Confluence Podcasts

Confluence's published geopolitical report this week looks at what appears to be an unusual economic experiment going on in Turkey: President Erdogan is refusing to allow the central bank to raise interest rates to contain rapidly rising inflation, meanwhile the Turkish currency, the lira, has been plummeting in value. Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady gives his analysis of Turkey's unorthodox response to inflation.

The shape of the U.S. economy is dominated these days by what appear to be pandemic-related distortions. Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses how we got to where we are, what can be done about it, and where we might find the most bang right now for our investment dollars.

The latest geopolitical report from Confluence addressed some of the key questions regarding Ukraine, including the possible impact on investments. Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady and Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez join today's episode to explore possible long-term ramifications stemming from the crisis (understanding that current events are fast-moving and headlines may have changed since the recording of this episode).

Recent volatility in financial markets and persistent geopolitical risks create an opportunity for a fresh look at gold prices. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses gold prices and whether our short-term outlook has changed.

While the West has been focused on the Russian threat to invade Ukraine and expand its sphere of influence there, recent developments in another former Soviet republic, Kazakhstan, have also appeared to increase Russian influence and have important implications for world energy prices. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins today with some analysis on the situation.

Will consumers keep consuming enough to sustain economic growth if interest rates rise? The answer might begin to emerge as we explore a separate question in today's discussion with Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady: what exactly drives consumption? Is it a rise in real income or is it an increase in the "wealth effect"?

Chief Market Strategist Bill O’Grady joins host Phil Adler to explore the highlights from Confluence Investment Management’s “2022 Outlook: The Year of Fat Tails.” The focus of the discussion is on policy expectations and potential risks for this year.

We’ve written extensively about the worsening geopolitical tensions between the United States and China, which have already affected investors. In our "2022 Geopolitical Outlook" published in December, we identified China as the #1 geopolitical issue to impact financial markets and investment policy for the foreseeable future. In the inaugural episode of Confluence's new Geopolitical Podcast series, Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discusses the challenges and potential outcomes created by the present confrontational relationship between the U.S. and China.

When will the Federal Reserve begin a much-anticipated series of rate hikes in order to tame inflation? Many, if not most, market analysts are predicting more than one rate hike and perhaps as many as four in 2022, but Confluence goes against the grain on this issue. Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady explains why the Fed may delay rate hikes until 2023.

What's causing it and should we be worried? Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez takes a look at the flattening bond yield curve and explains how inflation and Fed rate hike expectations have affected it.