Confluence Podcasts

This seventh episode discusses Confluence’s 2020 Outlook, which is titled “Storm Watch.” We explain the key points of our outlook, including three factors where our forecast could go awry, and also provide an update on developments since the report was published in December.

This episode takes our discussion of process from the previous episode and shows how it works at Confluence. Financial decisions exist in a milieu of uncertainty, and thus a sound process is critical to successful equity selection. In this episode, Mark Keller, CEO and CIO of Confluence, details the firm’s process for selecting equities.

This episode examines the issue of making decisions under conditions of uncertainty. There are some situations of pure luck, like lotteries. There are others, like chess, which are pure skill. For most everything else in between, including investing, there is a mix of skill and luck in success. Under such conditions, investors are faced with the following problem: is an investment manager’s success due to skill or luck? In this podcast, Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses what an investor should focus on when trying to select an investment manager. A hint…it’s all about process.

In this episode, we explain the equality/efficiency cycle, which is based on the seminal work of the economist Arthur Okun and the cycle work of Peter Turchin. The cycle explains how societies shift from focusing on equality, which usually includes policies favoring regulation, autarky, and high marginal taxes, to efficiency, where policies of deregulation, globalization, and low marginal tax rates dominate. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses where the U.S. is in this cycle and the impact on American hegemony.

This third episode of the series concludes the overview of Hegemonic Stability Theory and U.S. hegemony with an examination of the financial elements of hegemony. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses the evolution of the reserve currency role and the costs and benefits of financial hegemony.

Confluence’s Chief Market Strategist Bill O’Grady continues the discussion on Hegemonic Stability Theory and the unique aspects of American Hegemony.

Confluence’s Chief Market Strategist Bill O’Grady discusses the origins, the roles, and the world affairs of Hegemonic Stability Theory.