Confluence Podcasts

Confluence’s Chief Market Strategist Bill O’Grady and Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discuss their geopolitical outlook for 2023. Topics include the big picture of the post-Cold War deglobalization, China’s management of its emerging bloc, and the “race for space,” among other issues.

We can expect another interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve coming up soon, and a majority of market analysts agree it wont be the last one in this series as the Fed focuses on reducing inflation. There are already some signs that the economy is beginning to slow because of these rate hikes, but what we don't know is when the slowdown might turn into a recession, how deep that recession might be, and when the Fed might eventually reverse policy –as investors we'd certainly like to know. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses where we can look to try to find answers to these questions.

Thomas Wash, Confluence Staff Economist, joins host Phil Adler in discussing the firm’s most recent Business Cycle Report. This report details the Confluence Diffusion Index, an indicator of the business cycle. In this podcast, Phil and Thomas discuss the construction of the index and what it is signaling about the economy.

The U.S. Dollar Index reached a 20-year high in September and current conditions appear to favor continued strength in the greenback against foreign currencies. Confluence Staff Economist Thomas Wash discusses what's behind the dollar's strength and the consequences for investors.

The latest Communist Party Congress in China provides fresh evidence that investors can no longer rely on the Chinese marketplace to boost the profits of American companies and bolster the U.S. stock market. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins the podcast to analyze just what happened at this recent event and what it might mean for investors.

The Social Security cost of living adjustment for next year is the biggest increase in 40 years, at +8.7%. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins the podcast to discuss how this announcement affects the economy and investments.

A deglobalized world in the months and years ahead will probably equate to increasing impediments to global trade, along with rising international tensions and higher inflation. Regular listeners will know that Confluence expects that deglobalization will be a long-term backdrop for investment strategy. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses how he defines deglobalization, why he expects this trend to remain so powerful, and how this expectation demands a changing framework for investments.

Where are bond yields headed? And what does this mean for bond investors? The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury has been rising as the Fed increases rates, but it is not in line with Confluence's current estimates. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins the podcast this week to help us make sense of the current bond market.

The emergence of right-wing leaders in Great Britain and Italy adds a new layer of volatility and uncertainty to financial markets in Europe and around the world. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez offers analysis and advice for investors. While there are notable differences between these separate political events, Patrick identifies the key similarities and discusses where these events fit into Confluence's broader outlook for a more divided world.

Why is gold performance underwhelming in the face of high inflation? We're hearing this question from investors, so Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady takes a look at gold this week and adds some color to the research discussed in our associated written report.