The FY23 deficit is tracking about $1.5 trillion, but only thanks to the odd accounting of student debt forgiveness. Excluding student debt, the deficit would be closer to $1.8tn, and almost $1tn larger than in FY22. This widening should partly reverse as we move into FY24, when we project a deficit around $1.6tn. This year’s “stealth stimulus” may help explain the economy’s resilience to rapid interest rate hikes.

 

SpeakersMichael Feroli, Chief US EconomistPhoebe White , Fixed Income Strategy Afonso Borges , Fixed Income Strategy 

 

This podcast was recorded on Aug. 1, 2023.This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4471329-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.