an adequate supply of oil, but today the energy landscape is changing. To accompany the Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report published on June 12, 2023, Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins the podcast to discuss how the U.S. dollar policy seems to be changing as well and possible investment implications.

Underinvesting can have serious long-term consequences, and in the U.S., government underinvestment in one key area is a worrisome trend. Investors might be surprised by just how much government spending contributes to overall GDP. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez takes a look at the latest numbers. 

A new national security law in China is fresh evidence that the global investment environment is changing. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses how investors can expect this to play out and the potential winners and losers.