Confluence Podcasts

How bad was the jobs report? Thomas Wash, Staff Economist, looks at the January jobs report from the U.S. Labor Department, which generated lots of worried comments in the media.

Is the Fed facing the Tinbergen problem? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, looks at a challenge shaping up for the Federal Reserve known to economists as the Tinbergen problem--whether encouraging employment by keeping interest rates low might contribute to encouraging risky investment that could lead to a stock market bubble.

In mid-December, we published our geopolitical outlook for 2021. In this podcast episode, Phil Adler, our host, interviews Bill O’Grady and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez as they examine the five areas of concern discussed in the report. These issues are the return of the establishment, the anti-China alliance project, the Middle East, North Korea, and the return of inflation. In addition, we talk about the factors that failed to make the cut for the written report, such as Russia, the pandemic, and climate change.

What is the situation in housing? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, looks at the housing sector & the current state of housing in the U.S.

What is the outlook for inflation? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, discusses inflation expectations and what measures Confluence relies on when considering inflation.

What will be Joe Biden's focus in his first term? Thomas Wash, Staff Economist, examines what economic statistics suggest might, or should, be the focus of an economic recovery plan as the Biden administration takes office.

What is the impact of currency debasement? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, looks at the rare policy event of currency debasement.

What is the relationship between retail money market levels and equities? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, looks at the current level of assets held in retail money market funds and what that might mean for the stock market.

Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, explores the outlook for gold prices.

How far will long-term Treasury rates rise? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, looks at interest rates through the prism of long-term Treasury rates.