Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news negative data is starting to flow more aggressively in the US as the consequences of dumb policy show through. It been a track to decline for the first 100 days of Trump II.

First, the US Redbook index of retail sales rose +6.1% last week from the week before, but the strong suspicion is that much of this is inflation-related.

And that is supported by a sharp drop in consumer sentiment reported by the Conference Board, down to a 13 year low in April and confirming the UofM earlier sentiment survey.

US job openings fell by -288,000 to 7.192 mln in March, down -901,000 from a year ago to the lowest level in six months and well below market expectations of 7.5 mln. The drop was broad-based. Their quit rate rose to an 8 month high.

The US trade deficit in goods widened sharply to -US$162 bln in March, the largest on record, and well above the expected -US$146 bln gap as tariff threats drove US importers to front-load their purchases. Unsurprisingly, that alos generated a spike in wholesale inventories.

This bad trade result probably cements a very weak Q1-2025 GDP result. The next AtlantaFed GDP Now update will come tomorrow, and is unlikely to be pretty.

The Dallas Fed's services sector survey pointed to weaker conditions and a weaker outlook.

The Canadian election has resulted in a narrow win for the center-left (in North American terms) Liberals and the Quebec coalition partner. This is an unusual fourth consecutive win for the Liberals, and an unlikely one, very much aided by Trump trolling. It will be a tough gig because they are clearly facing recession, also flowing from the newly-fractious US relationship.

The ECB survey on consumer inflation expectations in the euro-zone rose in March with the year ahead expectation up to 2.9%, its highest in a year.

EU consumer sentiment dropped in March and to its lowest since December.

And we should probably note that Denmark says it wants the EU to join the CPTPP.

In Australia, there are three days left of campaigning in their federal election. Polling is tightening. Despite those polls still showing Labour ahead, much will depend on how voters rank their preferences, which could make it rather close.

The overnight dairy Pulse auction came in better than the futures market signaled. The SMP price rose as expected and to its highest in a year, but the WMP price did not fall as expected, rather it showed a small gain and to its highest in three years.

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.17%, down another -4 bps from this time yesterday.

The price of gold will start today at US$3319/oz, and down -US$17 from yesterday.

Oil prices are down -US$1.50 at just on US$60.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is down a bit less, now just under US$64.50/bbl. These are two-week lows as global trade tensions and weak US data dampened the demand outlook.

The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.4 USc, down -0.2% from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 93 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 52.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 67.6 and down -10 bps.

The bitcoin price starts today up +1.3% from yesterday at US$95,401. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at +/- 0.9%.

You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.