Confluence Podcasts

What is the impact of household debt service on discretionary income? Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, looks at how debt levels are impacting consumers' ability to spend and keep the economy afloat.

Is the additional unemployment insurance reducing employment? Thomas Wash, Staff Economist, explores how the federal government's additional weekly benefit has affected unemployment.

Although the dollar remains the global reserve currency, there is widespread dissatisfaction with the role. On the domestic front, the dollar’s role has been positive for financial services and retailers, but it has been a persistent negative factor for import-competing industries and their workers. Foreign nations are increasingly uncomfortable with the U.S. weaponization of the dollar through financial sanctions. The decision by the EU to create a mutualized bond, a debt instrument backed by the full faith and credit of all the member states of the EU, creates a competing instrument for the U.S. Treasury. If debt mutualization continues to expand, the euro will become an attractive reserve currency to foreign reserve managers.

How are money market funds acting? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, addresses the level of cash in retail money market funds.

What is behind the historic strength in gold prices? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, addresses the issue of strong gold prices.

Join Greg Ellston, Confluence Investment Management’s CIO of Asset Allocation, for a discussion of this quarter’s outlook and changes to the Asset Allocation portfolios. Greg begins with the macro backdrop, discussing the economy and policy. From there, he shows how this macro information leads to concrete adjustments in portfolios. Even in cases where no changes are made, the analysis that holds a portfolio steady is itself “active.”

What is the risk if state and local governments have to cut spending? Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, discusses how the coronavirus crisis may affect state and local spending.

How is the pandemic affecting the labor market? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, discusses the pandemic's impact on the labor market, focusing primarily on older workers.

Is the Federal Reserve tightening policy? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, addresses this question and discusses whether there is evidence to indicate that the Fed is now tightening policy.

In our “2020 Geopolitical Outlook,” we named the 2020 U.S. election as a key event. Our recent five-part Weekly Geopolitical Report series examined this issue in more detail. This is the final episode looking at the 2020 election. In this episode, we handicap the election based on the tools of prediction, polling and decision markets. We examine the geopolitics of the election, focusing on what countries are likely to intervene in our election, their capabilities and their goals. We also touch on what we expect to see in terms of policy if we get a new president or if the incumbent wins, and likely market reaction in either scenario.