Confluence Podcasts

If one keeps up with the news, they will hear reports of widening income and wealth inequality in the U.S. According to the Census Bureau, in 2020, the top 20% of the U.S. population earned over half of all U.S. income, and the top 5% earned nearly a quarter of all income. This week's geopolitical report looks at how the pandemic has affected inequality in America. Confluence Market Strategy Intern Natalia Fields discusses how one measures income and wealth inequality and how current trends might influence investment strategy.

We've heard a lot about the challenges for the U.S. Federal Reserve as it tries to strike a balance between sustaining economic growth and battling inflation. The European Central Bank is also engaged in a challenging balancing act, trying to keep sovereign bond yields among its country members in line with each other as the ECB prepares to raise interest rates for the first time in over a decade. Staff Economist Thomas Wash discusses this challenge for the ECB and the implications for investors.

Following the Fed's decision to raise interest rates, Federal Reserve Chair Powell stated that the Fed's goal is to bring about 2% inflation while keeping unemployment down. But, achieving the first goal will almost certainly mean a weakening labor market. How do you sell the necessity of a weakening labor market to the public? The Fed appears to have a strategy. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins the podcast to discuss.

It's time for the Confluence Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook: a look at world events likely to drive markets for the rest of the year and how investments might be aligned to accommodate the dominant trends. Confluence's market strategists identify seven major events and list the short-, medium-, and long-term impacts of each.

The homebuilder sector is no longer overweight in the Confluence Asset Allocation strategies for stocks. Patrick Fearon-Hernandez explains the recent downgrade of the sector and the various forces driving the housing industry as a whole.

In Confluence's geopolitical report from May 9, 2022, we projected a world devolving into two major economic and political blocs: U.S.-led and China-led. In many ways, this process has already begun and the Ukraine war is serving as an accelerant. Countries within the China-led bloc are likely to be poor and more populous but they do include many major commodity producers, which is our focus today. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins the podcast to look at various resources and identify potentially significant problem areas for the U.S.-led bloc and some action steps for investors.

As we read various comments from Federal Reserve officials, it appears the Fed is making no bones about it: the drive to bring down inflation by raising interest rates will result in some financial pain. We can't help but wonder how much financial pain for consumers will the Fed tolerate? And if the pain becomes too bad, will the Fed be able to manage it? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses these questions and the challenge for investors.

Because of the Ukraine war, North Korea may have attracted less geopolitical scrutiny lately but its nuclear ambitions remain strong. Confluence Staff Economist Thomas Wash joins the podcast to discuss why North Korea continues to deserve the attention of investors. What is Kim Jong-un trying to accomplish with his periodic nuclear saber-rattling?

The Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates earlier this month may have been widely expected but the financial markets' reaction up to this point has still been highly volatile. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins the podcast to talk about the longer-term implications for investors.

A world with at least two sharply divided political and economic groupings seems more and more likely as globalization retreats in the face of new trade, immigration, and political barriers, and the Ukraine war appears to be accelerating the process. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discusses what this new world might look like and what investors should watch for, including findings of a study conducted by Confluence that tries to determine the countries that may end up in each group -- either the group dominated by the U.S. or the one dominated by China.