A key question going forward is the extent to which making further AI progress will depend upon some form of continual learning. Dwarkesh Patel offers us an extended essay considering these questions and reasons to be skeptical of the pace of progress for a while. I am less skeptical about many of these particular considerations, and do my best to explain why in detail.

Separately, Ivanka Trump recently endorsed a paper with a discussion I liked a lot less but that needs to be discussed given how influential her voice might (mind you I said might) be to policy going forward, so I will then cover that here as well.

Dwarkesh Patel on Continual Learning

Dwarkesh Patel explains why he doesn’t think AGI is right around the corner, and why AI progress today is insufficient to replace most white collar employment: That continual learning is both [...]

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Outline:

(00:44) Dwarkesh Patel on Continual Learning

(09:43) Comparing Investments

(11:51) Comparing Predictions

(21:18) Others React to Dwarkesh Patel

(28:25) Ivanka Trump and The Era of Experience

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First published:
June 9th, 2025

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YEwzhjFzt3zKctg2F/dwarkesh-patel-on-continual-learning

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.