Confluence Podcasts

Bill O’Grady, Chief Market Strategist, Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, and Thomas Wash, Staff Economist, discuss the geopolitical problems that could affect regional stability with the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. Risks to Iran, India, China, Russia, and the “stans” are discussed, including the potential for a refugee crisis that might spread beyond the region.

The emergence of the COVID-19 variant, Omicron, appears to have changed inflation expectations at the Fed and gave financial markets quite a jolt as well when the news came out. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses what may be the reasoning behind Chair Powell's change of heart and the possible impact on investors.

As inflation heats up, will gold prices do the same? Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady gives an update on the price of gold.

President Biden has some open positions to fill on the Federal Reserve Board, and the process bears close watching as the market anticipates future decisions on interest rates. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses how the policy tilt of the Fed could change based not only on who is chosen, but also the speed at which positions are filled.

Where are bond yields headed? An index that may be little-known among many investors, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index, might provide some valuable clues. Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez explains what this index measures and how it's proving to be a fairly accurate predictor of future bond yields.

Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady is here to discuss the market's influence on the Fed. Can we, with any confidence, look to the performance of financial markets for clues as to when the Federal Reserve will move on interest rates? Isn't the Fed supposed to prioritize inflation and employment as factors in its decision-making rather than rescuing the markets?

Raising the federal debt limit has reemerged this fall as a political issue with the potential to impact the financial markets. Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses the current standoff over the debt limit and the investment implications.

Social security recipients will be getting a raise next year: cost of living adjustment (COLA) announced by the federal government is 5.9%. Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discusses how the social security COLA impacts the economy and how it compares to other years.

The pandemic has shown that globalization is ill-suited to deal with global supply shocks. In this week's episode, Staff Economist Thomas Wash elaborates on the supply chain breakdown and explores the impact on inflation and the dilemma it poses for the Federal Reserve.

Has Bitcoin become a substitute for gold, and is there a fit for Bitcoin within a risk-sensitive investment portfolio? Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez addresses these questions by taking a statistical approach.