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Summary
In 2021, @Daniel Koktajlo wrote What 2026 Looks Like, in which he sketched a possible version of each year from 2022 - 2026. In his words:
The goal is to write out a detailed future history (“trajectory”) that is as realistic (to [him]) as [he] can currently manage
Given it's now 2025, I evaluated all of the predictions contained in the years 2022-2024, and subsequently tried to see if o3-mini could automate the process.
In my opinion, the results are impressive (NB these are the human gradings of his predictions):
Totally correct Ambiguous or partially correctTotally incorrectTotal20227007202354110202474516Total198633Given the scenarios Daniel gave were intended as simply one way in which things might turn out, rather than offered as concrete predictions, I was surprised that over half were completely correct, and I think he foresees the pace of progress remarkably accurately.
Experimenting with o3-mini produced showed some initial promise, but the [...]
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Outline:
(00:05) Summary
(01:38) Methodology
(03:59) Results
(04:02) How accurate are Daniel's predictions so far?
(07:14) Can LLMs extract and resolve predictions?
(08:03) Extraction
(12:49) Resolution
(13:47) Next Steps
(15:17) Appendix
(15:20) Prompts
(15:30) Raw data
---
First published:
Source:
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
---
Images from the article:
Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
Summary
In 2021, @Daniel Koktajlo wrote What 2026 Looks Like, in which he sketched a possible version of each year from 2022 - 2026. In his words:
The goal is to write out a detailed future history (“trajectory”) that is as realistic (to [him]) as [he] can currently manage
Given it's now 2025, I evaluated all of the predictions contained in the years 2022-2024, and subsequently tried to see if o3-mini could automate the process.
In my opinion, the results are impressive (NB these are the human gradings of his predictions):
Totally correct Ambiguous or partially correctTotally incorrectTotal20227007202354110202474516Total198633Given the scenarios Daniel gave were intended as simply one way in which things might turn out, rather than offered as concrete predictions, I was surprised that over half were completely correct, and I think he foresees the pace of progress remarkably accurately.
Experimenting with o3-mini produced showed some initial promise, but the [...]
---
Outline:
(00:05) Summary
(01:38) Methodology
(03:59) Results
(04:02) How accurate are Daniel's predictions so far?
(07:14) Can LLMs extract and resolve predictions?
(08:03) Extraction
(12:49) Resolution
(13:47) Next Steps
(15:17) Appendix
(15:20) Prompts
(15:30) Raw data
---
First published:
Source:
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
---
Images from the article:
Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
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