Doom Debates!

Fresh off my debate with Destiny, his Discord community invited me into their voice chat to talk about AI doom. Just like the man himself, his fans are sharp.

Let's find out where they get off The Doom Train™.

My recent debate with Destiny — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNgffLZTeWw

Timestamps

00:00:00 — Cold Open

00:00:54 — Liron Joins Destiny’s Discord

00:02:21 — The AI Doom Premise

00:03:27 — Defining Intelligence and Is An LLM Really AI?

00:07:12 — Will AI Become Uncontrollable?

00:12:44 — The AI Alignment Problem

00:24:11 — The Difficulty of Pausing AI

00:26:01 — AI vs The Human Brain

00:32:41 — Future AI Capabilities, Steering Toward Goals, & Philosophical Disagreements

Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.

Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏

Renowned scientists just set The Doomsday Clock closer than ever to midnight.

I agree our collective doom seems imminent, but why do the clocksetters point to climate change—not rogue AI—as an existential threat?

UChicago Professor Daniel Holz, a top physicist who sets the Doomsday Clock, joins me to debate society’s top existential risks.

00:00:00 — Cold Open 

00:00:51 — Introducing Professor Holz

00:02:08 — The Doomsday Clock is at 85 Seconds to Midnight! 

00:04:37 — What's Your P(Doom)?™ 

00:08:09 — Making A Probability of Doomsday, or P(Doom), Equation 

00:12:07 — How We All Die: Nuclear vs Climate vs AI 

00:21:08 — Nuclear Close Calls from The Cold War 

00:28:38 — History of The Doomsday Clock 

00:30:18 — The Threat of Biological Risks Like Mirror Life 

00:33:40 — Professor Holz’s Position on AI Misalignment Risk 

00:44:49 — Does The Doomsday Clock Give Short Shrift to AI Misalignment Risk? 

00:59:09 — Why Professor Holz Founded UChicago’s Existential Risk Laboratory (XLab) 

01:06:22 — The State of Academic Research on AI Safety & Existential Risks 

01:12:32 — The Case for Pausing AI Development 

01:17:11 — Debate: Is Climate Change an Existential Threat? 

01:28:48 — Call to Action: How to Reduce Our Collective Threat

Links

Professor Daniel Holz’s Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Holz

XLab (Existential Risk Laboratory) — https://xrisk.uchicago.edu/

2026 Doomsday Clock Statement — https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/2026-statement/

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (Nonprofit that produces the clock)— https://thebulletin.org/

UChicago Magazine features Prof. Holz’s class — “Are We Doomed?”: https://mag.uchicago.edu/science-medicine/are-we-doomed

The Doomsday Machine by Daniel Ellsberg — https://www.amazon.com/Doomsday-Machine-Confessions-Nuclear-Planner/dp/1608196704

If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies by Eliezer Yudkowsky & Nate Soares — https://www.amazon.com/Anyone-Builds-Everyone-Dies-Superhuman/dp/0316595640

Learn more about pausing frontier AI development from PauseAI — https://pauseai.info

Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.

Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏

Liron was invited to give a presentation to some of the most promising creators in AI safety communications.

Get a behind-the-scenes look at Doom Debates and how the channel has grown so quickly.

Learn more about the Frame Fellowship: https://framefellowship.com/

Timestamps

00:00:00 — Liron tees up the presentation

00:02:28 — Liron’s Frame Fellowhip Presentation

00:06:03 — Introducing Doom Debates

00:07:44 — Meeting the Frame Fellows

00:19:38 — Why I Started Doom Debates

00:30:20 — Handling Hate and Criticism

00:31:56 — The Talent Stack

00:39:34 — Finding Your Unique Niche

00:40:58 — Q&A

00:42:04 — On Funding the Show

00:48:05 — Audience Demographics & Gender Strategy

00:51:17 — How to communicate AI Risk Effectively

00:56:22 — Social Media Strategy

00:58:10 — Closing Remarks

Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.

Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏

Destiny has racked up millions of views for his sharp takes on political and cultural news. Now, I finally get to ask him about a topic he’s been agnostic on: Will AI end humanity?

Come ride with us on the Doom Train™ 🚂

Timestamps

00:00:00 — Teaser

00:01:16 — Welcoming Destiny

00:02:54 — What’s Your P(Doom)?™

00:04:46 — 2017 vs 2026: Destiny’s views on AI

00:11:04 — AI could vastly surpass human intelligence

00:16:02 — Can AI doom us?

00:18:42 — Intelligence doesn’t guarantee morality

00:22:18 — The vibes-based case against doom

00:29:58 — The human brain is inefficient

00:35:17 — Does every intelligence in the universe self-destruct via AI?

00:37:28 — Destiny turns the tables: Where does Liron get off The Doom Train™

00:46:07 — Will a warning shot cause society to develop AI safely?

00:54:10 — Roko’s Basilisk, the AI box problem

00:59:37 — Will Destiny update his P(Doom)?™

01:04:19 — Closing thoughts

Links

Destiny's YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/@destiny

Destiny's X account — https://x.com/TheOmniLiberal

Marc Andreessen saying AI isn’t dangerous because “it is math” — https://a16z.com/ai-will-save-the-world/

Will Smith eating spaghetti AI video — https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/ai-will-smith-eating-spaghetti

Roko’s Basilisk on LessWrong — https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/rokos-basilisk

Eliezer Yudkowsky’s AI Box Experiment — https://www.yudkowsky.net/singularity/aibox

Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.

Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏

On the eve of superintelligence, real AI safety is a nonexistent field. I break down why in my latest essay, The Facade of AI Safety Will Crumble.

This is a podcast reading of a recent Substack post: https://lironshapira.substack.com/p/the-facade-of-ai-safety-will-crumble

Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.

Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏

Elon Musk just made a stunning admission about the insane future he’s steering us toward.

In a new interview with Dwarkesh Patel and John Collison on the Cheeky Pint podcast, Elon said that humanity can’t expect to be “in charge” of AI for long, because humans will soon only have 1% of the combined total human+AI intelligence.

Then, he claimed to have a plan to build AI overlords that will naturally support humanity's flourishing.

In this mini episode, I react to Elon's remarks and expose why his plan for humanity's survival in the age of AI is dangerously flimsy.

My original tweet: https://x.com/liron/status/2020906862397489492

Clip source: Elon Musk – "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”

Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.

Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏

California gubernatorial candidate Zoltan Istvan reveals his P(Doom) and makes the case for universal basic income and radical life extension.

Timestamps

00:00:00 — Teaser

00:00:50 — Meet Zoltan, Democratic Candidate for California Governor

00:08:30 — The 2026 California Governor's Race

00:12:50 — Zoltan's Platform Is Automated Abundance

00:19:45 — What's Your P(Doom)™

00:28:26 — Campaigning on Existential Risk

00:32:36 — Does Zoltan Support a Global AI Pause?

00:48:39 — Exploring His Platform: Education, Crime, and Affordability

01:08:55 — Exploring His Platform:: Super Cities, Space, and Longevity

01:13:00 — Closing Thoughts

Links

Zoltan Istvan’s Campaign for California Governor – zoltanistvan2026.com

The Transhumanist Wager by Zoltan Istvan – https://www.amazon.com/Transhumanist-Wager-Zoltan-Istvan/dp/0988616114

Wired Article on the “Bunker” Party – https://www.wired.com/story/ai-risk-party-san-francisco/

PauseAI – pauseai.info

SL4 Mailing List Archive – sl4.org/archive

Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.

Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏

Get ready for a rematch with the one & only Bentham’s Bulldog, a.k.a. Matthew Adelstein! Our first debate covered a wide range of philosophical topics.

Today’s Debate #2 is all about Matthew’s new argument against the inevitability of AI doom. He comes out swinging with a calculated P(Doom) of just 2.6% , based on a multi-step probability chain that I challenge as potentially falling into a “Type 2 Conjunction Fallacy” (a.k.a. Multiple Stage Fallacy).

We clash on whether to expect “alignment by default” and the nature of future AI architectures. While Matthew sees current RLHF success as evidence that AIs will likely remain compliant, I argue that we’re building “Goal Engines” — superhuman optimization modules that act like nuclear cores wrapped in friendly personalities. We debate whether these engines can be safely contained, or if the capability to map goals to actions is inherently dangerous and prone to exfiltration.

Despite our different forecasts (my 50% vs his sub-10%), we actually land in the “sane zone” together on some key policy ideas, like the potential necessity of a global pause.

While Matthew’s case for low P(Doom) hasn’t convinced me, I consider his post and his engagement with me to be super high quality and good faith. We’re not here to score points, we just want to better predict how the intelligence explosion will play out.

Timestamps

00:00:00 — Teaser

00:00:35 — Bentham’s Bulldog Returns to Doom Debates

00:05:43 — Higher-Order Evidence: Why Skepticism is Warranted

00:11:06 — What’s Your P(Doom)™

00:14:38 — The “Multiple Stage Fallacy” Objection

00:21:48 — The Risk of Warring AIs vs. Misalignment

00:27:29 — Historical Pessimism: The “Boy Who Cried Wolf”

00:33:02 — Comparing AI Risk to Climate Change & Nuclear War

00:38:59 — Alignment by Default via Reinforcement Learning

00:46:02 — The “Goal Engine” Hypothesis

00:53:13 — Is Psychoanalyzing Current AI Valid for Future Systems?

01:00:17 — Winograd Schemas & The Fragility of Value

01:09:15 — The Nuclear Core Analogy: Dangerous Engines in Friendly Wrappers

01:16:16 — The Discontinuity of Unstoppable AI

01:23:53 — Exfiltration: Running Superintelligence on a Laptop

01:31:37 — Evolution Analogy: Selection Pressures for Alignment

01:39:08 — Commercial Utility as a Force for Constraints

01:46:34 — Can You Isolate the “Goal-to-Action” Module?

01:54:15 — Will Friendly Wrappers Successfully Control Superhuman Cores?

02:04:01 — Moral Realism and Missing Out on Cosmic Value

02:11:44 — The Paradox of AI Solving the Alignment Problem

02:19:11 — Policy Agreements: Global Pauses and China

02:26:11 — Outro: PauseCon DC 2026 Promo

Links

Bentham’s Bulldog Official Substack — https://benthams.substack.com

The post we debated — https://benthams.substack.com/p/against-if-anyone-builds-it-everyone

Apply to PauseCon DC 2026 here or via https://pauseai-us.org

Forethought Institute’s paper: Preparing for the Intelligence Explosion

Tom Davidson (Forethought Institute)’s post: How quick and big would a software intelligence explosion be?

Scott Alexander on the Coffeepocalypse Argument

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Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.

Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏

Harlan Stewart works in communications for the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI).

In this episode, Harlan and I give our honest opinions on Dario Amodei's new essay "The Adolescence of Technology".

Timestamps

0:00:00 — Cold Open

0:00:47 — How Harlan Stewart Got Into AI Safety

0:02:30 — What’s Your P(Doom)?™

0:04:09 — The “Doomer” Label

0:06:13 — Overall Reaction to Dario’s Essay: The Missing Mood

0:09:15 — The Rosy Take on Dario’s Essay

0:10:42 — Character Assassination & Low Blows

0:13:39 — Dario Amodei is Shifting the Overton Window in The Wrong Direction

0:15:04 — Object-Level vs. Meta-Level Criticisms

0:17:07 — The “Inevitability” Strawman Used by Dario

0:19:03 — Dario Refers to Doom as a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

0:22:38 — Dismissing Critics as “Too Theoretical”

0:43:18 — The Problem with Psychoanalyzing AI

0:56:12 — “Intellidynamics” & Reflective Stability

1:07:12 — Why Is Dario Dismissing an AI Pause?

1:11:45 — Final Takeaways

Links

Harlan’s X — https://x.com/HumanHarlan

“The Adolescence of Technology” by Dario Amodei — https://www.darioamodei.com/essay/the-adolescence-of-technology

Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.

Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏

Check out the new Doom Debates studio in this Q&A with special guest Producer Ori! Liron gets into a heated discussion about whether doomers must validate short-term risks, like data center water usage, in order to build a successful political coalition.

Originally streamed on Saturday, January 24.

Timestamps

00:00:00 — Cold Open

00:00:26 — Introduction and Studio Tour

00:08:17 — Q&A: Alignment, Accelerationism, and Short-Term Risks

00:18:15 — Dario Amodei, Davos, and AI Pause

00:27:42 — Producer Ori Joins: Locations and Vibes

00:35:31 — Legislative Strategy vs. Social Movements (The Tobacco Playbook)

00:45:01 — Ethics of Investing in or Working for AI Labs

00:54:23 — Defining Superintelligence and Human Limitations

01:02:58 — Technical Risks: Self-Replication and Cyber Warfare

01:19:08 — Live Debate with Zane: Short-Term vs. Long-Term Strategy

01:53:15 — Marketing Doom Debates and Guest Outreach

01:56:45 — Live Call with Jonas: Scenarios for Survival

02:05:52 — Conclusion and Mission Statement

Links

Liron’s X Post about Destiny — https://x.com/liron/status/2015144778652905671?s=20

Why Laws, Treaties, and Regulations Won’t Save Us from AI | For Humanity Ep. 77 — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUX00c5x2UM

Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.

Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏