In this episode of The Milk Check, find out why some dairy producers may be eyeing the exit. Sarina Sharp, risk manager at Ag Business Solutions and the writer behind TC Jacoby’s Weekly Market Report joins the Jacoby team this week. Sarina brings invaluable insights as we dig into critical topics like:

Milk prices and financial stability: How long can dairy farmers survive with Class III prices dipping below $17?

Supply chain shifts: How whiplash tariffs, changing federal orders, and fluctuating demand are affecting the U.S. dairy market.

Bird flu and milk production: How the bird flu has changed U.S. milk production, and where it may strike next.

Tune in to The Milk Check episode 75: Exit stage left: Why some producers are selling out while they can. If you like milk (and we know you do), then pour yourself a mug and tune in for insights on how to navigate this uncertain landscape and stay ahead in the coming months.

Special Guest:

Sarina Sharp, risk manager, Ag Business Solutions, and market analyst for the Daily Dairy Report

The Jacoby Team:

Josh White, vice president, dairy ingredients

Ted Jacoby III, CEO & president, cheese, butter & dry ingredients

Mike Brown, vice president, dairy market intelligence

Gus Jacoby, president, fluid dairy ingredients & dairy support

Intro (with music):

Welcome to The Milk Check, a podcast from T.C. Jacoby & Company, where we share market insights and analysis with dairy farmers in mind.

Ted Jacoby III:

Welcome everyone to the March 28th, 2025, edition of The Milk Check, a T.C. Jacoby & Company podcast. It is my pleasure to welcome a couple of special guests to the podcast this week, first, Sarina Sharp of Ag Business Solutions and the Daily Dairy report. Welcome to the podcast, Sarina. Most of you know that Sarina is also the writer of the T.C. Jacoby Weekly Market Report, which we publish every Friday. Sarina, we're honored to have you join us today. More importantly, thank you for the partnership. I can't tell you how often I get compliments on the weekly report that you write for us, so thank you very much.

Sarina Sharp:

Thanks for having me. Thrilled to hear it.

Ted Jacoby III:

In addition, we have a few of our usual suspects: my brother Gus, head of our fluid group; Josh White, head of our dairy ingredients team, and I am excited to announce that Mike Brown, formerly of IDFA and Kroger fame, is joining the Jacoby team as our new vice president of Dairy Market Intelligence. Mike, I am excited to have you on the team, and I look forward to having you on this podcast as a regular presence.

Mike Brown:

Well, thank you, Ted. I'm delighted to be here. It's good to be back in markets and away from government regulation. I'm very excited about the opportunity. And Sarina, I am really looking forward to working with you. I've been a fan for decades now. Appreciate that opportunity to work with you as well.

Sarina Sharp:

Time flies.

Ted Jacoby III:

It sure does. So my first question is this. We've been talking for probably a couple of years now about the heifer replacements and the issue that's been evolving because many dairy farmers are breeding to beef simply because it's really hard to pass up $700 for a black cow rather than spending $3,000 to raise that calf into a heifer. But we're getting to the point where right now, for example, our traders that sell into the retail space, they're telling us demand's not that great. Those who are selling into the food service space are saying demand's not that great. Even our traders who export are telling us that Trump's rhetoric about tariffs is having an effect and making it difficult for us to export. In other words, demand is not that great on the horizon. Milk prices have come down. Class III price is probably going to be in the low 17s, maybe even into the high 16s in April. Are we getting to the point that we're starting to reach that line where dairy fa...