Confluence Podcasts

By Confluence Investment ManagementBusiness Investing

Confluence Podcasts episodes

March 13, 2023 Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - The Importance of the Policy Mix (3/13/2023)
Investors, be aware: interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve may not be enough, on their own, to subdue inflation. The Fed might need some help. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discusses other key inflation battlefronts that deserve our attention.
14 min
March 08, 2023 Confluence of Ideas - Reflections on Inflation
Bill O’Grady, Confluence’s Chief Market Strategist, sits down with Phil Adler to discuss the subtleties of inflation, specifically, an examination of inflation as the rate of change in a price index and how investors, consumers, and firms can be “fooled” into accepting modest rises in inflation that still reflect weaker purchasing power. This podcast expands upon a recent Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly report published on February 13, 2023.
15 min
March 06, 2023 Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Enter the Petroyuan (3/6/2023)
Confluence has been suggesting for some time now that the world is in the process of fracturing into two competing economic and geopolitical blocs, one led by China and the other by the US. If this is true, will the dollar remain the world's reserve currency, and should we be alarmed if it doesn't? Should our long-term investment strategy change as a result? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses these questions along with a recent development that is the catalyst for this conversation on the dollar's future.
14 min
February 27, 2023 Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - Federal Reserve Policymakers in 2023: Hawks or Doves? (2/27/2023)
Any decision by the FOMC to pause or reverse its current journey toward higher interest rates could trigger a sharp rally in stocks. The question investors want to know is, when? The answer probably depends on a number of factors, including how the Fed measures inflation and the timing/severity of any recession. Confluence spends a lot of time studying these issues and one conclusion the firm has arrived at is that the Fed may be more dovish than the market realizes. In this episode, Staff Economist Thomas Wash explores that idea and weighs possible outcomes for investors.
12 min
February 21, 2023 Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Chip War (2/21/2023)
Computers. Banking. Healthcare. Transportation. These are only a few of the industries and social services which rely these days on semiconductors. Confluence Staff Economist Thomas Wash discusses their importance, how the need to secure an adequate supply drives many US foreign policy decisions and can shape geopolitical events, and where investment opportunities might exist.
9 min
February 03, 2023 Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - Secular Trends In Bond Yields (2/3/2023)
Believing that the secular downtrend in long-term Treasury yields is ending, Confluence has shortened its recommended duration in its fixed income allocations. To accompany the Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly report published on January 30, 2023, Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins the podcast to discuss why the firm has reached this conclusion about the fixed income markets.
12 min
February 01, 2023 Confluence of Ideas - The 2023 Outlook
Confluence's 2023 economic and market forecast leaves no doubt that this will be a recession year. In our published report from December, we discuss data that support this hypothesis and how investors can navigate what's shaping up to be a volatile period in the market. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady, co-author of the report, joins the podcast to examine some of its key points.
15 min
January 27, 2023 Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The New German Problem (1/27/2023)
Germany's recent reluctance to provide military equipment to Ukraine could be another sign that the country is uncomfortable with aligning itself too closely to the U.S. and Western allies. Confluence Staff Economist Thomas Wash discusses why maintaining a working relationship with Russia and China seems to be so important to Germany and how this may eventually play out geopolitically and in the investment world.
8 min
January 20, 2023 Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - The Master of Surprise (1/20/2023)
While many of the world's central banks have been pushing up interest rates to dampen inflation, the Bank of Japan has steadfastly refused to follow the crowd. But, there are signs that this behavior may be changing. Confluence Staff Economist Thomas Wash explains why and how it may impact investors.
7 min
January 17, 2023 Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – How China Will Manage Its Evolving Geopolitical Bloc (1/17/2023)
As the world divides into two main economic and geopolitical camps, one led by the U.S. and the other by China, the dollar's status as the world's dominant currency could eventually be challenged. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discusses how the contrasting management styles of these two major economic blocs might impact and perhaps create opportunities for investors. [This week's episode coincides with our Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report published on January 9, 2023.]
15 min

About Confluence Podcasts

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Podcasts from Confluence Investment Management LLC, featuring the periodic Confluence of Ideas series, two bi-weekly series: the Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly and the Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report (new…