Curve Your Enthusiasm

Royce and Ian interpret the Governor of the Bank of Canada’s remarks on a host of vital issues, including a micro-cut, the effective lower bound for rates, the future of quantitative easing and the central bank’s inflation mandate. Royce also discusses the upgrades to the economic outlook in the latest Monetary Policy Report, and Ian breaks down some of the divergences seen in short-term Canadian rates. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com

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Ian and Royce are back in the studio, talking about the potential merits of a Bank of Canada microcut. Ian discusses the interesting way in which yields have been rising, while Royce does a deep-dive on the forecasts we can expect to see coming out of the MPR next week. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com

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Ian and Royce discuss new information regarding the Bank of Canada’s toolbox. They analyze the most likely ways the central bank can adjust its policies in the event that upside or downside risks materialize in light of the latest commentary coming from officials. The hosts also look at ways monetary policymakers can alter the mix of stimulus as they inevitably bump up against the limits of bond buying even in base-case scenarios for 2021. Ian and Royce end the show by bidding farewell to 2020 in a unique way. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com

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Lisa Raitt joins Royce to give a former-insider’s view on what turned out to be a heftier-than-expected Fall Economic Statement from the Federal government. Ian and Royce then discuss the debt management strategy included in the document and its interplay with the Bank of Canada’s quantitative easing program. Ian sneaks in some questions at the end of the show about how worrisome the current strength in the Canadian dollar will be for the eventual economic recovery. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com

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Ian & Royce discuss the implication of recent vaccine developments on the bond market and what it means for our macro forecast. As well, Royce discusses what the appointment of Yellen to Treasury Secretary means for the FOMC. Ian speaks about the reflation theme and what the bond market expects from the upcoming Budget update on November 30th Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com

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Royce and Ian have a wide-ranging discussion on the upcoming Bank of Canada decision. Royce outlines the updates the Bank of Canada will need to make to its forecasts, while Ian discusses the likelihood of calibrating the quantitative easing program. The conversation also touches on the limitations of the Bank of Canada’s purchases on the level of domestic bond yields, and how fiscal support might be leaking out of the Canadian economy. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com

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Ian and Royce discuss their expectations for the upcoming Bank of Canada interest-rate decision, focusing on what the forecasts will look like and whether or not any adjustments to QE will be announced. Royce discusses the outlook for CPI, while Ian highlights some opportunities in real-return bonds. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com

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Ian is joined by his colleague Jeremy Stretch this week, our Head of G10 FX Strategy. Jeremy discusses all aspects of Brexit, from the political climate to the yield curve to prospects for the GBP. Ian identifies some potential curve divergence between the UK and Canada, and ruminates on the merits of a relative CAD steepener versus GBP flattener. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com

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Ian & Royce are back in the studio this week, discussing their interpretation of the Throne Speech and what it means for macro and rates. Royce talks about the sustainability of fiscal support, while Ian ruminates on what needs to happen for issuance risks to increase going forward. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com

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Royce and Ian are reunited in the studio after a month apart. They provide their thoughts on the most recent Bank of Canada interest rate announcement, in particular why the Bank didn’t mention the Canadian dollar and what the inclusion of the word “calibrate” means for the future of QE. Royce outlines his view on why the Bank’s forward guidance is being misunderstood in the market, while Ian makes the point that rising issuance may have the same impact as a tapering of QE. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com

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