Doom Debates!

Doom Debates!

By Liron ShapiraBusinessTechnology
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Doom Debates! episodes

  • This Harvard Professor Says AI Alignment Will BACKFIRE - Dr. Stephen Casper

    Stephen Casper, PhD, is an incoming tenure-track professor of public policy at the Harvard Kennedy School.

    Prof. Casper is relatively unworried about the threat of human extinction from rogue superintelligence, but he is concerned about a handful of companies wielding extremely powerful AI and enfeebling the public. That’s why he’s an AI governance hawk who advocates for taxes and regulation to keep frontier labs in check.

    We agree that slowing down AI development would make the world safer. But you know his position is unique when he says he’d prefer to have less research on AI alignment!

    Timestamps

    00:00:00 — Cold Open

    00:00:50 — Introducing Stephen “Cas” Casper

    00:04:21 — Cas’s MIT Research: Model Tampering Attacks

    00:07:14 — What’s Your P(Doom)?™

    00:08:34 — Why a 5–10% P(Doom) Feels Patronizing

    00:13:07 — Crux: “The Intelligence Ceiling Might Not Be That High”

    00:17:18 — Power Structures vs. the Shortcut-Finding AI

    00:26:03 — Thought Experiment: A Data Center From the Year 2126

    00:28:25 — Is a Data Center as Dangerous as a Nuke?

    00:33:41 — Cas’s Mainline Scenario: Slow-Burn Gradual Disempowerment

    00:40:49 — A Multipolar Powder Keg: 10 Companies, Thousands of Open Models

    00:43:48 — Boarding the Doom Train at a Later Station

    00:45:49 — Why Cas Is an “Anti-Timelines” Person

    00:52:26 — Sycophancy, MechaHitler & Nudification: Foreseeable Failures

    00:57:18 — Crux: Does Humanity Get Retries?

    01:02:39 — The Scariest Superintelligent Optimizers Are Companies

    01:06:08 — Lessons From the Deepfake Ecosystem: DALL-E 2 vs. Stable Diffusion

    01:12:42 — The Case for a Pause Treaty

    01:16:35 — Whac-A-Mole Forever: What Winning Looks Like

    01:20:51 — Enshittification and the 84% Who Don’t Use AI

    01:30:30 — Alignment Research as Safety Washing

    01:34:25 — The Jevons Paradox of AI Safety

    01:36:48 — Cas Would Press the Button to Halt Superalignment

    01:39:21 — Wrap-Up: The Unsexy Path to Lowering P(Doom)

    Links

    Cas’s links

    * Cas’s website

    * Cas on X

    * Cas’s Google Scholar

    * Cas’s MATS stream

    Things referenced

    * Superintelligence by Nick Bostrom

    * Gradual Disempowerment (Duvenaud et al.)

    * If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies

    * AI 2027

    * UK AI Security Institute

    * Center for Human-Compatible AI (Berkeley)

    * Internet Watch Foundation

    Doom Debates episodes mentioned

    * Mike Israetel Returns — AI’s Gonna Kill Everyone vs. AI Will Make Everything Awesome

    * Top AI Professor Has 85% P(Doom) — David Duvenaud

    * He Leads a Top AI Research Program, But He’d Hit the PAUSE Button — Kevin Zhu

    * Alignment is EASY and Roko’s Basilisk is GOOD?! — Roko Mijic

    * Andrew Critch vs. Liron Shapira: Will AI Extinction Be Fast Or Slow?

    * AI Could Give Humans MORE Control — Ozzie Gooen

    * Steven Byrnes Part 1

    Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.

    Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏



    Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe
    1 hr 42 min
  • He Leads a Top AI Research Program, But He’d Hit the PAUSE Button Today! Kevin Zhu, Algoverse Founder

    Kevin Zhu walked away from a lucrative quant career to build Algoverse, one of the most productive mentorship programs for aspiring AI researchers. Can we agree on the best research path to a safe future? Let’s take a ride on the Doom Train!

    00:00:00 — Cold Open

    00:00:58 — Introducing Kevin Zhu

    00:02:10 — From Citadel Quant to AI Researcher

    00:09:14 — The Story of Founding AlgoVerse

    00:12:53 — Discovering AI Safety: LessWrong & ARENA

    00:17:22 — Emergent Misalignment Research

    00:22:37 — Yudkowsky, MIRI & “Intellidynamics”

    00:26:50 — What’s Your P(Doom)?™

    00:29:37 — Kevin’s Timeline to AGI + AI 2027

    00:30:42 — Would You Slow Down AI?

    00:37:44 — Coming Out of the P(Doom) Closet

    00:45:49 — Should We Shame AI Company Workers?

    00:52:27 — OpenAI’s Superalignment Team Collapse

    00:55:01 — Riding the Doom Train™

    00:55:46 — First Stop: Instrumental Convergence

    01:04:58 — Does Kevin Agree with the Orthogonality Thesis?

    01:07:08 — “It’s Just Math.” Just Unplug It.

    01:08:28 — “We Have a Safe Development Process”

    01:11:49 — Group Dynamics & Laws Will Save Us

    01:13:44 — Superintelligence Will Spare Us

    01:14:25 — Is P(Doom) Just Bad Epistemology?

    01:15:53 — China Will Race No Matter What

    01:17:45 — Maybe Human Extinction Is Good?

    01:20:36 — Wrap-Up

    Links

    Algoverse AI Research — https://algoverseairesearch.org/

    Kevin Zhu on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/kevinzhu.ai/reels/

    Emergent Misalignment (Betley, Owain Evans et al.) — https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.17424

    Emergent Misalignment via In-Context Learning (Algoverse follow-up, ACL 2025) — https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.11288

    Agentic Misalignment (the blackmail result) — https://www.anthropic.com/research/agentic-misalignment

    LessWrong — https://www.lesswrong.com/

    PauseAI (global) — https://pauseai.info/

    OpenAI Superalignment — disbanded (CNBC, May 2024) — https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/17/openai-superalignment-sutskever-leike.html

    Evan Hubinger — “Why I’m joining Anthropic” — https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/7jn5aDadcMH6sFeJe/why-i-m-joining-anthropic

    AI 2027 — https://ai-2027.com/

    Bentham’s Bulldog / Matthew Adelstein on Doom Debates — https://doomdebates.com/p/benthams-bulldog-ai-doom-debate

    Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.

    Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏



    Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe
    1 hr 24 min
  • Top Mathematicians Face Irrelevance, a 7-Year-Old's P(Doom) + The “Off Switch" Debate — Livestream May 29

    Liron explains the 80-year-old Erdős conjecture that a GPT model breakthrough, Scott Aaronson ponders "the last days of human relevance”, multiple live callers debate me, plus my 7-year-old son drops in to share his P(Doom)!

    Timestamps

    00:00:00 — Cold Open

    00:00:42 — First Donation & “Why Is a Duck?”

    00:02:54 — Can AI Draw “Colorless Green Ideas Sleep Furiously”?

    00:08:26 — Doom Debates Sponsors Less Online — Be Our Intern

    00:10:43 — Who We Still Need to Get on the Show

    00:26:44 — Claude Opus 4.8 & the Rising Waterline of Intelligence

    00:28:48 — The 80-Year-Old Geometry Conjecture a GPT Model Cracked

    00:44:50 — My 7-Year-Old Ezra Joins: ChatGPT, Minecraft & His P(Doom)

    00:58:46 — How the AI Actually Beat Erdős’s Grid

    01:03:50 — Scott Aaronson: “The Last Days of Human Relevance”

    01:07:53 — Why the Foom Is Taking Years, Not Hours

    01:10:47 — Is Ori Just a Yes Man?

    01:12:41 — Does P = NP + AI?

    01:23:43 — METR’s Beth Barnes: “We Are Not On Top Of It”

    01:28:31 — Liron’s Vibe Coding Confession

    01:31:21 — Alverin Joins: Can We Wait, Then Hit the Off Switch?

    01:48:01 — AI in a Box & the Super-Persuasion Threshold

    02:06:24 — Brian Joins: The Ways It Could Go Right

    02:11:30 — Jack Joins: How Fast Will the Foom Be?

    02:18:48 — 80,000 Hours, Inventing Erdős Problems & Holly Elmore’s Warning

    02:29:42 — Wrap-Up

    Links

    LessOnline 2026 — June 5–7, Berkeley — https://less.online/

    Manifest 2026 — June 12–14 — https://manifest.is/

    Shtetl-Optimized — “Dispatches from the possibly last days of human relevance” — https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=9782

    Global Call for AI Red Lines (Bengio, Hinton, Harari) — red-lines.ai

    Order the 80,000 Hours book — Benjamin Todd (Penguin) — https://80000hours.org/book/

    Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.

    Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏



    Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe
    2 hr 31 min
  • Anthropic's New Hire Should WORRY You, AI is a Math Genius, Live Callers! — Livestream (May 22)

    ***ATTENTION: We’re looking for paid help at LessOnline from June 5-7. Apply now!***

    OpenAI pushes the frontier of mathematics, Anthropic hires Andrej Karpathy to work on recursive self-improvement, live callers challenge the doom argument, and we've got a soundboard!

    Doom Debates Paid Gig in Berkeley!

    Doom Debates is proudly sponsoring The LessOnline conference this year and we got a merch table in the courtyard! We need 2 people to help represent the show — hand out T-shirts, talk to attendees, and spread the good word about Doom Debates. If you’re a regular viewer of the show, you probably know enough. Just be knowledgeable, friendly and helpful!

    * 💰We pay you $500 to help out during the entire Fri-Sun event

    * 🎟️ Plus you get FREE admission to the conference ($675 value)

    This is best suited for someone local to the SF Bay Area or who can arrange accommodations. If you’re interested, send an email to [email protected] or DM Producer Ori on Discord. Tell us a little about yourself and your availability for all 3 days. Thanks!

    Links

    Less Online conference (June 5–7, Berkeley) — https://less.online

    Doom Debates Discord — https://discord.gg/g2X8h5UCrU

    OpenAI — “An OpenAI model has disproved a central conjecture in discrete geometry” — https://openai.com/index/model-disproves-discrete-geometry-conjecture/

    Timestamps

    00:00:00 — Welcome + New Soundboard!

    00:09:27 — Doom Debates Is Sponsoring Less Online

    00:17:30 — Ben Goertzel Episode Recap

    00:27:30 — Goertzel's Alignment Blind Spot

    00:34:21 — OpenAI Disproves an 80-Year-Old Erdős Conjecture

    00:41:00 — David Deutsch Says "Amazing"

    00:50:31 — Eliezer Yudkowsky's Job Replacement Progression

    00:54:07 — Anthropic's $44 Billion Run Rate

    01:07:45 — Schadenfreude Week: Liron Loses $10K

    01:13:04 — Teaching Ezra Prediction Markets

    01:18:11 — Caller Williawa: Is the Goal Engine Argument Effective?

    01:37:00 — Caller Will: Brain Rot and Idiocracy

    01:55:04 — Anthropic Hires Karpathy for Recursive Self-Improvement

    01:57:16 — Rob Wiblin Says Recursive Self-Improvement Should be "Illegal"

    02:01:37 — Caller Henry: The Chicken Riddle

    02:08:41 — David Sacks Kills the AI Executive Order

    02:11:20 — The Philanthropy Tidal Wave

    02:15:56 — Donate to Doom Debates

    Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.

    Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏



    Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe
    2 hr 21 min
  • I Called Out a16z Partner (Martin Casado) for Downplaying AI Capabilities in 2024

    Now that Doom Debates is almost 2 years old, enough time has passed that we can revisit my claims from 2024. I claim they’ve been aging well!

    In this early episode, I react to Martin Casado, a General Partner at Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) who claims that AI is basically just a buzzword for statistical models and simulations. As a result of this worldview, he only predicts incremental AI progress that doesn’t pose an existential threat to humanity, and he sees AI regulation as a net negative.

    From my perspective, Martin’s problem is that he needs to go beyond analyzing AI as just statistical models and simulations, and analyze it using the more predictive concept of “intelligence” in the sense of hitting tiny high-value targets in exponentially-large search spaces.If Martin appreciated that intelligence is a quantifiable property that algorithms have, and that our existing AIs are getting close to surpassing human-level general intelligence, then hopefully he’d come around to raising his P(doom) and appreciating the urgent extinction risk we face.

    Links

    Watch the original episode of the Cognitive Revolution podcast with Martin and host Nathan Labenz — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZ7788oKoss

    Follow Martin — https://x.com/martin_casado

    Follow Nate — https://x.com/labenz

    Follow Liron — https://x.com/liron

    Timestamps

    00:00 Introducing Martin Casado

    01:42 Martin’s AGI Timeline

    05:39 Martin’s Analysis of Self-Driving Cars

    15:30 Heavy-Tail Distributions

    38:03 Understanding General Intelligence

    38:29 AI's Progress in Specific Domains

    43:20 AI’s Understanding of Meaning

    47:16 Compression and Intelligence

    48:09 Symbol Grounding

    53:24 Human Abstractions and AI

    01:18:18 The Frontier of AI Applications

    01:23:04 Human vs. AI: Concept Creation and Reasoning

    01:25:51 The Complexity of the Universe and AI's Limitations

    01:28:16 AI's Potential in Biology and Simulation

    01:32:40 The Essence of Intelligence and Creativity in AI

    01:41:13 AI's Future Capabilities

    02:00:29 Intelligence vs. Simulation

    02:14:59 AI Regulation

    02:23:05 Concluding Thoughts

    ---

    Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.

    Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏



    Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe
    2 hr 38 min
  • Ben Goertzel Wants to Build AGI Even FASTER — AI Doom Debate

    Dr. Ben Goertzel is a pioneering AI researcher, entrepreneur, and author who has helped organize AGI as a research field since the 2000s through books, workshops, and conferences.

    We talk about the early days of AGI research with Yudkowsky, get Ben’s timeline to the singularity, and I try to understand what makes him so optimistic that superintelligence will be beneficial for humanity.

    Timestamps

    00:00:00 — Cold Open

    00:00:59 — Introducing Dr. Ben Goertzel

    00:04:11 — How Did Ben Get Interested in AGI?

    00:08:26 — Early AGI Enthusiast Community: Extropians & SL4

    00:15:15 — Is There Headroom Above Human Intelligence?

    00:19:53 — Can Superintelligent AI Kill Everyone?

    00:28:25 — Ben’s AGI Timeline: 2029

    00:36:00 — What Modern AI Is Missing

    00:42:01 — AGI to Superintelligence — FOOM in a Matter of Months

    00:46:34 — What’s Your P(Doom)?™

    00:53:37 — Ben’s Case for AI Acceleration

    01:03:50 — The Orthogonality Thesis Is “Dishonest”

    01:13:43 — Liron: Moore’s Law for Goal Achievement

    01:23:50 — Ben: Alignment Is Just Good Parenting

    01:27:36 — Alignment in Practice: OmegaCLAW

    01:35:47 — Creating Stable Goals Under Self-Modification

    01:45:22 — SingularityNET, OpenBGI, and the ASI Alliance

    01:57:31 — The $ASI Token Economy

    02:01:15 — Closing

    Links

    Ben Goertzel on X — https://x.com/bengoertzel

    SingularityNET — https://singularitynet.io/

    OpenBGI — https://openbgi.com/

    Hyperon AGI Framework — https://hyperon.dev/

    OmegaCLAW on GitHub — https://github.com/asi-alliance/OmegaClaw-Core

    ASI Alliance — https://superintelligence.io/

    The Consciousness Explosion (book) — https://theconsciousnessexplosion.ai/

    “The Singularity Institute’s Scary Idea (and Why I Don’t Buy It)” (2010) — http://multiverseaccordingtoben.blogspot.com/2010/10/singularity-institutes-scary-idea-and.html

    Ken Stanley Debate — https://lironshapira.substack.com/p/debate-with-a-former-openai-research

    Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.

    Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏



    Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe
    2 hr 4 min
  • NEWS: Trump & Xi Want AI Guardrails, ChatGPT vs Claude, and Liron Caught Rationalizing!? DD Live (5/15)

    We recap the Dr. Mike Israetel debate and dig into the nuances of rationality vs. rationalization. Then onto the week's biggest news: Anthropic dethroning OpenAI, Trump and Xi Jinping exploring AI guardrails, and Liron's own company AI going rogue.

    Timestamps

    00:00:00 — Cold Open

    00:03:09 — Dr. Mike Israetel Round 2 Recap

    00:14:34 — A Viewer Accuses Liron of Rationalizing

    00:34:20 — Is Sam Altman Any Worse than a Typical Tech CEO?

    00:45:15 — What Would Lower P(Doom) Below 10%?

    00:53:25 — Can We Disconnect an ASI from the Internet?

    01:05:00 — Should Doomers Boycott AI?

    01:16:27 — Liron Reacts to ThePrimeagen Reacting to the Yud Debate

    01:26:13 — Ben Goertzel Episode Preview

    01:38:10 — Scrolling Twitter: MIRI, Ryan Greenblatt

    01:47:32 — Liron’s AI Goes Rogue at Work

    01:49:15 — “Positive Alignment” Paper Gets Destroyed

    01:58:30 — Anthropic Dethrones OpenAI

    02:12:06 — Trump & Xi Talk AI Guardrails

    Links

    Zvi Mowshowitz AI roundup blog — https://thezvi.wordpress.com/

    “The Bottom Line” by Eliezer Yudkowsky (LessWrong) — https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/34XxbRFe54FycoCDw/the-bottom-line

    Rationality: From AI to Zombies by Eliezer Yudkowsky — https://intelligence.org/rationality-ai-zombies/

    Less Online 2026 conference (June 5–7) — https://less.online/

    Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.

    Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏



    Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe
    2 hr 17 min
  • Who Was Liron Shapira BEFORE Doom Debates? — Interview on Theo Jaffee's Podcast from December 2023

    In December 2023, I joined the Theo Jaffee Podcast to talk about a wide range of topics including non-AI x-risks, where I disagree with Eliezer Yudkwowsky, cryptocurrency and if P(Doom) is rigorous. This episode was recorded 6 months before I'd started Doom Debates. Let's look back with the power of hindsight and see if my answers still hold up.

    Links

    #10: Liron Shapira — AI doom, FOOM, rationalism, and crypto (YouTube) — https://youtu.be/YfEcAtHExFM

    Watch Theo Jafee now on MTS — https://www.mts.now/

    MTS Live — https://x.com/MTSlive

    Timestamps

    00:00:00 — Theo's Introduction

    00:01:03 — Is Liron Worried About Non-AI Existential Risks

    00:03:36 — Suffering Risks

    00:05:22 — Is P(Doom) rigorous?

    00:09:42 — Is Eliezer Overestimating P(Doom)?

    00:12:18 — Where Does Liron Disagree with Eliezer?

    00:15:43 — What Would Change Liron's Mind

    00:17:14 — Elon Musk's AI Timelines

    00:18:34 — Is xAI Making Things Worse?

    00:20:24 — The Case for an AI Manhattan Project

    00:22:32 — Are Superforecasters Wrong About AI Risk?

    00:26:02 — The Race Against Time for Alignment

    00:28:01 — Headroom Above Human Intelligence

    00:33:31 — Vitalik's d/acc Framework

    00:35:23 — Edging Toward Superintelligence

    00:38:21 — From Chatbot to World-Ender

    00:41:55 — GPT Paradigm vs. AlphaZero

    00:43:18 — Critiquing AI Optimism

    00:48:29 — Deceptive Alignment and Gradient Descent

    00:53:31 — Does Nice Training Data Make Nice AI?

    00:57:57 — How Do You Live with 50% P(Doom)?

    01:00:08 — Why Have Kids If the World Might End?01:02:16 — Israel vs Hamas

    01:06:15 — How LessWrong Changed Liron's Lif

    e01:08:42 — Rationalism and Effective Altruism

    01:14:49 — Why Blockchain Has No Use Case Beyond Cryptocurrency

    01:22:13 — Charlie Munger and Richard Feynman

    01:24:38 — Closing

    Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.

    Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏



    Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe
    1 hr 26 min
  • Dr. Mike Israetel Returns to Debate: Will AI Kill Everyone, Or Make Everything Awesome?

    Dr. Mike Israetel is back in the arena to FIGHT ME (verbally) about the likelihood of AI killing everyone vs. the likelihood of AI making the universe totally awesome!

    Back by popular demand after last year’s widely-viewed debate, the renowned exercise scientist, fitness entrepreneur, and low-P(Doom) AI futurist reveals where he gets off the Doom Train™, why he thinks AI is conscious, and how he pictures the coming AI utopia.

    Links

    Watch Dr. Mike’s AI/futurism YouTube channel —https://www.youtube.com/@mikeisraetelmakingprogress

    Dr. Mike on X — https://x.com/misraetel

    Make sure to watch Round 1 of our debate from last year — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RaDWSPMdM4o

    Liron referenced a recent episode, “Steven Byrnes Returns — 90% P(Doom) on the Trajectory to ASI” — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oOb9K1KIAyk

    Timestamps

    00:00:00 — Cold Open

    00:00:48 — Returning Champion Dr. Mike Israetel!

    00:02:13 — What's Been Your Biggest AI Productivity Gain?

    00:03:46 — Can AI Be a Personal Trainer? Dr. Mike Judges Liron's Technique

    00:09:41 — Get Good at Taking Advice From AI

    00:14:23 — Dr. Mike Israetel, What's Your Latest P(Doom)?™

    00:20:12 — Liron's Mainline Scenario: Loss of Control

    00:21:39 — Mike's Problems With a Paperclip Maximizer Scenario

    00:26:00 — What Will the Goals of a Superintelligence Be?

    00:28:49 — AI Labs Have Bit Off More Than They Can Chew

    00:31:09 — Current AIs Are Moral

    00:34:40 — AIs With a Ruthless Game-Playing Flavor

    00:38:48 — Introducing the Doom Train

    00:45:07 — "Can It" vs. "Will It" — Two-Part Argument on AI X-Risk

    00:49:40 — Mike's Tweet on Superintelligence by 2027

    01:01:34 — AI as a Goal Engine

    01:20:51 — Offense vs. Defense in the Coming Cyber War

    01:39:14 — Is Morality Just Game Theory? The "Different Flavor" of Future AI

    01:46:16 — Ricardo's Law: Does AI Have Reason to Keep Us Around?

    01:52:14 — Why Mike Gets Off the Doom Train

    01:54:58 — Is AI Conscious?

    02:01:39 — Mike's Vision for the Coming AI Utopia

    02:06:52 — Wrap-Up

    Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.

    Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏



    Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe
    2 hr 9 min
  • Eliezer Yudkowsky Post-Debate Reaction, Elon's New Frenemy & Liron's Bet on Spencer Pratt!? - Doom Debates Live (5/8/26)

    Liron and Producer Ori explore the community's feedback to Eliezer Yudkowsky's $10,000 debate against an anonymous AI director. Plus, we unpack Eliezer's new post on the "irretrievability" of ASI development, Anthropic feasting on xAI's compute, and Liron's 4x Kalshi bet on... Spencer Pratt.

    Timestamps

    00:00:00 — Welcome

    00:02:30 — The $10,000 Debate Post-Mortem

    00:06:01 — Paul Tudor Jones: “Zero Risk Management on AI”

    00:09:49 — Liron’s Jerry Springer Moment

    00:14:19 — Why Yud Wore Steampunk

    00:20:19 — YouTube Reacts: “Five Minutes In, Already Unhinged”

    00:27:19 — 47F’s Anti-Disparagement Legal Theory

    00:32:18 — Yud Wants Round 2

    00:35:37 — Lumpin Space, Ben Goertzel & Early AI Safety Memories

    00:47:06 — Eliezer’s “Irretrievability” Post

    00:56:35 — The Maginot Line and Murphy’s Curse

    01:08:13 — Blockchain vs AI: Earth’s Compute Swing

    01:15:15 — Anthropic Eats Elon’s Compute

    01:25:29 — Is Elon Tweeting as His Own Mom?

    01:30:03 — Waymo Dodges a Fallen Scooter Rider

    01:33:00 — Why Liron Bet on Spencer Pratt

    01:37:13 — Live Twitter Scroll!

    01:38:11 — Mira Murati: “Directionally Very Bad”

    01:50:07 — AI Copies Itself Across Servers

    01:56:44 — Steven Byrnes: LLMs Aren’t the Final Paradigm

    02:07:55 — Wrap-Up

    Links

    LessOnline 2026 (June 5-7, Berkeley, CA) — https://less.online/

    Eliezer Yudkowsky, “Irretrievability; or, Murphy’s Curse of Oneshotness upon ASI” (LessWrong, May 4, 2026) —https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fbrz9xhKpEeTKw5zL/irretrievability-or-murphy-s-curse-of-oneshotness-upon-asi

    Anthropic, SpaceX announce Colossus 1 compute deal (CNBC) — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/06/anthropic-spacex-data-center-capacity.html

    SpaceXAI announcement: Compute partnership with Anthropic — https://x.ai/news/anthropic-compute-partnership

    Kalshi: Spencer Pratt LA Mayor market — https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmayorla/la/kxmayorla-26

    Morris worm — Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morris_worm

    Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.

    Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏



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    2 hr 12 min

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It's time to talk about the end of the world. With your host, Liron Shapira.

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