Economy Watch

Kia ora.

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news expectations of an imminent resolution of the Persian Gulf standoff have stalled. Iranian officials have reversed reopening the Strait of Hormuz after the US refused to end its blockade of Iranian ports. Ships attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz have been fired on.

This is expected to weigh on financial markets when they open later today.

This week locally will be all about the March quarter CPI which will be released on Tuesday. Because most of that quarter didn't see the oil price spike until March, markets expect a 2.9% quarterly rate, slightly less than the 3.1% rate in Q4, 2025. It is a data series that really needs to be released monthly. It will be preceded by trade balance (today), and followed by the QSBO and an update on productivity.

In Australia, there are no major economic data releases, although we will get a flash report on their April PMI.

In the US, apart from earnings updates, they too will get a flash April PMI, and confirmation hearings for Kevin Warsh will but this billionaire in the spotlight.

In China, PMI results will also feature in a light data week. In Japan, it will be about March trade data and retail sales. Central banks will review their monetary policy settings and rates in China, Malaysia and the Philippines this week.

Over the weekend, Iran confirmed what most people understood - Trump was 'claiming victory' without any deals in place, and that is making ship transit of the Straits of Hormuz hazardous again. It looks like the progress claimed was a mirage.

In Canada, small business sentiment rose in April, an unexpected shift but likely due to local election results. The trade group that does this survey says it is still weak, but it is actually back to the levels that prevailed prior to the pandemic.

But Canadian housing starts sagged somewhat in March, coming in below February levels and what was expected. But they are now +6.9% higher than year-ago levels.

Indian loan growth reached +16.1% in the year to March according to official data released overnight. That is the fastest pace they have recorded since they started tracking this metric in April 2025.

In China, their construction machinery sector rose strongly in March with excavator sales up nearly +30%, of which domestic demand was up almost +24%.

Malaysian CPI inflation remained tame in March, up just +1.7%, although that was their highest rate since the beginning of 2025. They also reported that Q1-2026 economic activity rose +5.3%, and slightly less than the +5.5% expected.

Meanwhile, Singaporean exports were up +15.3% from a year ago, their second fasted monthly rise since mid 2024.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.24%, down -1 bp from this time Saturday and the same for the week. 

The price of gold will start today down -US$28 at US$4829/oz. Silver is down -50 USc at US$81/oz.

American oil prices are down -50 USc at just under US$84, while the international Brent price is also down -50 USc, and now at US$90.50/bbl. These new levels are down -US$12 and -US$4/bbl respectively. The North American rig counts fell again. Tonight, all eyes will be on the IEA's April update of the global oil situation.

The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from Saturday at this time at 58.8 USc, up +30 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.1 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at just on 50 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today also unchanged from Saturday at just over 62.2 but up +20 bps for the week.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$74,842 and down -3.0% from this time Saturday. A week ago it was US$72,976. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.1%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Kia ora.

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news of little progress in renewed US-Iran 'peace talks'. They seem to have descended into talks about extending the ceasefire rather than resolving any issues. The Strait of Hormuz is still essentially closed. Complicating the oil supply picture is that US crude inventories fell by -9.1 mln barrels last week, far exceeding analysts’ expectations for a modest +154,000-barrel increase. This is actually a big deal and has driven the oil price higher today.

In the US, initial jobless claims rose to 214,000 last week, but not as high as seasonal factors would have indicated. There are now 1.89 mln people on these benefits, less than this time last year but more than two years ago.

But American industrial production fell in March from February, its first fall in four months. That makes it only +0.7% higher than year-ago levels, and hardly a surge in re-shoring. If it wasn't for the growth of AI centers and the electricity required to run them, this would have been a very disappointing result - and it probably is more most companies.

That said, the latest update from the Philadelphia Fed's factory survey was quite positive in April, driven by good growth in new orders. Of course, they are measured in nominal dollars and these firms reported notable rises in inflation, for both costs and prices.

In China, new home prices across 70 key cities fell -3.4% in March from a year ago, a minor worsening from a -3.2% decline in February. That was the 33rd straight month of contraction and the steepest drop since May 2025. Pre-owned home sales prices fell harder although for the first time in a while some key cities recorded month-on-month rises in prices.

China said its Q1-2026 GDP expansion was up 5.0%, and better than the 4.8% expected and the official target of "about 4.5%". And its industrial output was up +5.7% in March, they said. But their retail sales only grew 1.7% which will have been a disappointment because they really need a better rise in internal demand. All the good data reported is somewhat underlined by their data that shows electricity production fell again and for a fourth month, up just +1.4% from March 2025.

Australia's March labour market report was pretty tame. The employment rose by +17,900 (about the +20,000 expected) and the number of unemployed people fell by -4,000 in the month. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3%. Full-time employment increased by +52,500 to 10,174,400 (after the -27,700 fall in February) while part-time employment decreased by -34,600 to 4,593,300..

The expected inflation rate rose by 0.7 percentage points in April to 5.9% in Australia. It was 5.2% in March. The sharp rise in April reflects the recent spike in oil prices, and makes it its highest since November 2022. In contrast, wage change expectations have remained unchanged for the past five months.

In Australia, the big fire at the Geelong Vic. refinery, one of only two in the country, has major implications for Australia's fuels. They will need to import more from a global system already strained with demands on it. (The other one is the Ampol one in Brisbane.) Talk of needing emergency fuel savings measures, especially in Victoria, are growing.

Global container freight rates dipped -3% last week from the prior week to be little-changed from a year ago. But bulk cargo freight rates rose +16% last week, and are now almost double what they were this time last year.

Global travel rose +4.1% in 2025 according to new research with 80 mln people on the move. But they are increasingly avoiding the US where visitor numbers fell -5.5%. The main gainer is China where visitor numbers rose +9.9% and is predicted to eclipse the US has the main global destination - at this rate in just three years. It is a fast reversal.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.31%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday. 

The price of gold will start today little-changed, down just -US$5 at US$4488/oz. Silver is down -50 USc at US$78.50/oz.

American oil prices are up +US$2.50 at just over US$95/bbl, while the international Brent price is up US$4, and now at US$99.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are also down -20 bps at 82.2 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today also down -20 bps from yesterday at just over 62.2.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$74,361 and up +0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.5%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again on Monday.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Kia ora.

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news financial markets are betting Trump will endlessly extend the ceasefire with Iran and the crisis there will fade. Ships are getting through the Strait of Hormuz despite the US's 'blockade'. But there remains plenty of high-stakes risks, especially as Chinese navy warships are heading to the region. But Iran holds all the long-term cards.

In the US, Trump has renewed his threats to fire Fed boss Powell for 'corruption', a clear misdirection play that has few falling for it. If he did, it still remains uncertain how this would play out, or even whether he has the authority to do so.

US mortgage applications rose slightly last week with a return of better refinance activity. But activity for new home purchases slipped lower.

The US Fed's Beige Book survey found the conflict in the Middle East being cited as a major source of uncertainty that complicated decision-making around hiring, pricing, and capital investment, with many firms adopting a wait-and-see posture. It also found signs of consumer financial strain, increased price sensitivity, and rising demand at food banks and other social service organizations. But spending among higher-income consumers was resilient, they reported.

The April New York Empire factory survey revealed at sharp rise in costs and prices, but it expanded anyway and better than expected on a rise in new orders. But optimism waned and capital spending plans weakened.

Meanwhile home builders in the US are doing it tough with widespread discounting and incentive use to spur weak sales. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell to its lowest since September in March when a rise was anticipated in this sector.

There was a big surprise out of Japan yesterday. Machinery orders rose +13.6% in February from January, to be +24.7% higher than year-ago levels. This was after January orders were up +13.7%. The February year-on-year gain was three time higher than what was expected. (Japan has been drinking some Taiwan juice.) But a lot has happened since. Japanese manufacturers' confidence posted its biggest month-on-month drop in ​more than three years in April, dampened by surging oil prices and supply-chain disruptions caused ‌by the Middle East conflict, the Reuters Tankan poll showed.

Meanwhile, EU industrial production rose more in February from January than expected, and the decline from a year ago was less than expected. This data is inflation adjusted, but still, it isn't particularly positive.

In Australia, long term permanent immigrant arrivals bounced back strongly in February from January to +14,100 for the month but it was still -4.4% lower than for February 2025 and -14% lower than February 2024. For the year to February, permanent arrivals totalled +141,660, down more than -10% from a year ago and the least since September 2023.

And Australian prime minister Albanese has been in Brunei where he secured substantial oil and fertiliser supply agreements.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.28%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday. 

The price of gold will start today down -US$44 at US$4493/oz. Silver is up +US$1.50 at US$79/oz.

American oil prices are up +US$1 at just under US$92.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is also up US$1, and now at US$95.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is essentially unchanged from yesterday at this time at 59.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 82.5 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at just on 50.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today down -10 bps from yesterday at just on 62.4.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$74,1867 and down -0.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/- 0.9%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Kia ora.

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news the IMF has downgraded its global forecasts and said the world's economy is drifting into unpalatable conditions. A third recession since 2000 is possible, they say. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed by the actions of both combatants. "Talks" are supposedly going on which is exciting equity markets. But bond and currency markets are bracing for stagflation.

But first up today, the overnight dairy Pulse auction brought the expected lower prices, with WMP down -1.8% from the prior week's full auction event, SMP down -1.9%, and butter down -3.7%. These shifts are in USD, and with the rising NZD they will be deeper. Butter in fact is now at its lowest level since January 2024, a 27 month low.

In the US, their labour market does not appear to be cracking according to the high-frequency weekly data from the ADP Pulse tracking. US private employers added +39,250 jobs per week in March. This is a sharp increase from the +26,000 weekly jobs created in the prior period and is the fourth consecutive week of improvement in hiring.

The March NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to its lowest since April 2025 and this new level is lower than the lower level expected. They said "the dramatic spike in oil prices has spooked consumers and owners alike. Small business owners are having to absorb those higher input costs and pass them along to their customers”. Their uncertainty measure spiked.

Meanwhile US producer prices rose less than the expected +4.6% jump in March, 'only' rising +4.0% according to official data. Still, that is the fastest rise since February 2023.

China's March exports rose only a modest +2.5% from a year earlier, whereas their imports rose a startling +27.8%. Despite that, they has so much headroom they still managed to record a trade surplus of +¥355 bln / US$51 bln in March, although about half of what was anticipated.

Yesterday, Singapore tightened their monetary policy in a new effort to ensure inflation does not ruin their economy.

In Australia, consumer sentiment has dived lower. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell heavily in April, falling by a level only exceeded in the depth of the pandemic.

Australian business confidence has plunged dramatically as well. It fell -29 index points, the second largest monthly fall in the survey’s history – with falls of this magnitude previously only seen in the GFC and the onset of the pandemic. Current conditions changed little, but the sentiment outlook has crashed pretty much in the same way consumer sentiment has. Forward orders fell. Costs rose +3.0% in the quarter, more than twice as fast as prices charged (+1.1%).

So it will be little surprise to know that the RBA is worried, really worried. Australia faces a difficult macro backdrop. In a fireside chat, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser warned of the “nightmare” scenario where inflation accelerates even as growth weakens, complicating policy choices. He was speaking at a New York event.

We all understand that the US abandoning its strategic role in the global economy means new alliances and connections will grow to replace them. But not all of those will be welcome. We should note that the Indonesian President is in Moscow, seeking a realignment with them. It is a balance from recent 'deals' with the US. The US Administration looks just like the Putin Administration to Jakarta.

The IMF now says global inflation is expected to average 4.4% in 2026, up from their projected 3.8% in their January review. They also downgraded their global growth outlook, unsurprising given the mess we are all working through..

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.25%, down -5 bps from this time yesterday. 

The price of gold will start today up +US$98 at US$4836/oz. Silver is up +US$4 at US$77.50/oz.

American oil prices are down -US$7.50 at just on US$91.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -US$4.50, and now at US$94.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is up +50 bps from yesterday at this time at 59.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 82.8 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just on 50.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today up +40 bps from yesterday at just on 62.5.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$74,709 and up +3.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.8%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Kia ora.

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news the US blockade on the Strait of Hormuz is starting, and a notable feature is that no other country has agreed to join it. Oil prices have risen, along with prices for many other products that rely on trade from the Persian Gulf.

The last tankers to exit the Gulf are now arriving at Asian refineries, so the crunch is ahead of us, and getting closer.

In the US, existing home sales dipped in March as buyers held back on the growing uncertainty. Analysts had expected a dip but this one was slightly larger than anticipated at -3.6%, taking the annual sales rate below 4 mln for the first time since June 2025. It is now also lower on a year-on-year basis. Of course, unsold inventory rose, although not alarmingly.

But there was a larger retreat in building consents in Canada, falling -8.4% in February from January, down -11.5% from a year ago. Most of this was caused by a sharp -24% in non-residential building consents. In fact, housing consents rose +6.4% in the month, led by multi-unit construction.

And there are by-elections in Canada, with most observers seeing Prime Minister Carney in a much stronger position after the votes are counted, no longer leading a minority government.

In China, new yuan loans came in at ¥2.99 tln in March, below the ¥3.36 tln in the same month in 2025, and lower than the ¥3.4 tln forecasted to be their lowest March since 2021.

And a key Chinese rare earth producer has raised its prices +45% for Q2-2026, to a level that is double what it was in Q2-2025. It was their largest quarterly hike since 2023.

India's CPI inflation is rising, continuing a trend that started in November. It was at +3.4% in March, its highest since February 2025. Food prices were up +3.7%. Having noted that, we should also note that a slightly larger rise was anticipated.

Aluminium prices continue to rise, and are now approaching the very unusual peak we saw in February 2022.

And in Australia, we should note that a final court ruling is due any time now on the decades-long dispute over whether Gina Reinhart's claim to the Hancock mining fortune is valid. Could be some fun fireworks ahead.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.30%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday.

The price of gold will start today down -US$9 at US$4738/oz. Silver is little-changed at US$75.50/oz.

American oil prices are up +US$2.50 at just on US$99/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$4, also now at US$99/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 82.7 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just on 50 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today up +20 bps from yesterday at just on 62.1.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$72,231 and up +1.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.3%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Kia ora.

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news the US President has made ever more threats against Iran, now saying the US will blockade the Straits of Hormuz against friend and foe. The main losers will be the Gulf States that supported him. Iran probably foresees another TACO playing out. It is all very juvenile. But it does mean disruption will continue. And that inflation will stay higher for longer.

But first, here in New Zealand in the week ahead, we will get updated data about migration, retail (electronic cards) and CPI data about food and other selected items. We will also get the PSI (today), and the March REINZ data later in the week

In Australia, the week will be about business confidence (NAB survey) and consumer confidence Westpac survey) as well as the March labour market results, with the economy expected to have added around 20,000 jobs in March, while the jobless rate is seen holding steady at 4.3%.

The development in the Middle East will remain the driver of global financial market movements, with current agreements proving fragile and energy exports from the region not yet restarted. The impacts on producer prices in the US are expected to show up in their PPI data.

In China, a heavy data calendar will provide investors with fresh insight into their economy’s performance. GDP growth for Q1 is expected to accelerate to 5.0% from 4.5% in Q4 2025. The country’s trade surplus is also projected to widen slightly to US$112 bln in March, up from US$102 bln a year earlier. Meanwhile, industrial production and retail sales are likely to have slowed in March. New yuan loans are expected to rise to ¥3.4 tln.

In Japan, it will be about machinery orders. In India, about a rising inflation rate.

On Friday in the US, their CPI inflation rate jumped to 3.3% in March, about the expected rise. This was all due to fuel prices, especially petrol and diesel. Core inflation, which excludes this and food also moved up but more modestly, to a 2.7% rate. The Fed will be watching to see if this is transitory, or building in.

Still, US oil rig counts are not rising in response to these higher prices. Actually, they fell slightly. With US crude prices higher than Middle East prices, those producers have decided the best strategy is 'do nothing' and milk the benefits.

So it will be no surprise to know that the University of Michigan sentiment index plummeted in their latest survey to a historic low in early April, far below both market expectations and last year’s low level. Sentiment declined across all demographics, as well as every index component, emphasising the broad-based drop. (But it is also worth noting that this survey was taken before the 'ceasefire' claims.)

Also, there was no growth in US factory orders in February from January, well before the Iran conflict. From a year ago they were up +4.0%, most of that coming earlier in the year.

Take a look at this: it is the share price history for FirstCash, an American pawn shop operator. Set the chart to 'MAX'. They have more than 3,000 pawn stores in 29 US states, and business is booming.

In Canada, their March labour market report showed little-change, with overall employment rising a minor +14,000 holding at just over 21 mln. There were also few changes in either full-time or part-time employment, and the jobless rate stayed unchanged at 6.7%

In Korea, their central bank kept its policy interest rate unchanged at 2.25%. They have an inflation date of 2.2% but expect this to rise in the current environment.

China said its CPI inflation rate was +1.0% in March from a year ago, a smaller rise than expected and lower than the February +1.3% rate (which was a three year high). Food prices only rose +0.3% year-on-year, restrained by pork and fresh vegetables. Beef prices were up +7.8% from a year ago, lamb prices up +6.8%. Dairy product prices fell -0.7% on the same basis.

China also released its producer price data today which shows them suddenly out of deflation, with PPI up +0.5% from a year ago in March, the first time since September 2022, and prior to the pandemic distortion, the first time since early 2019.

There was a sharp drop in vehicle sales in China in March (down -8.8%) after Beijing cut subsidies. That has turned their automakers to chasing export orders, and their appetite is desperate, and a threat to most of the world's other carmakers.

In Taiwan, their export machine delivered another spectacular result in March, after the easing in February. Their exports were up to yet another record high of US$80 bln, a gain of +62% from the same month a year ago. Imports were up +59% on that same basis.

German inflation was confirmed at 2.7% in March, the same as their preliminary estimate, and back up to levels last seen in January 2024.

In Hungary, early results seem to favour the Tisza opposition and against Victor Orban's Fidesz. But Orban controls much of the election apparatus so it will need to be an overwhelming result to defeat him. Turnout was reported to be high.

In Australia, the recent Albanese trip to Singapore to source fuel, especially diesel, caps an effective open-chequebook campaign to acquire what they need, with a virtual armada of ships to arrive in Australia over the next few weeks. The list here is interesting. We count 56 ships in that wave, some even from the US.

It is also probably worth noting that China said it will ban exports of sulphuric acid, a move that will handicap copper mining, among other industries including the fertiliser industries. The copper price rose. And of course the sulphur price was already at a record high before that move. The urea price rose, back to the pandemic extremes. To be clear, there is no formal Chinese announcement of this latest curb, only producers there telling clients that they have had instructions from Beijing to block suppling them from May.

And the IMF said the war on Iran will mean slower growth this year because of the destruction of energy infrastructure and supply chain disruptions. Not really 'news' but their analysis is compelling, and 2026 could be a write-off for any 'recovery'.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.32%, up +1 bp from this time Saturday but down -3 bps from this time last week. 

The price of gold will start today down -US$21 at US$4747/oz, but up +US$71 for the week. Silver is down -US$1 at US$75.50/oz.

American oil prices are holding at just on US$96.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is still at just on US$95/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$110.50 and US$109/bbl respectively.

The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from Saturday at this time at 58.4 USc. But that is a +150 bps appreciation (+2.8%) from this time last week. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps to 82.7 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at just on 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today down -10 bps from Saturday at just on 61.9, or up +110 bps (+2.0%) for the week

The bitcoin price starts today at US$71,192 and down -2.4% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.3%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Kia ora.

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news the Middle East ceasefire deal is still an imaginary figment.

Meanwhile, US real personal spending rose just +0.1% in February from January after stagnating in January. The few places of expansion were vehicle sales, healthcare, and financial services. This data shows why most Americans don't feel like they are making economic progress. Worse, real disposable personal income fell -0.5% in February.

And the final update of US Q4-2025 economic activity was revised lower yet again. You may recall it was originally touted as a +4.4% growth rate (from the prior quarter). Then the second estimate pegged it at +1.7%. This final update has dropped it to +0.5%, with revisions that reveal lower investment and consumer spending. Year-on-year in real terms, the US economy was +2.0% larger than in Q4-2024, and that is the slowest expansion since Q4-2022, and before that (and except during the pandemic), Q1-2019.

US initial jobless claims rose more than expected to 203,000 last week, far more than seasonal factors would have accounted for (188,000). There are now 1,928 mln people on these benefits, less than a year ago, but more than two years ago.

The April USDA WASDE report shows smaller US beef production, and they raised their beef import forecast based on recent trade data and continued strong demand for lean processing beef (like from New Zealand).

In Canada, there is some intriguing politics to note. Mark Carney leads a minority, coalition government. But recent defections from the Conservatives, and likely by-election results, could see his Liberal Party governing on its own very soon as a majority party. They are cashing in on Carney's surging popularity.

In Japan, consumer confidence retreated sharply in March from February which was the highest figure since April 2019. The trigger for the fallback is the global uncertainty and the latest data takes their sentiment levels back to those of May 2025.

Malaysia said its industrial production rose +3.1% in February from a year ago. This was sharply less than the +5.5% expected.

Meanwhile, German exports rose more than expected, up +2.9% in February from a year ago, and that was despite a -7.5% fall to the US and a -2.5% fall to China. Their imports rose +1.5% from a year ago.

We should also note that Anthropic's new AI model is getting eye-catching attention. It's abilities has scared even its own developers who have warned Big Tech to prepare for major disruption. Current cyber security is about to get busted big-time.

Global container freight rates rose just +1% last week from the prior week to be +2% higher than year-ago levels. And that was despite sharp increases in China-EU rates that have been roiled by the Middle East conflicts. Bulk cargo rates rose +3.3% over the past week to be +60% higher than year-ago levels.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.29%, up +1 bp from this time yesterday. 

The price of gold will start today up +US$59 at US$4799/oz. (It's record high is US$5422/oz.) Silver is up +US$1.50 at US$76.50/oz.

American oil prices are up +US$3 at just on US$99/bbl, while the international Brent price is up a bit less at just under US$97/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is up +40 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.7 USc. Against the Aussie we have risen +10 bps to 82.8 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just on 50 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today up +30 bps from yesterday at just over 62.2.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$72,330 and up +0.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.5%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again on Monday.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Kia ora.

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news the US-announced ceasefire with Iran is struggling to hold, with Iran accusing the US and Israel of violations, and Iran launching attacks (counter-attacks?) on Gulf state assets. Israel seems very uncommitted to the US claims. There are thousands of ships waiting to transit the Strait of Hormuz, but they must first pass Iran's new gatekeeper reviews.

The oil price has fallen back but only to mid-March levels and still +50% higher than the levels that prevailed at the start of March. And this is doing nothing to restore deliveries of refined product.

However, first in the US, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its March 18 meeting, which exposed how isolated Steven Miran is on that committee. In fact, some members were open to rate hikes at that time. The vast majority of participants judged that upside risks to inflation and downside risks to employment were elevated, and the majority noted that these risks had increased with developments in the Middle East. They saw the conflict in the Middle East would likely lead to more persistent increases in energy prices and these higher input costs would be more likely to pass through to core inflation. Those risks are likely still there since their meeting given that crude oil prices had risen from US$63/bbl to US$95/bbl when they met, and are at that same level today.

US mortgage applications stayed low last week, restrained by lower refi activity.

Meanwhile, and in an odd move against the mood shift today, investors got higher risk premiums for the US Treasury 10 year bond auctioned today. The median yield came in at 4.23%, compared to the 4.16% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.

In China, a surge in heavy truck sales, especially LNG and EV versions, is bolstering a view that 2026 will turn out positively for them. Some of this was just a rebound from a weak, holiday-affected February. But those truck sales were at a five year high in March.

Taiwan's CPI inflation rate showed no reaction to the events in March at all, which does seem a bit unusual and an outlier result.

There was an Indian central bank review of their monetary policy overnight, and they left their rate unchanged at 5.25%.

In Europe, they reported February producer prices fell -2.7% from a year ago. But this is mainly due to the February 2025 base being unusually elevated.

They also reported that EU retail sales volumes were up +1.7% in February from a year ago.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.28%, down -7 bps from yesterday.

The price of gold will start today up +US$64 at US$4740/oz. Silver is up +US$3 at US$75/oz.

American oil prices are down -US$20 at just on US$95/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -US$15, also at just on US$95/bbl. The traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is moving again, but only for those that pay Iran's 'reconstruction tax'. The US has effectively shifted this waterway from being open and free, to an Iranian asset and chokepoint.

The Kiwi dollar is up +120 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.3 USc. Against the Aussie we have risen +60 bps to 82.7 AUc. Against the euro we are up +70 bps at just on 49.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today up +100 bps from yesterday at just under 61.9.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$71,919 and up +4.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just on +/- 3.3%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Kia ora.

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news most things are in abeyance until noon (NZT) when the latest Trump genocidal threats on Iran come to a head. Financial markets are waiting to see how this plays out. And of course the Strait of Hormuz is completely shut now. Commodity prices reflect that added pressure, fertiliser prices especially.

But first today, the overnight dairy auction brought a headline decline of -3.4% in USD terms, but that is only a -0.8% in USD terms. But actually things were better than this because these changes are from the prior full auction result three weeks ago. Today's results area actually gains from last week's dairy Pulse events for most items, including both SMP and WMP. The big drop however came for butter (-8.1%) and Mozzarella (-6.2%), both items that don't feature at the Pulse events. So, overall, today's dairy event is really one where prices have stabilised over the past few weeks. This is so, even though global dairy markets seem well-supplied from many sources.

In the US, their Logistics Managers Index has shot up in March to its highest since May 2022 in the pandemic. This is entirely due to a very sharp rise in freight costs, but a contraction in transportation capacity happened at the same time. Warehousing capacity contracted as well. PPI inflation is getting well embedded now.

Meanwhile, the weekly ADP employment Pulse report delivered an unexpected +26,000 jobs gain last week, the most since this new tracking started.

However, this was not supported by the latest (February) durable goods order report that fell much more than expected, down -1.4% from January and its third consecutive decline. That makes it just +0.8% higher than year-ago levels and well below the PPI inflation rate.

And it was also not supported by the April update of the RCM/TIPP sentiment survey of 'economic optimism' which fell to its lowest level since June 2024.

Meanwhile, US consumer inflation expectations jumped from 3.0% in February to 3.4% in March. This may not have been as r=high as you may have expected, but the survey period covered the whole month, so is likely restrained by early-month responses.

China said its FX reserves fell -US$85 bln in March from February to US$3.34 tln, mainly due to changes in the USD:CNY exchange rate rather than an actual fall in reserves. It is a pullback from the all-time record high in February, back to levels that have generally prevailed since September 2025. Within this, their gold holding rose for a 17th consecutive month.

In Australian, their Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge recorded a significant jump in monthly inflation for March, up +1.3% from February. This was primarily influenced by an increase in transport, attributable to surging fuel prices. In annual terms, headline inflation reached +4.3% and has been at above the top-end of the 2–3% RBA target band for the past seven months. The monthly cost of living also increased in March, particularly for self-funded retirees.

The Australian service sector fell into contraction in March. It was a sharp fall from the February expansion. A drop in new orders and turbulent international conditions as a result of the war in the Middle East were the main reasons behind the fall in output. Making it hurt harder, inflationary pressures intensified.

The New York Fed's Global Supply Chain pressure index is rising, with the March result its highest since January 2023, although to be fair, so far the rises from May 2023 have all be quite gradual. Things could change quickly on that front, of course.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.35%, up +1 bp from yesterday.

The price of gold will start today back up +US$24 at US$4676/oz. Silver is down -US$1 at US$72/oz.

American oil prices are up +US$1 at just on US$115/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -50 USc at just under US$110/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is essentially unchanged from yesterday at this time at 57.1 USc. Against the Aussie we have dropped -50 bps however to 82.1 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at just on 49.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today down -15 bps from yesterday at just under 60.9.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$68,728 and down -1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.7%.

Join us at 2pm this afternoon when the RBNZ is release its latest OCR review. While not rate change is expected, commentary on how they see the current oil crisis playing out with inflation will bring intense interest.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Kia ora.

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news most of our trading partners are coming under much heavier input cost pressure, along with supply-chain disruption.

Meanwhile, US and Iran have rejected each other’s proposals to end the war. That is pushing up the price of oil. And in the US, the head of their largest bank is saying private credit losses will be much larger than most assume.

In the US, the widely-followed March ISM services PMI came in a touch lower than expected, and lower than for February. The strong activity component slowed very fast but is still expanding. This survey found employment contracting. It also found prices rising their fastest since October 2022. These firms are not waiting to push through recovery price increases this time.

Remember, The S&P Global services PMI released earlier found its first decline in activity since January 2023, employment was down amid their weakest rise in new orders for nearly two years. They also found steeper rises in both input costs and output prices in March. So very similar to the ISM version.

One of those input costs is fuel, and now petrol is up +38% and diesel is up +51% since the start of their war on Iran.

The Canadian services PMI is still contracting, extending that retreat to five straight months. However, the March shortfall was the least in that period. Inflation accelerated due to rising fuel and transportation costs Employment fell although overall confidence was up to six-month high.

The Singapore economy was still expanding at a moderate pace in March, but there were signs of slowdown. Their PMI dropped to its lowest seen in 2026 so far from softer growth in output and new orders. Input price inflation accelerated to a survey-record (ten year) high.

Singapore's retail sales fell in February from January on a seasonally-adjusted basis, down an unexpectedly large -4.1%. The year-on-year result isn't so relevant this month due to the skewed timing of Chinese New Year.

India's services PMI was still expanding fast in March, although continuing the receding growth trend they have had for more than eight months. Input price inflation climbed to a 45-month high and they had their weakest rise in new business and activity since January 2025. But they also had another strong upturn in services exports.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.34%, down -1 bp from yesterday. 

The price of gold will start today down -US$24 at US$4651/oz. Silver is holding at US$73/oz.

American oil prices are up +US$2.50 at just on US$114/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$1.50 at just under US$110.50/bbl, and still lower than US prices.

The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps at 57.1 USc. Against the Aussie we have dipped -10 bps to 82.6 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just on 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today up +15 bps from yesterday at just under 61.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$69,614 and up +3.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.3%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI